Braves vs. Astros World Series Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-10-27 14:57:51

• The Braves send Max Fried to the mound in Game 2, and Jose Urquidy will get the start for the Astros
• The Astros are small moneyline favorites at sportsbooks on Wednesday
• Read more for a fulling betting preview, including picks and predictions from our MLB betting analyst

Braves vs. Astros Odds

On Wednesday evening, the Atlanta Braves and the Houston Astros will play Game 2 of the 2021 World Series at Minute Maid Park. The Braves erupted for five runs in the first three innings in Game 1 en route to a 6 to 2 victory. This evening, Atlanta will send Max Fried to the hill as they seek a commanding 2-0 series lead. Houston will counter with Jose Urquidy. Oddsmakers are expecting an Astros win, pricing Houston as -120 home favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the World Series.

Read more: World Series MVP Odds

Braves Lean on Fried in Game 2

In 28 starts during the regular season, Fried posted a 3.04 ERA, 3.49 xERA,
and a 3.31 FIP. He was even more dominant after returning from the injured list at the beginning of May with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.09 FIP across his last 25 outings. In his last 12 trips to the
mound during the regular season, Fried delivered 12 quality starts, including a 1.56 ERA and a
2.65 FIP. In the division series, Fried held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless across six innings of work. He was similarly excellent against the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS, holding them to only two earned runs in six innings for his 14th straight quality start. Fried was tagged for five earned runs in his second start of the NLCS against Los Angeles, but bettors can label that performance as an outlier. Atlanta is in a fantastic position to take a commanding 2-0 series lead with their best pitcher on the hill tonight.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk-rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Joc Pederson have all been tremendous this postseason, each posting an OPS of .860 or better. Jorge Soler and Ozzie Albies saw their bats wake up in Game 1, which would be a tremendous boon for this offense if they can keep it up. Urquidy, who ranked in only the 32nd percentile in strikeouts this season, is an appetizing matchup for this Atlanta offense, whose main weakness is their poor contact skills. If the opposing pitcher cannot force them to swing-and-miss, Atlanta’s impressive power could be on display once again tonight.

Manager Brian Snitker has been recklessly aggressive with his top bullpen options this postseason, but it has proved to be a successful strategy to this point. Yet, he might have to be more mindful of his relief unit usage after Charlie Morton exited yesterday’s affair in the third inning with an injury. Tyler Matzek has appeared in 10 of Atlanta’s 11 playoff games. Luke Jackson has been called upon nine times. Will Smith has made eight trips to the mound. Other than A.J. Minter, who threw 43 pitches in relief last night, there are no usage concerns for tonight’s contest. Snitker should have everyone rested and available if needed

Astros to Start Urquidy

Urquidy was solid during the regular season with a 3.62 ERA, 3.87 xERA, and a 4.14 FIP through 20 turns in the rotation. However, he struggled to a 4.42 FIP when pitching at Minute Maid Park. Urquidy has only thrown 1.2 innings this October, which resulted in a 27.00 ERA and a 13.37 FIP. His lack of consistent opportunities on the mound could lead to rust being a significant factor tonight, as was the case when he pitched for the first time in 15 days against the Boston Red Sox during the American League Championship Series. Bettors should expect Atlanta to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Urquidy could be in for a rough outing.

Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk rate, and had the best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in nine of their 11 postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats from this group in this one, but they might find run-scoring opportunities hard to come by against a talented pitcher in Fried.

Houston’s relief unit has been much better than anticipated so far this postseason. Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly have formed a dominant foursome at the backend of this bullpen. The main concern for Manager Dusty Baker is the same concern that his opponent faces—a lack of depth. After forcing the bullpen to cover seven innings in Game 1, Baker has no choice but to go back to the well if needed in Game 2. Jake Odorizzi is likely the only pitcher unavailable for today’s action after he tossed 42 pitches yesterday.

Braves-Astros Pick

Atlanta has a significant starting pitching advantage in Game 2. Fried should have little trouble out-dueling Urquidy, who has thrown 1.2 innings in the last 24 days and has not appeared in a game since October 18. Houston has a dangerous offense, but Fried is capable of keeping the damage to a minimum. At plus-money, bettors should strongly consider a play on the Braves tonight.

PICKS: Braves ML (+100)

Image Credit: Imagn