Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 29th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | NYM | PHI | 25.2 | 2.45 | 3.85 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 6.9% | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| Hamels | PHI | NYM | 6 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 1.17 | 100.0% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Morton | PIT | BAL | 31 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 15.4% | 8.8% | 0.87 | 2.09 |
| Tillman | BAL | PIT | 32 | 3.38 | 3.97 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Young | SEA | NYY | 18 | 3.50 | 6.30 | 1.44 | 33.3% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 1.00 | 0.41 |
| Sabathia | NYY | SEA | 32 | 4.78 | 2.67 | 1.22 | 40.0% | 25.9% | 5.9% | 1.69 | 2.43 |
| Wood | ATL | MIA | 35 | 1.54 | 2.67 | 0.97 | 80.0% | 26.5% | 5.3% | 0.77 | 2.05 |
| Fernandez | MIA | ATL | 31.2 | 1.99 | 1.75 | 0.93 | 80.0% | 37.9% | 4.8% | 0.57 | 1.24 |
| Samardzija | CHC | CIN | 35.1 | 1.53 | 3.54 | 1.11 | 100.0% | 19.3% | 6.4% | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Simon | CIN | CHC | 27.2 | 1.30 | 4.38 | 0.96 | 100.0% | 15.5% | 8.2% | 0.65 | 1.45 |
| Bedard | TBR | BOS | 9.2 | 7.45 | 5.73 | 2.17 | 12.0% | 14.0% | 0.00 | 1.08 | |
| Lackey | BOS | TBR | 32 | 4.22 | 3.05 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 1.41 | 1.09 |
| Kazmir | OAK | TEX | 33.1 | 1.62 | 2.93 | 0.85 | 80.0% | 24.2% | 4.7% | 0.27 | 1.55 |
| Perez | TEX | OAK | 38 | 1.42 | 3.50 | 0.92 | 60.0% | 17.0% | 6.7% | 0.00 | 2.58 |
| McGowan | TOR | KCR | 17 | 6.88 | 4.74 | 1.82 | 25.0% | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.59 | 0.72 |
| Vargas | KCR | TOR | 35 | 1.54 | 4.60 | 1.00 | 100.0% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | HOU | 30 | 3.00 | 3.71 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 23.6% | 8.9% | 0.60 | 0.86 |
| Cosart | HOU | WAS | 25 | 6.12 | 4.53 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 12.2% | 1.44 | 1.78 |
| Verlander | DET | CWS | 33 | 2.18 | 4.20 | 1.36 | 80.0% | 19.0% | 8.5% | 0.27 | 0.91 |
| Quintana | CWS | DET | 30 | 3.90 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 60.0% | 17.6% | 7.2% | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| Greinke | LAD | MIN | 29.1 | 2.45 | 1.97 | 1.00 | 60.0% | 34.2% | 4.3% | 1.84 | 1.52 |
| Gibson | MIN | LAD | 22.1 | 3.63 | 4.92 | 1.49 | 50.0% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| Lohse | MIL | STL | 34 | 2.38 | 3.56 | 1.03 | 60.0% | 22.3% | 7.2% | 0.53 | 1.23 |
| Lynn | STL | MIL | 30 | 3.30 | 2.95 | 1.23 | 40.0% | 27.9% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Chatwood | COL | ARI | 19 | 4.26 | 3.46 | 1.05 | 33.3% | 21.1% | 6.6% | 1.89 | 1.73 |
| Bolsinger | ARI | COL | 13.2 | 5.27 | 3.19 | 1.67 | 50.0% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 0.66 | 2.00 |
| Kluber | CLE | LAA | 32.1 | 3.90 | 3.25 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 21.4% | 4.3% | 0.56 | 1.44 |
| Weaver | LAA | CLE | 30.2 | 4.11 | 4.66 | 1.16 | 40.0% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.47 | 0.58 |
| Stults | SDP | SFG | 26 | 4.15 | 4.82 | 1.50 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 1.73 | 1.03 |
| Cain | SFG | SDP | 31 | 4.35 | 3.97 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 19.1% | 7.6% | 1.45 | 1.26 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
THERE IS A LOT OF RAINY WEATHER FORECASTED ACROSS THE LEAGUE, SO PLEASE CHECK EVERYTHING BEFORE DECIDING ON AN ARM.
LA Dodgers at Minnesota has already been postponed
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. PIT) – Tillman’s last outing is a perfect microcosm of his downside. He allowed seven runs in 5.7 IP thanks in large part to three homers. He still fanned seven and actually pulled a win, salvaging his night. The Pirates don’t present nearly the same challenge as the Blue Jays. They have some home run pop, but if Tillman avoids mistakes to Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen, he should be able to emulate something like his start in Detroit or his first effort against Toronto (both 8 IP gems).
Zack Greinke, LAD (at MIN) – PLAY PPD While the Twins have surprised on offense and actually hold the top wOBA against righties in the league, I still see this as a great opportunity for Greinke. The Twins succeed by waiting out pitchers, drawing walks, and then punishing him for the free passes. Well, Greinke doesn’t allow free passes, he has an excellent 4.3% BB rate so it’ll be a battle of wills as the Twins try to leverage their league-best 13.3% BB rate against him.
CC Sabathia, NYY (v. SEA) – Sabathia has the same 4.78 ERA we saw from him in 211 IP last year, but this year’s comes with much more impressive skills including a 26% K rate and 6% BB rate in 32 IP. Homers have plagued him and you can’t even really blame his home park as this is just his second home start. The Mariners are a punchless bunch as a whole and they’ve been dominated by far worse arms than Sabathia. His modest results to date offer a discount at several outlets creating a nice buying opportunity.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. ATL) / Alex Wood, ATL (at MIA) – The follow up to the Game of the Year so far. Hopefully they can recreate the magic from last week, but even if not you should expect innings and strikeouts. Grabbing a win is a toss-up again, though.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at CIN) – I’m not sure this game is getting played, either, but have you noticed how great The Shark has been this year? The only thing missing so far has been the normal strikeout rate, but I have to wonder if he’s perhaps traded some strikeout firepower for more command-and-control and subsequently better results. He’s gone seven or more in each of his five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in each of them. I think the strikeout potential is still in there, too, which only adds to his intrigue.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Justin Verlander, DET (at CWS) – After five strikeouts in his first two starts spanning 14 IP, we’ve seen 22 in 19 IP from Verlander in the three starts since then including seven in seven against these White Sox last week. JV jumps down from his usual status in the best buys because this White Sox offense is no joke, especially at home.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at HOU) – Gonzalez is dealing with some shoulder tightness which is the reason he’s not in the best buy tier against the Astros. It cut his last start short after just five innings and 83 pitches. He’s not the auto-start you might have originally believed him to be when first looking at the slate of games today.
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. NYM) – Hamels’ career against the Mets has been rather suspect. Even the year of his best ERA – a 3.20 in 25.3 IP – he still went 0-4. He has nice skills against them with a 23.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate, but it just hasn’t translated into much via results: 4.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 160 IP. Despite the hit-n-miss success, I still rate him as a good buy. The Mets offense is garbage. They are fourth-worst in wOBA so far this season and they are fourth-worst since the start of 2013, too.
Jon Niese, NYM (at PHI) – Niese has quietly been very good, allowing three or fewer runs in all four of his starts. He’s done so against a nice list of opponents, too, facing the Reds, Angels, Braves, and Cardinals. The abominable bullpen of the Mets could cost you a win even with a strong Niese effort, but he’s priced to buy at most outlets.
Scott Kazmir, OAK (at TEX) / Martin Perez, TEX (v. OAK) – This battle of southpaws could be really fun to watch. They get it done differently, but both should go deep into this one. Kazmir looks even better than he did down the stretch with Cleveland last year. His control has been outstanding as he’s yielded just six walks in his first 33.3 IP. Consider that he allowed nearly six walks per nine in his MLB debut which coincidentally also went 33.3 IP. Perez has been even better than Kaz with an AL-best 1.42 ERA and he’s been succeeding via poor contact. He has a 61% groundball rate and he’s yet to allow a home run. Obviously there is some regression forthcoming, but the A’s are just below league average against lefties – thanks in part to Perez, who threw his second straight shutout against them last time out.
Lance Lynn, STL (v. MIL) / Kyle Lohse, MIL (at STL) – Both starters netted a quality start to kick off this series last night and we are likely to see something similar tonight with Lynn and Lohse. Lynn carries higher upside thanks to his strikeout potential, but Lohse has actually been missing bats at a great clip so far this season. I trust the skill more in Lynn, though. Lohse makes up for it by accumulating innings as he’s gone nearly seven innings per start so far this season. For Lynn, the Brewer offense is hobbling with Ryan Braun and Jean Segura out while for Lohse the Cards offense simply hasn’t been sharp to date.
Jason Vargas, KC (v. TOR) – Vargas has been stupid-good so far this season. No one believes his 1.54 ERA will last (hell, even the studs aren’t holding that kind of ERA all season), but the end isn’t necessarily nigh for him with this matchup. The Jays offense has just a .290 wOBA against lefties so far this season and they were among the league’s worst last year with a .296 mark (23rd in baseball). If he’s still cheap at your chosen outlet, I could see rolling him out there once more.
John Lackey, BOS (v. TB) – Lackey rebounded from a pair of 6 ER duds with a brilliant effort against the Yankees going eight strong allowing one run on seven hits and zero walks with 11 Ks. The Rays have quietly hit righties very well while struggling against southpaws. Lackey’s a risk, he’s been guardrail-to-guardrail this year, but there is definitely some worthwhile upside to explore.
Matt Cain, SF (v. SD) – Similarly, Cain has been guardrail-to-guardrail so far this season. He has 5 ER and 7 ER duds, but he’s allowed just 3 ER in his other three starts combined. One of those gems came against the Padres in San Diego (7 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, and 8 K). They’re the worst in baseball against righties with a .266 wOBA so I think we could see a repeat.
Alfredo Simon, CIN (v. CHC) – Simon’s been fantastic filling in for Mat Latos and he should have at least another couple of weeks to continue his work. I don’t believe he’s going to maintain his 91% LOB rate, especially with a meager 15.5% K rate, but he’s been so cheap and so good that he’s still a nice value play.
Corey Kluber, CLE (at LAA) – I’m a huge Kluber fan and he showed how great he can be with his effort last time out, but he hasn’t been consistently great just yet. The Angels are definitely a high-octane offense, but I think Kluber has the talent to be a matchup-proof pick. With this matchup, he isn’t likely to be widely used so he could be a good “zag” pick who could pay off nicely while everyone else veers toward the more obvious picks.
Tyler Chatwood, COL (at ARI) – Chatwood improved his strikeout rate perhaps at the cost of his groundball rate (K rate up from 14 to 21% while the GB rate is down from 58 to 48%), a trade I’m all for him doing. The D’Backs aren’t as bad as they’ve shown thus far, but I wouldn’t mind Chatwood as a secondary option on the cheap today.
USE CAUTION:
Jered Weaver, LAA (v. CLE) – Weaver’s margin error has shrunk so much that I have a hard time trusting him much in the daily game. He gets knocked around by a team like Houston, but then goes to Detroit and Washington and puts up back-to-back 6 IP/1 ER gems. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside to mitigate some of his lesser starts, either. Just be careful.
Jose Quintana, CWS (v. DET) – He threw a baseline quality start against these Tigers last week, but it’s a low probability play to think we’d get much more out of him against this club.
Charlie Morton, PIT (at BAL) – Morton can be a great cheap option in the right matchup, but he’s mostly just a six inning guy who will give up between three and five runs without the Ks necessary to tolerate the four and five run efforts. I like Morton more in season-long fantasy than in the daily game. He’s going to have some big efforts where he mows down a lineup on a low pitch count with that heavy groundball approach, but targeting exactly when that will happen isn’t easy because he can tame good lineups just as easily as poor ones can nickel-and-dime him to death.
Eric Stults, SD (at SF) – Stults generally excels in pitcher’s parks, but even at his best he just doesn’t miss many bats. He can offer some value as a secondary or perhaps even best as a tertiary option for five-six solid innings.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. WAS) – He’s just far too sporadic to trust. His downside is day-ruining kind of awful.
Kyle Gibson, MIN (v. LAD) – PLAY PPD He kinda looks like Cosart did a season ago… much better results than his component skills deserve. He’s going to be a very volatile option and there’s no way I’d use him against this offense.
Mike Bolsinger, ARI (v. COL) – The Dodgers thrashed Bolsinger in his first start, but his 15/5 K/BB ratio in his 13.7 IP so far this season suggest that he might be a bit better than we originally though. I’m still not looking to test that theory against the Rockies, but I’m keeping an eye on Bolsinger as perhaps a cheap upside option against lesser opponents.
Chris Young, SEA (at NYY) – Cool 0.91 K/BB ratio.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Dustin McGowan, TOR (at KC)
Erik Bedard, TB (at BOS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | 0.281 | 3.50 | 0.335 | 3.55 | 0.320 | 0.854 | 0.270 | 3.44 | 0.232 | 96.25 | 64.9% |
| Hamels | 0.310 | 5.01 | 0.308 | 3.23 | 0.230 | 0.605 | 0.333 | 1.92 | 0.261 | 86.00 | 64.0% |
| Morton | 0.366 | 4.92 | 0.272 | 2.57 | 0.279 | 0.732 | 0.284 | 4.64 | 0.252 | 95.80 | 65.8% |
| Tillman | 0.328 | 4.02 | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.222 | 0.644 | 0.271 | 4.37 | 0.242 | 107.00 | 64.1% |
| Young | 0.298 | 1.59 | 0.363 | 7.50 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.241 | 5.25 | 0.227 | 101.67 | 57.0% |
| Sabathia | 0.297 | 4.42 | 0.349 | 4.92 | 0.250 | 0.659 | 0.298 | 4.27 | 0.248 | 103.20 | 67.6% |
| Wood | 0.278 | 2.32 | 0.291 | 2.82 | 0.237 | 0.649 | 0.276 | 2.80 | 0.216 | 101.40 | 67.3% |
| Fernandez | 0.267 | 3.00 | 0.209 | 1.35 | 0.238 | 0.680 | 0.304 | 1.51 | 0.195 | 99.00 | 67.9% |
| Samardzija | 0.335 | 4.18 | 0.306 | 3.83 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.284 | 2.78 | 0.231 | 105.20 | 65.8% |
| Simon | 0.301 | 3.00 | 0.249 | 2.18 | 0.218 | 0.608 | 0.185 | 3.88 | 0.17 | 98.50 | 63.7% |
| Bedard | 0.371 | 5.45 | 0.333 | 4.56 | 0.239 | 0.703 | 0.351 | 4.02 | 0.302 | 100.00 | 61.0% |
| Lackey | 0.295 | 3.23 | 0.334 | 4.14 | 0.264 | 0.765 | 0.337 | 3.65 | 0.273 | 98.20 | 70.5% |
| Kazmir | 0.253 | 3.28 | 0.326 | 3.78 | 0.305 | 0.808 | 0.239 | 2.34 | 0.183 | 95.20 | 67.0% |
| Perez | 0.311 | 2.68 | 0.301 | 3.28 | 0.226 | 0.664 | 0.252 | 2.59 | 0.206 | 101.80 | 62.1% |
| McGowan | 0.329 | 4.37 | 0.341 | 4.19 | 0.264 | 0.687 | 0.368 | 5.62 | 0.329 | 79.25 | 61.5% |
| Vargas | 0.338 | 2.56 | 0.316 | 3.94 | 0.217 | 0.639 | 0.229 | 3.94 | 0.214 | 108.20 | 64.1% |
| Gonzalez | 0.261 | 3.53 | 0.307 | 3.28 | 0.240 | 0.630 | 0.263 | 3.22 | 0.207 | 95.80 | 63.5% |
| Cosart | 0.273 | 2.53 | 0.337 | 4.40 | 0.242 | 0.690 | 0.229 | 5.33 | 0.215 | 88.60 | 62.5% |
| Verlander | 0.291 | 2.79 | 0.329 | 4.11 | 0.280 | 0.795 | 0.314 | 2.94 | 0.254 | 111.80 | 64.4% |
| Quintana | 0.332 | 3.51 | 0.304 | 3.63 | 0.293 | 0.850 | 0.300 | 4.25 | 0.267 | 102.40 | 62.7% |
| Greinke | 0.325 | 3.15 | 0.253 | 2.20 | 0.266 | 0.789 | 0.273 | 3.53 | 0.214 | 100.80 | 65.3% |
| Gibson | 0.382 | 5.71 | 0.324 | 5.63 | 0.260 | 0.765 | 0.306 | 3.40 | 0.259 | 97.00 | 58.2% |
| Lohse | 0.322 | 3.89 | 0.276 | 2.66 | 0.256 | 0.686 | 0.240 | 2.91 | 0.194 | 103.60 | 65.6% |
| Lynn | 0.348 | 5.07 | 0.286 | 3.13 | 0.266 | 0.742 | 0.308 | 3.52 | 0.237 | 104.60 | 62.9% |
| Chatwood | 0.304 | 2.45 | 0.329 | 4.19 | 0.249 | 0.679 | 0.220 | 5.09 | 0.214 | 87.00 | 59.0% |
| Bolsinger | 0.413 | 6.00 | 0.215 | 4.70 | 0.288 | 0.813 | 0.364 | 2.94 | 0.283 | 123.00 | 67.5% |
| Kluber | 0.330 | 4.05 | 0.309 | 3.71 | 0.255 | 0.751 | 0.353 | 2.59 | 0.284 | 98.20 | 67.4% |
| Weaver | 0.286 | 3.57 | 0.313 | 3.19 | 0.252 | 0.722 | 0.221 | 4.95 | 0.212 | 95.20 | 60.3% |
| Stults | 0.256 | 3.70 | 0.344 | 4.02 | 0.237 | 0.712 | 0.309 | 5.24 | 0.306 | 85.80 | 65.7% |
| Cain | 0.281 | 3.78 | 0.327 | 4.35 | 0.227 | 0.604 | 0.286 | 4.54 | 0.256 | 100.80 | 63.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window