Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 5th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | DET | NYY | 170.2 | 3.11 | 2.65 | 1.05 | 52.4% | 27.4% | 3.3% | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Kuroda | NYY | DET | 135.2 | 3.98 | 3.88 | 1.22 | 45.0% | 16.3% | 4.8% | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| Cueto | CIN | CLE | 162.2 | 2.05 | 3.02 | 0.92 | 76.2% | 26.1% | 6.8% | 0.72 | 1.54 |
| Tomlin | CLE | CIN | 86.2 | 4.47 | 3.26 | 1.19 | 23.1% | 21.3% | 2.8% | 1.66 | 1.03 |
| Wheeler | NYM | WAS | 127.2 | 3.60 | 3.57 | 1.33 | 55.0% | 23.0% | 9.4% | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 97.1 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 1.26 | 46.7% | 24.6% | 9.6% | 0.55 | 1.12 |
| Keuchel | HOU | PHI | 136.1 | 2.97 | 3.15 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 18.7% | 6.0% | 0.46 | 3.07 |
| Kendrick | PHI | HOU | 137.1 | 4.92 | 4.43 | 1.35 | 30.0% | 14.3% | 6.3% | 1.11 | 1.23 |
| Hand | MIA | PIT | 60.2 | 4.15 | 4.71 | 1.45 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 0.59 | 1.33 |
| Morton | PIT | MIA | 137.1 | 3.54 | 3.79 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 18.7% | 8.1% | 0.59 | 2.22 |
| Norris | BAL | TOR | 109.2 | 3.69 | 4.20 | 1.24 | 26.7% | 17.5% | 7.7% | 0.98 | 1.19 |
| Buehrle | TOR | BAL | 142 | 3.11 | 4.54 | 1.33 | 60.0% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 0.70 | 1.12 |
| Lincecum | SFG | MIL | 128.1 | 4.21 | 3.81 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.98 | 1.56 |
| Nelson | MIL | SFG | 23 | 4.30 | 3.66 | 1.30 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 0.78 | 1.50 | |
| Hahn | SDP | MIN | 53.2 | 2.01 | 3.32 | 1.02 | 57.1% | 25.4% | 9.9% | 0.34 | 2.25 |
| Hughes | MIN | SDP | 137.2 | 4.12 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 20.7% | 2.3% | 0.65 | 0.95 |
| Lewis | TEX | CWS | 102.1 | 5.98 | 4.28 | 1.73 | 11.8% | 17.7% | 7.1% | 1.14 | 0.78 |
| Danks | CWS | TEX | 136 | 4.50 | 4.59 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.26 | 0.98 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | STL | 54.1 | 3.64 | 4.12 | 1.29 | 57.1% | 16.4% | 7.1% | 1.16 | 1.58 |
| Lynn | STL | BOS | 133 | 2.98 | 3.86 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 21.5% | 9.1% | 0.47 | 1.35 |
| Wood | CHC | COL | 127 | 5.10 | 4.36 | 1.54 | 30.0% | 18.9% | 9.6% | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Anderson | COL | CHC | 40.1 | 3.12 | 3.77 | 1.39 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 7.6% | 0.22 | 2.66 |
| Duffy | KCR | ARI | 104 | 2.42 | 4.37 | 1.12 | 57.1% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Miley | ARI | KCR | 145.2 | 4.14 | 3.52 | 1.28 | 33.3% | 21.5% | 7.5% | 1.11 | 1.74 |
| Smyly | TBR | OAK | 105.1 | 3.93 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Hammel | OAK | TBR | 125.2 | 3.87 | 3.48 | 1.17 | 47.4% | 22.6% | 6.4% | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Santiago | LAA | LAD | 79 | 3.76 | 4.13 | 1.25 | 16.7% | 21.3% | 9.0% | 0.91 | 0.59 |
| Kershaw | LAD | LAA | 121.1 | 1.71 | 1.88 | 0.82 | 66.7% | 33.0% | 3.3% | 0.45 | 1.96 |
| Wood | ATL | SEA | 103.2 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 1.23 | 58.3% | 23.9% | 6.1% | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| Hernandez | SEA | ATL | 165.1 | 2.01 | 2.44 | 0.89 | 81.0% | 28.1% | 4.9% | 0.33 | 2.12 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. ATL)/*Clayton Kershaw LAD* (v. LAA)/*Johnny Cueto CIN* (at CLE)/*David Price DET* (at NYY) – Some guys are operating at a level that’s above real hardcore analysis for the daily game. What do we really need to say about these four that isn’t already known? They’ve all been excellent and their component numbers support the greatness so it really comes down to whether or not you can afford one of them in your desired lineup. I’ve ranked them how I would use them with Hernandez getting the best matchup of the bunch.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at WAS) – Since back-to-back 5 ER outings in mid-May, Wheeler has jumped on a 13-start hot streak that has seen him post a 2.77 ERA in 78 IP with 79 Ks and a 3.2 K:BB ratio. He was even better than that in July with a 1.67 ERA in five starts with 30 Ks in 32.3 IP. The Nats hit him for second of those 5 ER outings, but he’s pitching a lot better since then while the Nats are still the same solid-but-unspectacular offense against righties.
Jesse Hahn SD (at MIN) – If you didn’t get Hahn on any of your season-long fantasy teams, but you’re eager to try him out in the daily space, you’d better hurry. His season is quickly winding down with about six or seven starts left on his arm according to the Padres. He’s been a fantastic find for the Padres. Picked up from Tampa Bay in a spring deal, Hahn has dazzled both home and away with his best work actually coming on the road where he has a 1.50 ERA in 24 IP with 9.4 K9 and a 2.3 K:BB ratio. His curveball is absolute filth and the Twins don’t exactly fare well against righty curves meaning we could see his first career double-digit strikeout effort.
Lance Lynn STL (v. BOS) – Lynn’s walking too many of late (15 in 5 Jul starts), but it’s hard to argue with his 1.71 ERA and 32 Ks in 31.7 IP. He’ll drop a dud every once in a while, but he is having a really fantastic season. I was always worried that his lofty WHIP would keep his ERA relatively high, but he’s made it work this year despite a 1.31 WHIP.
Danny Duffy KC (at ARI) – Duffy catches the D’Backs at a terrible time for them. They lost Paul Goldschmidt for the season this week with a broken hand. He was the driving force in their attack against lefties with a 1.115 OPS in 73 AB. The only other regular with a 1.000+ OPS against lefties is also on the DL in the form of Chris Owings. Duffy’s been carrying the great ERA all year, but his component numbers are finally catching up.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at PHI) – Back-to-back huge outings have re-instilled confidence in Keuchel as a big-time option. Facing one of the league’s worst teams against lefties doesn’t hurt, either. Keuchel’s slider has been unreal in these last two outings, yielding a .167 OPS in 12 PA. When it’s working, Keuchel is extremely difficult.
Alex Wood ATL (at SEA) – Wood’s return to the rotation has been a resounding success with a 3.12 ERA in seven starts. Hilariously (or perhaps annoyingly if you rostered him), his worst two outings were 5 IP/4 ER duds against the Cubs and Padres, but he’s smashed everyone else. The M’s are the second-worst team in the league against southpaws this year at .635 OPS.
Phil Hughes MIN (v. SD) – I just don’t understand this recent meltdown by Hughes. He still has a brilliant 62/5 K:BB ratio in his last 68.3 IP, but the 5.14 ERA has made him nearly unusable on the daily landscape. He’s not walking anyone, he’s not allowing homers, and he’s missing plenty of bats. That is a recipe for success, especially against the Padres. I’m willing to still bet on Hughes.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (v. NYM) – He’s been a bit up and down lately, getting knocked around a bit in two of his last three. Overall, he’s still been great since his return from the DL. He has a 3.09 ERA in 46.7 IP with 47 Ks. The Mets give him a chance to get back on track as they’ve been one of the league’s worst teams against lefties.
Wade Miley ARI (v. KC) – Miley had a huge July with a 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in six starts spanning 40.3 IP with 36 Ks and a 4.0 K:BB ratio. Imagine how good he’d have been if he hadn’t given up 5 ER to Philly! Miley’s season ERA is still at 4.14 which keeps him very affordable.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (v. DET) – Kuroda had a rough April (5.28 ERA), but he’s been the Kuroda we know and expect in three months since with a 3.63 ERA in 106.7 IP. He only has a 6.3 K9 in that span, but his 3.6 K:BB ratio is excellent. The Tigers are obviously no joke offensively, but they aren’t an impenetrable force this year. It’d be interesting to see Kuroda and Price reenact their July 1st outing.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Charlie Morton PIT (v. MIA) – This is a pure matchups play as the Marlins haven’t been hitting well for a while now. I prefer Morton in season-long leagues due to his consistency, but on those rare nights when he’s missing plenty of bats, he can have a huge outing.
Josh Tomlin CLE (v. CIN) – Tomlin might be having a fantastic season if he could keep the ball in the yard. Of course, homers have always been his issue. His 1.75 HR9 rate has pushed his ERA up to 4.47 and masked his impressive 7.7 K:BB ratio. The 16.5% HR/FB rate is definitely high, but given his career-long HR issues, how much can we really expect it to regress? This matchup could work well for him, though. The Reds are 22nd in homers against righties with just 64 and only 25 of those have come on the road (28th in the league).
Jimmy Nelson MIL (v. SF) – With only four starts, one bad start can really tank your numbers. Nelson allowed 6 ER to the Cards on July 12th, but has a 2.41 ERA in his other three starts. The Giants have the third-worst OPS against righties since June 1st at .643, making them ripe for the picking.
Hector Santiago LAA (at LAD) – Since returning from a quick stint in Triple-A, Santiago has shifted seamlessly between the rotation and bullpen, posting a 2.81 ERA in 41.7 IP with seven starts in 10 appearances. He’s notched 40 Ks and just 12 BBs (3.3 K:BB ratio) in the same time. This is all after a 4.82 ERA in nine outings (seven starts) before the demotion. The Dodgers have always been susceptible against lefties, dating back to last year. They have a .673 OPS against them this year, 25th in baseball.
Brett Anderson COL (v. CHC) – I’m admittedly skeptical of Anderson. It seems that every time he gets going, an injury stops him and there is usually an awful outing or three before the injury overtakes him. Alas, he’s on an electric three-start run with a 1.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 18 Ks in 20.3 IP against the Pirates twice and his latest against these very same Cubs. For me, this is more of a reminder to keep an eye on him, but if you’re looking for a dirt-cheap option, this might work.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Drew Smyly TB (at OAK) – I’m not stacking against him, but I don’t love this matchup for him as the debut with his new team. The A’s ripped him for 5 IP/6 ER in Oakland back in late-May. Just be careful here.
- Kyle Kendrick PHI (v. HOU)
- Colby Lewis TEX (at CWS)
- Travis Wood CHC (at COL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 0.302 | 3.57 | 0.279 | 2.97 | 0.263 | 0.718 | 0.301 | 2.94 | 0.236 | 111.48 | 27.4% |
| Kuroda | 0.307 | 3.97 | 0.320 | 3.99 | 0.274 | 0.755 | 0.287 | 3.92 | 0.257 | 98.59 | 16.3% |
| Cueto | 0.249 | 1.89 | 0.241 | 2.18 | 0.263 | 0.751 | 0.229 | 3.08 | 0.181 | 107.61 | 26.1% |
| Tomlin | 0.296 | 4.10 | 0.365 | 4.93 | 0.241 | 0.669 | 0.298 | 4.11 | 0.265 | 94.40 | 21.3% |
| Wheeler | 0.358 | 4.80 | 0.268 | 2.70 | 0.240 | 0.687 | 0.311 | 3.54 | 0.245 | 101.23 | 23.0% |
| Gonzalez | 0.300 | 5.49 | 0.302 | 3.48 | 0.245 | 0.668 | 0.301 | 3.15 | 0.230 | 97.00 | 24.6% |
| Keuchel | 0.280 | 2.43 | 0.310 | 3.15 | 0.247 | 0.697 | 0.313 | 3.12 | 0.259 | 102.55 | 18.7% |
| Kendrick | 0.378 | 6.32 | 0.303 | 4.04 | 0.228 | 0.670 | 0.289 | 4.50 | 0.266 | 98.82 | 14.3% |
| Hand | 0.289 | 5.21 | 0.340 | 3.67 | 0.244 | 0.666 | 0.294 | 4.03 | 0.259 | 46.05 | 14.3% |
| Morton | 0.293 | 2.93 | 0.314 | 4.13 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.282 | 3.84 | 0.235 | 97.91 | 18.7% |
| Norris | 0.314 | 3.54 | 0.325 | 3.86 | 0.271 | 0.777 | 0.279 | 4.36 | 0.246 | 100.44 | 17.5% |
| Buehrle | 0.332 | 2.58 | 0.319 | 3.30 | 0.255 | 0.725 | 0.301 | 3.82 | 0.271 | 99.73 | 13.7% |
| Lincecum | 0.312 | 3.98 | 0.324 | 4.41 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.285 | 3.97 | 0.238 | 95.17 | 21.5% |
| Nelson | 0.336 | 5.40 | 0.330 | 3.18 | 0.240 | 0.675 | 0.303 | 4.05 | 0.244 | 98.25 | 21.4% |
| Hahn | 0.222 | 2.22 | 0.263 | 1.78 | 0.246 | 0.700 | 0.239 | 2.90 | 0.179 | 92.22 | 25.4% |
| Hughes | 0.269 | 3.03 | 0.357 | 5.29 | 0.226 | 0.633 | 0.347 | 2.68 | 0.285 | 94.59 | 20.7% |
| Lewis | 0.426 | 6.54 | 0.338 | 5.36 | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.382 | 4.29 | 0.327 | 94.79 | 17.7% |
| Danks | 0.325 | 3.86 | 0.353 | 4.70 | 0.273 | 0.741 | 0.290 | 4.85 | 0.264 | 104.73 | 15.7% |
| De La Rosa | 0.365 | 4.35 | 0.300 | 2.70 | 0.250 | 0.680 | 0.285 | 4.39 | 0.258 | 100.44 | 16.4% |
| Lynn | 0.310 | 2.62 | 0.291 | 3.25 | 0.245 | 0.690 | 0.299 | 3.26 | 0.237 | 103.95 | 21.5% |
| Wood | 0.278 | 4.34 | 0.367 | 5.42 | 0.280 | 0.789 | 0.325 | 4.21 | 0.273 | 101.05 | 18.9% |
| Anderson | 0.338 | 5.06 | 0.300 | 2.43 | 0.267 | 0.749 | 0.323 | 3.09 | 0.272 | 90.14 | 15.8% |
| Duffy | 0.175 | 1.21 | 0.296 | 2.76 | 0.264 | 0.715 | 0.232 | 4.00 | 0.201 | 76.50 | 19.0% |
| Miley | 0.350 | 5.14 | 0.313 | 3.90 | 0.259 | 0.683 | 0.298 | 3.97 | 0.250 | 98.78 | 21.5% |
| Smyly | 0.210 | 2.65 | 0.386 | 4.54 | 0.242 | 0.708 | 0.313 | 4.09 | 0.269 | 89.48 | 20.0% |
| Hammel | 0.320 | 3.35 | 0.295 | 4.22 | 0.252 | 0.700 | 0.287 | 3.75 | 0.239 | 97.00 | 22.6% |
| Santiago | 0.268 | 2.74 | 0.302 | 4.18 | 0.230 | 0.673 | 0.276 | 3.91 | 0.230 | 73.63 | 21.3% |
| Kershaw | 0.175 | 0.34 | 0.242 | 2.09 | 0.279 | 0.786 | 0.279 | 1.71 | 0.194 | 98.76 | 33.0% |
| Wood | 0.316 | 2.15 | 0.303 | 3.75 | 0.245 | 0.635 | 0.316 | 3.36 | 0.254 | 65.40 | 23.9% |
| Hernandez | 0.230 | 1.24 | 0.234 | 3.04 | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.264 | 2.08 | 0.193 | 103.09 | 28.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window