Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 26th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 26th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamels | PHI | 134.0 | 4.16 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 52.4% | 21.9% | 6.4% | 1.01 | 1.11 | |
| Fister | DET | 127.0 | 3.90 | 3.35 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 18.2% | 4.3% | 0.71 | 2.34 | |
| Harvey | NYM | 137.0 | 2.23 | 2.62 | 0.89 | 65.0% | 29.9% | 5.3% | 0.46 | 1.30 | |
| Ohlendorf | WAS | 26.2 | 2.02 | 3.64 | 0.94 | 100.0% | 20.4% | 5.8% | 0.67 | 0.71 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 106.2 | 2.95 | 3.23 | 1.16 | 64.7% | 22.7% | 5.2% | 1.18 | 1.65 | |
| Tillman | BAL | 119.2 | 3.84 | 4.28 | 1.34 | 45.0% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 1.58 | 0.97 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 122.2 | 4.62 | 3.81 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 5.8% | 1.17 | 1.04 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | 142.0 | 4.37 | 3.63 | 1.27 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 5.3% | 1.46 | 1.31 | |
| Perez | TEX | 42.1 | 3.40 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 42.9% | 13.6% | 6.0% | 1.06 | 1.87 | |
| Kluber | CLE | 100.0 | 3.69 | 3.13 | 1.23 | 40.0% | 24.4% | 5.8% | 0.99 | 1.64 | |
| Lyles | HOU | 84.2 | 4.78 | 4.14 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 0.64 | 1.95 | |
| Dickey | TOR | 134.2 | 4.75 | 4.42 | 1.30 | 42.9% | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.54 | 1.06 | |
| Locke | PIT | 115.0 | 2.11 | 4.55 | 1.11 | 52.6% | 17.3% | 11.1% | 0.47 | 1.78 | |
| Alvarez | MIA | 24.2 | 3.28 | 4.77 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 0.00 | 1.94 | |
| Wainwright | STL | 154.2 | 2.44 | 2.91 | 1.02 | 61.9% | 22.7% | 2.8% | 0.35 | 1.88 | |
| Minor | ATL | 130.0 | 2.98 | 3.43 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 23.7% | 5.4% | 0.97 | 0.80 | |
| Shields | KCR | 141.2 | 3.24 | 3.74 | 1.23 | 57.1% | 21.0% | 6.9% | 0.89 | 1.30 | |
| Quintana | CWS | 119.2 | 3.61 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 7.2% | 0.98 | 1.21 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 121.1 | 4.30 | 4.41 | 1.43 | 38.1% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 0.82 | 2.18 | |
| Chatwood | COL | 76.1 | 2.48 | 4.10 | 1.34 | 61.5% | 15.1% | 8.5% | 0.35 | 2.67 | |
| Stults | SDP | 133.0 | 3.45 | 4.37 | 1.16 | 48.0% | 14.9% | 5.2% | 0.54 | 1.07 | |
| Delgado | ARI | 44.2 | 3.43 | 3.70 | 1.43 | 43.0% | 18.6% | 4.8% | 1.41 | 1.44 | |
| Williams | LAA | 97.0 | 4.73 | 4.47 | 1.39 | 53.8% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 1.35 | |
| Colon | OAK | 135.2 | 2.52 | 4.18 | 1.08 | 65.0% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 0.60 | 1.20 | |
| Diamond | MIN | 96.0 | 5.53 | 4.94 | 1.55 | 27.8% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 1.50 | 1.42 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | 144.2 | 2.43 | 2.84 | 1.09 | 71.4% | 25.7% | 4.7% | 0.68 | 1.73 | |
| Bailey | CIN | 129.0 | 3.84 | 3.08 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 25.1% | 5.9% | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | 152.1 | 2.01 | 3.16 | 0.88 | 66.7% | 25.3% | 6.0% | 0.53 | 1.28 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 107.1 | 5.03 | 3.79 | 1.41 | 21.1% | 19.4% | 8.0% | 0.75 | 2.05 | |
| Cain | SFG | 117.0 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 21.8% | 8.4% | 1.23 | 1.01 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
We have several studs going today, though a few are facing each other which cuts win probability, but otherwise they are worth the investment. These studs don’t need a lot of explanation. You’re either going to invest the big bucks or not. If they are struggling of late or anything like, I’ll note it, but otherwise more time will be spent on mid-tier guys.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. CIN) – Baseball’s best pitcher. Without question.
Matt Harvey, NYM (at WAS) – The Nats are 2-8 in their last 10 and currently losing game 1 of this doubleheader 3-0 in the fifth inning. The absolute last thing you want to do if you’re the Mets is lose the opener to a youngster making his seventh MLB start (Jenrry Mejia) and then have to face Harvey to save a split. Harvey has gone 7 IP/1 ER in each of his outings against WAS this year.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. SEA) – Ho-hum, Hernandez is on a 16-inning scoreless streak including his last two innings against Boston, plus entire outings against the Angels (8 IP) and Astros (6 IP). I honestly think he doesn’t get as much attention as he deserves because he’s playing for a weak team out west.
Adam Wainwright, STL (at ATL) – Waino is one of those arms facing another stud, though he is still better than Mike Minor and I would favor him when deciding on the pair.
Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. LAA) – I’m just marveling at him at this point. I don’t miss a start and I never cease to be amazed at what he’s doing. He threw a shutout against these Angels his last time out.
James Shields, KC (at CWS) – Shields has been hittable of late, but his stuff looked good in the outing against the Tigers as he scattered nine hits over seven innings allowing three runs. The two homers caused most of the damage and unfortunately it was too much for the KC offense as they lost 4-1, but it was encouraging as a comparison to his other recent starts where he looked a little less ace-like.
John Lackey, BOS (at BAL) – Some are still sleeping on Lackey, but he’s been an ace this year. He and Felix Doubront have teamed up to cover for the injured Clay Buchholz and subpar Jon Lester. Lackey has gone fewer than 7 IP just once in his last seven starts and he still went 6.3 IP. He threw seven strong in Baltimore back on June 15th allowing just two runs on seven hits.
Mike Minor, ATL (v. STL) – The worst his ERA has been at any point this year is 3.15. He’s back down below 3.00 after a complete game (8 IP variety) in Chicago allowing just three runs (two earned), but taking the loss despite the effort.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at NYY) – There haven’t been arms throwing better than Hellickson over the last month. He has a 2.19 ERA over his last six with 34 strikeouts in 37 innings of work. He’s also 5-0. This is his first outing against the Yankees this season.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where you’ll find good arms facing significantly better pitchers or tough matchups, quality arms who just aren’t aces, and the best bargain buys who may be a little short on talent but they have a good matchup and/or have been pitching well of late.
Doug Fister, DET (v. PHI) – He’s looked great in his last two starts after allowing six earned in back-to-back starts to open the month. He’s gone six innings in each of the starts allowing 2 ER and 1 ER, respectively, while posting a 10/3 K/BB ratio. The Phillies give him a chance to stay hot.
Corey Kluber, CLE (v. TEX) – Kluber has racked up plenty of Ks this year with a one-per-inning average including 10, 8, and 7 in his last three outings, too. The Rangers can be tough, but they certainly haven’t been this month with an 8-12 record and just 3.6 runs per game, down from their 4.3 rate from April through June.
Jeff Locke, PIT (at MIA) – It seems impossible for Locke to maintain his 2.11 ERA with the skills he is currently displaying, but it seems unlikely that his reckoning would come in Miami against one of the league’s worst offenses.
Homer Bailey, CIN (at LAD) – If you play at a site that heavily rewards wins or worse yet counts minus points for losses, you can’t really use Bailey against Kershaw. Not to mention the fact that the Dodgers are on fire lately.
R.A Dickey, TOR (v. HOU) – He doesn’t usually discriminate when he gets destroyed as the Twins were last of the seven teams to blast him for six-plus runs, but many a struggling pitcher has made magic happen against the Astros so we can’t discount Dickey, especially since his price is now more on par with someone of his current stature as opposed to a reigning Cy Young winner.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (at SF) – The skills have been saying all year that he deserves much better than a 5.00+ ERA and it’s finally starting to happen. He has a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his last four outings including outings against St. Louis and a trip to Colorado in his last two outings. He’s dirt cheap and facing a Giants team that is scoring 3.2 R/G this month.
Randall Delgado, ARI (v. SD) – He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his eight starts and he gets a Padres team scoring a modest 3.6 R/G which is heavily inflated by a pair of 10-run games including one yesterday.
Jose Quintana, CWS (v. KC) – I’d like him a lot more if he wasn’t opposing James Shields, but he does have a 2.36 ERA in July and he’s been OK against the Royals in a pair of outings in KC. I really only like him as a secondary arm at sites using multiple pitchers.
USE CAUTION:
Wily Peralta, MIL (at COL) – Trust me, I’m nervous here, but Peralta has a 0.87 ERA in his last six outings as he’s allowing a meager 5.5 hits per nine. We haven’t seen much scoring in Colorado during the last two series despite them being against the Cubs and Marlins. I’m still preaching caution.
Cole Hamels, PHI (at DET) – He’s priced too high to mess with in Detroit.
CC Sabathia, NYY (v. TB) – His name value keeps his price far too high when you look at the actual results he is posting. He’s been good vs. tough teams and terrible vs. bad teams so you never know what you are going to get. I don’t want any piece of him against the Rays.
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. BOS) – He’s running a high-wire act that will come crashing down eventually. The 1.6 HR/9 rate and modest component stats is just begging for trouble. Boston may be ready to give him that trouble.
Tyler Chatwood, COL (v. MIL) – His elite groundball rate makes up for a modest strikeout rate, but he still has a 1.69 WHIP and 1.3 K/BB ratio at home which says we need to be cautious even against a Braun-less Brew Crew.
Matt Cain, SF (v. CHC) – Look at these names in this section! Hamels, CC, and Cain… that’s crazy, but I think it’s merited. I realize it’s the Cubs, but I just have zero confidence investing my money in Cain.
Ross Ohlendorf, WAS (v. NYM) – In fairness he has been good this year including a strong start against the Dodgers (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K), but his team can’t buy a win and they’re facing Matt Harvey.
Martin Perez, TEX (at CLE) – His modest skills have come home to roost of late with a 5.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his last three starts. He’s not missing enough bats and he’s allowing far too many hits.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Eric Stults, SD (at ARI) – Home ERA: 2.45, Road ERA: 4.33 … his K/BB drops from 4.2 to 2.1, too. No thanks.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (v. PIT) – Don’t be blinded by the 3.28 ERA, his 1.38 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB tell the real story.
Jordan Lyles, HOU (at TOR) – He’d been pitching well for an extended period of time, but he’s gone in the tank with an 8.31 ERA in his last five.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Scott Diamond, MIN (at SEA)
- Jerome Williams, LAA (at OAK)
ADVANCED METRICS: July 26th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Hamels | 0.319 | 5.06 | 0.327 | 3.76 | 0.264 | 0.762 | 0.304 | 3.63 | 0.252 | 103.14 | 66.6% | ||
| Fister | 0.291 | 4.33 | 0.347 | 3.60 | 0.262 | 0.719 | 0.318 | 3.40 | 0.269 | 103.95 | 64.7% | ||
| Harvey | 0.218 | 1.80 | 0.266 | 3.05 | 0.250 | 0.705 | 0.262 | 2.08 | 0.190 | 104.95 | 66.4% | ||
| Ohlendorf | 0.151 | 1.93 | 0.299 | 1.59 | 0.234 | 0.682 | 0.230 | 3.12 | 0.196 | 51.63 | 64.4% | ||
| Lackey | 0.268 | 2.75 | 0.351 | 2.90 | 0.275 | 0.789 | 0.290 | 3.64 | 0.244 | 97.59 | 65.5% | ||
| Tillman | 0.324 | 3.94 | 0.347 | 4.11 | 0.285 | 0.819 | 0.283 | 4.88 | 0.256 | 104.40 | 62.4% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.334 | 4.71 | 0.295 | 4.64 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.295 | 3.85 | 0.256 | 97.70 | 64.9% | ||
| Sabathia | 0.283 | 3.51 | 0.342 | 4.27 | 0.289 | 0.791 | 0.298 | 4.20 | 0.262 | 104.24 | 66.9% | ||
| Perez | 0.330 | 0.00 | 0.342 | 4.05 | 0.261 | 0.754 | 0.296 | 4.25 | 0.273 | 87.57 | 64.6% | ||
| Kluber | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.321 | 3.76 | 0.264 | 0.752 | 0.321 | 3.30 | 0.256 | 88.50 | 64.0% | ||
| Lyles | 0.308 | 3.76 | 0.361 | 4.32 | 0.251 | 0.742 | 0.314 | 3.84 | 0.273 | 95.40 | 61.6% | ||
| Dickey | 0.344 | 5.31 | 0.308 | 4.18 | 0.229 | 0.651 | 0.263 | 5.01 | 0.245 | 103.57 | 64.3% | ||
| Locke | 0.315 | 3.04 | 0.269 | 1.94 | 0.227 | 0.642 | 0.223 | 3.76 | 0.191 | 93.47 | 58.7% | ||
| Alvarez | 0.450 | 9.53 | 0.319 | 2.25 | 0.243 | 0.702 | 0.318 | 3.01 | 0.281 | 88.50 | 66.1% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.268 | 2.78 | 0.273 | 2.13 | 0.254 | 0.744 | 0.308 | 2.21 | 0.242 | 103.62 | 68.2% | ||
| Minor | 0.245 | 2.35 | 0.312 | 3.31 | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.274 | 3.23 | 0.226 | 99.00 | 66.4% | ||
| Shields | 0.277 | 2.88 | 0.327 | 3.68 | 0.256 | 0.701 | 0.299 | 3.54 | 0.249 | 107.57 | 62.9% | ||
| Quintana | 0.324 | 3.45 | 0.295 | 3.84 | 0.264 | 0.694 | 0.272 | 3.87 | 0.237 | 101.65 | 62.2% | ||
| Peralta | 0.373 | 4.47 | 0.319 | 4.80 | 0.269 | 0.770 | 0.293 | 4.17 | 0.262 | 92.19 | 61.2% | ||
| Chatwood | 0.284 | 1.91 | 0.321 | 3.19 | 0.255 | 0.716 | 0.304 | 3.44 | 0.260 | 91.00 | 60.7% | ||
| Stults | 0.242 | 3.18 | 0.302 | 3.41 | 0.252 | 0.686 | 0.278 | 3.29 | 0.246 | 97.38 | 64.8% | ||
| Delgado | 0.373 | 3.60 | 0.378 | 4.13 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.350 | 4.12 | 0.307 | 89.25 | 66.7% | ||
| Williams | 0.367 | 5.20 | 0.321 | 4.14 | 0.245 | 0.711 | 0.288 | 4.72 | 0.268 | 62.33 | 63.2% | ||
| Colon | 0.316 | 2.74 | 0.248 | 2.70 | 0.275 | 0.773 | 0.280 | 3.16 | 0.252 | 94.55 | 69.5% | ||
| Diamond | 0.424 | 5.40 | 0.362 | 5.35 | 0.232 | 0.675 | 0.319 | 5.20 | 0.312 | 90.61 | 62.0% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.303 | 2.86 | 0.280 | 2.22 | 0.239 | 0.695 | 0.309 | 2.61 | 0.239 | 103.86 | 64.4% | ||
| Bailey | 0.331 | 4.13 | 0.246 | 3.56 | 0.263 | 0.715 | 0.311 | 2.81 | 0.241 | 101.60 | 67.6% | ||
| Kershaw | 0.189 | 1.52 | 0.250 | 2.13 | 0.246 | 0.716 | 0.230 | 2.58 | 0.181 | 106.57 | 65.9% | ||
| Jackson | 0.347 | 5.76 | 0.330 | 4.67 | 0.262 | 0.706 | 0.315 | 3.63 | 0.262 | 93.47 | 60.5% | ||
| Cain | 0.299 | 4.65 | 0.318 | 5.46 | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.258 | 4.15 | 0.222 | 97.10 | 63.4% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 26th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window