Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 28th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-28 19:13:17

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 28th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Matt Harvey, NYM (v. WAS) – It’s still funny to me that his worst start of the season is against Miami in their cavernous stadium. The Nats get their second crack at Harvey, though Stephen Strasburg missed the rematch by a day. Harvey notched his fourth win of the season (in his fourth start) by throwing seven one-run innings against Nats on April 19th allowing seven base runners and striking out seven. Harvey is going to cost you at every venue, but the simple fact is that he’s worth it especially in this matchup against the hapless Nats (24th-ranked OPS v. RHP) and at home where he has a 1.82 ERA and 5.8 K/BB in 64.3 IP.

Max Scherzer, DET (at TB) – He is basically the 1a to Harvey’s 1 for today with the only real difference being that he is facing a tougher opponent. Although some of that difference is offset by his being cheaper at more outlets. They are the top two salaries at every outlet. The Rays pummel lefties to build up their offensive numbers and they essentially league average against righties with a 722 OPS (league average is 721). He opened the month against Tampa Bay and tossed seven strong allowing just one run on four hits and two walks with nine strikeouts. He’s in the midst of a seven-game quality start string during which he has a 2.02 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Scherzer has logged at least six strikeouts in every start this season, at least seven in 11 of 15 outings, and double-digits in five with a season-high of 12 set back on April 17th in Seattle.

James Shields, KC (at MIN) – If I had any confidence that the Royals offense could support Shields to a win, I might’ve actually rated him as the top choice for the day given how tantalizingly low his prices relative to his pure talent. Of course if he were actually logging wins then he probably wouldn’t be such a cheap ace. He’s not only winless in June, but decision-less! He hasn’t won since April 30th going 0-4 in five May starts. In fact, since his last win he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 69 IP across 10 starts.

His ERA is the fifth-best in the AL during that span yet he has nothing show for it when it comes to wins. At the outlets where wins register big points it’s hard to confidently invest, especially on big tourney night when you basically have to get an SP win to contend. Of course if he does pan out and actually get some support then you just got an ace-level score out of someone costing what a #2 or #3 would cost (depending on the site).

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. CHC) – The A’s popped Iwakuma for four runs in each of his last two outings, saddling him with two of his worst starts all season and pushing his ERA allll the way up to 2.26. I see no cause for concern with Iwakuma and if anything it might’ve dropped the price some making him ripe for the picking with a start against the Cubs on the horizon. They have a 704 OPS against righties on the season slotting them 20th, but it’s down to 636 in June which is the fourth-worst in baseball. Despite the two Oakland outings, Iwakuma still has a 2.67 ERA for June.

Shelby Miller, STL (at OAK) – Miller has also allowed four earned in a pair of outings this month yet his June ERA is still a very healthy 3.03 in 29.7 innings, though the A’s are raking in June (768 OPS, 7th in MLB) so it’s not the ideal setup for him. Miller has been good enough that opponent is hardly a major concern, but on a night with tons of option it can be a tiebreaker.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (at TEX) – Cueto had been brilliant through his first seven outings before the D’Backs tattooed him for seven runs on 11 hits in 4.3 innings his last time out. He’s catching the Rangers at the perfect time as their offense has faltered in June registering just 3.5 runs per game after reaching 5.0 in May en route to a 17-11 record. Their 682 OPS against righties is below league average (711) and sits 18th in the league. It’s even worse at home, dipping to 657 (23rd). Plus Cueto’s 51% groundball rate helps mitigate the homer-happy environments like Texas.

BEST THE REST:

Travis Wood, CHC (at SEA) – Wood has always been a capable starter, but he hasn’t been a beastly one since his rookie year when he ripped of a nine-game stretch of 2.51 ERA to start his MLB career. Without a marked skills improvement (K & BB rates are right in line with career marks), Wood has put together a 15-start stretch of 2.85 ERA thanks to a cutter that has gone from OK to nearly unhittable. He’s throwing the pitch 3% more often, but the results against it have improved across the board going from .251/.304/.426 last year to .178/.250/.295 this year spurring his drop in batting average against from .232 to .198 – sixth-best in baseball. The Mariners are the fifth-worst team in baseball against righties at 667 and even worse in June, checking in 564 which is good for dead last.

Julio Teheran, ATL (v. ARI) – Another big outing and Teheran will put the finishing touches on his best month ever. He’ll have to be sharp to maintain or improve his 2.39 ERA for June, but he has a little wiggle room to best May’s 2.60 ERA. Either way, Teheran is growing up before our eyes. He walked three batters in his second and third starts and now he’s walked three in 26.3 June innings thus far.

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (v. SD) – Nolasco dominated the Padres in early May at their place holding them to just one run in seven innings on four hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. Now he gets them at home where he actually has a slightly worse ERA (4.06 compared to 3.28 on the road) despite a better WHIP (1.18, 1.22) and virtually equal skills (6.9 K/9 home and road; 3.0 & 3.17 K/BB). The big risk with Nolasco is a lack of support from the offense or bullpen. Exhibit A would be the fact that he lost that first outing against the Padres back in May as he was outdueled by Jason Marquis in a 1-0 battle. The Marlins bats have shown some life in June crawling out of the basement to slot 20th against righties which is actually two spots ahead of San Diego.

USE CAUTION:

Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. MIL) – The prized rookie has been excellent in his first three starts as a major leaguer winning all three and standing up to his biggest challenge yet last time out as he gave up just a pair in 6.3 innings in LA against the Angels with a season-high five strikeouts. He has plenty of strikeout stuff, but even in the minors that wasn’t yet a huge part of his game. They will likely increase as he gains more and more experience. Carlos Gomez is slated to return from a shoulder sprain tonight, but the Brewers are still far from full strength with Ryan Braun on the shelf. Of course even with Gomez missing some time and Braun playing just eight games this month, they are still the eighth-best offense against righties in June with the fifth-highest slugging percentage. It’s not a great setup for Cole, but the price is right for a high-upside risk at most outlets.

Josh Johnson, TOR (at BOS) – Johnson is actually in the midst of a really nice June posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 25.3 innings so far, but I just don’t trust many pitchers against this Boston offense. They are tops on the season in OPS against righties (833) and even better in June maintaining their top spot (860).

Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. STL) – Colon has been excellent this year, though his only two bad outings this year have come against strong offenses so I don’t like him here against the Cards. The Orioles and Indians ripped him for five and six earned runs, respectively, and the Cardinals have one of baseball’s best offenses (including the NL’s best in June against righties) so this just isn’t a great spot with so many other options. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he went out and shut them down, but his brilliant results through 15 starts have elevated his price and removed a lot of the upside associated with him. Now he basically has to dominate to be worth the investment and with a 15% K rate there is extra burden on him to go deep into the game without giving up many runs.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. SF) – The Giants pummeled Chacin back in mid-May, getting him for eight runs in 5.3 innings, but their offense was much different then as they were in the midst of a 4.7 runs per game month compared to their paltry 3.5 per game in June that led to a 9-15 record thus far. Chacin has been on either extreme for the most part this year allowing two or fewer or five-plus in all but one of his 14 starts. Thankfully he is in the midst of a three-start stretch of the former posting a 1.74 ERA in 20.7 innings with wins in all three outings.

Jerome Williams, LAA (at HOU) – While better as reliever (who isn’t?), Williams has held own when a part of the rotation posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in eight starts spanning 50 innings of work. He hasn’t missed many bats this season with a 15.6% strikeout rate, but he had six against the Astros during a June 1st start which matched his season-high. The Astros are actually scoring their fewest runs per game in June at 3.5, but their holding opponents to far fewer hence their 12-12 record which is easily their best in any month.

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (v. LAA) – Editor’s Note: Keuchel was slated to start late last night but was swapped for Bud Norris today

David Phelps, NYY (at BAL) – I don’t love Phelps against the O’s because they have a great offense and Phelps decidedly doesn’t have much of one supporting him to make us feel confident in a win if he is able to hold the O’s down. Phelps has been very good as a starter with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts including some strong competition. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start, though one of those was just a third of an inning against the Mets. This is a tough spot to trust him, but I could see utilizing him as a secondary starter at sites that require more than one in your lineup.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. CLE) – As good as Cleveland has been this year, Quintana has allowed just two runs against them in two outings totaling 12 innings with a 10/2 K/BB rate. In the first one, he threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball walking nobody and fanning seven. Meanwhile, they are fourth in the league against lefties on the season at 755 OPS, but just 612 in June which ranks 26th.
Ross Detwiler, WAS (v. NYM) – Detwiler hasn’t been good in his last two outings allowing 11 runs in 9.7 innings, but this is a very favorable matchup as the Mets are still 25th in the league against lefties despite a June surge during which they’ve posted the 12th-best OPS at 733. That said, his 12% K rate is just horrible and it’s really hard to invest in a guy who has a season-high of five strikeouts.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Martin Perez
• Randall Delgado
• Barry Zito
• Chris Capuano
• Kevin Gausman – Update: T.J. McFarland is starting instead of Gausman
• Allen Webster
• Alex Colome
• Edinson Volquez
• John Lannan
• Carlos Carrasco
• Johnny Hellweg
• P.J. Walters

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PARK FACTORS: June 28th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 28th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.