Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 17th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | OAK | BAL | 380.2 | 2.65 | 3.52 | 1.09 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 7.5% | 0.57 | 1.96 |
| Tillman | BAL | OAK | 323.1 | 3.81 | 4.36 | 1.28 | 42.9% | 17.0% | 7.9% | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| Gibson | MIN | NYY | 321 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 15.5% | 7.5% | 0.76 | 2.06 |
| Mitchell | NYY | MIN | 30.1 | 3.26 | 3.11 | 1.29 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 0.59 | 2.71 | |
| Hellickson | ARI | PIT | 187.1 | 4.66 | 4.02 | 1.38 | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 1.09 | |
| Cole | PIT | ARI | 286.2 | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 6.3% | 0.60 | 1.69 |
| Salazar | CLE | BOS | 242.2 | 3.71 | 3.20 | 1.22 | 12.5% | 26.8% | 7.4% | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Barnes | BOS | CLE | 31.1 | 5.17 | 3.66 | 1.76 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 2.01 | 0.72 | |
| Walker | SEA | TEX | 173 | 4.16 | 3.62 | 1.23 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 1.20 | 1.08 | |
| Hamels | TEX | SEA | 347 | 3.03 | 3.28 | 1.17 | 58.8% | 24.5% | 7.1% | 0.80 | 1.51 |
| Ramirez | TBR | HOU | 185.2 | 4.27 | 4.17 | 1.27 | 27.3% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Kazmir | HOU | TBR | 326 | 2.95 | 3.71 | 1.13 | 63.2% | 21.2% | 7.0% | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| Nicolino | MIA | MIL | 16.2 | 4.86 | 5.53 | 1.38 | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.54 | 1.37 | |
| Garza | MIL | MIA | 294 | 4.16 | 4.23 | 1.30 | 35.0% | 17.4% | 7.7% | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| Heston | SFG | STL | 146.1 | 3.44 | 3.82 | 1.21 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 0.49 | 2.29 | |
| Wacha | STL | SFG | 245.1 | 3.04 | 3.70 | 1.15 | 53.3% | 21.0% | 6.7% | 0.62 | 1.29 |
| Rodon | CHW | LAA | 91.2 | 4.61 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 24.4% | 12.3% | 0.69 | 1.72 | |
| Heaney | LAA | CHW | 86.1 | 3.65 | 3.98 | 1.14 | 25.0% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Perez | ATL | SDP | 68.1 | 4.21 | 4.91 | 1.48 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 0.79 | 1.66 | |
| Rea | SDP | ATL |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Sonny Gray OAK (at BAL) – On a day full of Raise-quality arms, Gray stands out in the crowd due to his consistent ability to shut down even the toughest opponents. Over his last four turns, Gray has put together a 1.13 ERA while pitching 7.0 or more innings in each contest, besting the top-tier offenses of the Blue Jays and the Dodgers before laying waste to the Astros and the Indians. His numbers are solid yet unspectacular, as Gray brings value to the table in the form of run prevention rather than strikeouts, narrowing his buffer of performance in order to register a high fantasy score in tonight’s game. The O’s ripped into the A’s for 18 runs yesterday afternoon, and whether that had more to do with the bats and the arms, it’s safe to say that Gray will minimize the damage.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. ARI) – Expect Cole to be swatting at baserunners if the D’Backs can find their way on base, as the Pirate has given up 19 successful steals this season (tied for fourth-most in baseball) and Arizona has swiped the second-most bags in the game with 102 stolen bases. They have also scored the most runs in the National League this season, threatening Cole’s consistent game log, and the Diamondbacks have been plugging along for the past seven days to the tune of a .410 wOBA and 970 OPS. In a vacuum Cole is a Raise-worthy arm that borders on All-in, but today’s opponent poses considerable risk.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. SF) – The Giants have dealt with injuries all season long, so the present-day absences of Joe Panik, Nori Aoki, and Angel Pagan should be par for the course. Hunter Pence has hit well since his return and Buster Posey has held the foundation firm as the one player that the Gigantes can least afford to lose. The team lacks individual starts but has the depth to dent any pitcher’s ERA, but they could be in for a rude awakening when they see the development of Wacha’s repertoire, which has added a pair of breaking pitches since the last time that he faced San Francisco (0.1 innings in the 2014 postseason, one start in May of ’14).
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. SEA) – Hamels has been an unpredictable mess over the past month, a time period which saw him get traded for the first time in his career and after a decade pitching in maroon pinstripes. He has given up at least four runs in four of his last five starts, and the one exception was a 13-strikeout no-hitter that Hamels tossed in the middle of that mess of games. He has the platoon advantage over Mariners infielders Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, but the bat that he has to stay away from is that belonging to Nelson Cruz, who not only rips southpaws but who is electric once his lumber catches fire: the streaky Cruz has an incredible 10 homers in his past 14 games.
Danny Salazar CLE (at BOS) – The one team hotter than Arizona right now? That would be the Red Sox, who scored an off-the-charts 45 runs in a three-game set against the Mariners over the weekend. Boston has totaled 75 runs over their last eight contests (9.4 runs per game) and now sharpen their sticks for the Cleveland rotation, looking to wear out the Green Monster. Salazar has been hot himself lately, tossing six consecutive quality starts while totaling 43 strikeouts and a 1.48 ERA in 42.7 innings over that stretch. Boston’s seven-day wOBA is a crazy .462, during which the team has an OPS of 1.106.
Scott Kazmir HOU (vs. TB) – The Rays smoke southpaws but Kazmir has a reverse split of his own for the past two seasons, including an opponents OPS that’s 100 points higher when facing same-side hitters in 2015. Kazmir’s reversal of fortune will likely help to calm the disturbances caused by Tampa bats tonight, and Kazmir’s recent string of run prevention – a 0.79 ERA over his last seven starts – creates another barrier for the Rays’ bats to overcome. The only knock against Kazmir is strikeouts, as he has totaled six or fewer K’s in all but one outing since April, and that was a seven-strikeout performance on July 2nd.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | 0.264 | 2.35 | 0.263 | 3.01 | 0.249 | 0.730 | 0.263 | 3.23 | 0.216 | 100.36 | 20.9% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 2.97 | 0.321 | 4.79 | 0.253 | 0.697 | 0.278 | 4.08 | 0.245 | 97.40 | 17.0% |
| Gibson | 0.306 | 3.83 | 0.311 | 4.49 | 0.254 | 0.745 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.256 | 94.96 | 15.5% |
| Mitchell | 0.287 | 2.92 | 0.341 | 3.50 | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.322 | 3.38 | 0.259 | 42.00 | 21.1% |
| Hellickson | 0.313 | 4.43 | 0.357 | 4.87 | 0.260 | 0.718 | 0.307 | 4.27 | 0.267 | 93.20 | 19.1% |
| Cole | 0.295 | 2.31 | 0.293 | 3.71 | 0.267 | 0.740 | 0.312 | 2.94 | 0.241 | 100.44 | 24.5% |
| Salazar | 0.299 | 3.52 | 0.310 | 3.86 | 0.256 | 0.708 | 0.303 | 3.53 | 0.237 | 98.49 | 26.8% |
| Barnes | 0.373 | 4.05 | 0.433 | 6.00 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.380 | 5.16 | 0.328 | 21.81 | 20.3% |
| Walker | 0.307 | 3.71 | 0.311 | 4.76 | 0.261 | 0.740 | 0.288 | 4.01 | 0.24 | 88.00 | 22.9% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 1.95 | 0.291 | 3.33 | 0.255 | 0.696 | 0.296 | 3.27 | 0.234 | 104.67 | 24.5% |
| Ramirez | 0.296 | 3.71 | 0.335 | 5.01 | 0.244 | 0.739 | 0.276 | 4.37 | 0.242 | 69.38 | 18.5% |
| Kazmir | 0.300 | 3.13 | 0.272 | 2.90 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 0.271 | 3.35 | 0.224 | 94.33 | 21.2% |
| Nicolino | 0.369 | 1.93 | 0.345 | 6.00 | 0.218 | 0.642 | 0.310 | 4.31 | 0.302 | 81.00 | 5.9% |
| Garza | 0.319 | 3.79 | 0.305 | 4.47 | 0.245 | 0.655 | 0.281 | 4.10 | 0.248 | 93.61 | 17.4% |
| Heston | 0.331 | 4.48 | 0.263 | 2.59 | 0.262 | 0.725 | 0.291 | 3.48 | 0.242 | 86.04 | 18.4% |
| Wacha | 0.266 | 2.99 | 0.294 | 3.09 | 0.272 | 0.750 | 0.279 | 3.21 | 0.229 | 94.32 | 21.0% |
| Rodon | 0.256 | 4.23 | 0.376 | 4.78 | 0.235 | 0.672 | 0.356 | 3.73 | 0.268 | 90.58 | 24.4% |
| Heaney | 0.241 | 1.86 | 0.336 | 4.55 | 0.238 | 0.632 | 0.274 | 4.15 | 0.248 | 81.88 | 17.1% |
| Perez | 0.369 | 5.91 | 0.288 | 2.72 | 0.242 | 0.676 | 0.297 | 4.76 | 0.263 | 77.21 | 14.7% |
| Rea | 0.341 | 6.00 | 0.391 | 4.50 | 0.259 | 0.688 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Taijuan Walker SEA (at TEX) – There’s no telling which version of Walker will show up against the Rangers, but his tendency to gravitate towards streaks leaves open the possibility of a solid outing, including a narrow chance of dominance. This is a pitcher that walked one batter over a combined seven starts at one point this season, during which he had a five-game stretch of hitting at least one batter per game. On the flipside, he has walked four or more batters in four different games this season, though none since May. In his last three starts, Walker has survived Denver, pitched well against Baltimore, and absolutely decimated the Twins with 11 strikeouts in a complete game victory; and each turn required exactly 101 pitches.
Chris Heston SF (at STL) – Heston has been very effective for the Giants this season, even if we cast aside the no-hitter. Over his last seven starts the right-hander has a 2.49 ERA and just two homers allowed, though with just 26 strikeouts in 43.3 innings he could have been surviving via the vagaries of batted balls. The Cardinals have a solid offense that gets a boost when facing right-handers, and the team’s low K rate will act to limit Heston’s fantasy ceiling tonight.
Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. CHW) – Heaney has given up two or fewer runs in all but one of his nine starts this season, but his relatively brief outings have limited the ceiling of his performance over his last few turns. Heaney pitched at least 6.0 frames in each of his first half-dozen starts but has yet to finish the sixth inning in any of his three August turns, and though the 1.035 WHIP and 4.0-percent walk rate are certainly enticing, the limitations of his utility are evident in the modest K rate of 17.7 percent this season. He draws a weak opponent this evening, leaving open the possibility that he earns what has become a generous salary on many DFS sites.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at LAA) – Rodon is the ideal player for a GPP tournament, particularly in a format that allows for two pitchers. His low price tag combined with an ultra-high ceiling provides the opportunity for a DFS manager to stack his lineup while still racking up the points on the pitching side of the ledger. Buyer beware, however, as there is an increased risk of self-implosion with Rodon, who has 101 strikeouts yet 51 walks in his 91.7 innings this season. He has given up seven or more runs in three of his last ten starts, four or more runs in two more, but the allure of double-digit strikeouts is too strong to pass up in a tournament that has a low investment but a big payout.
Erasmo Ramirez TB (at HOU)
Williams Perez ATL (at SD)
Bryan Mitchell NYY (vs. MIN)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at NYY)
Matt Garza MIL (vs. MIA)
Matt Barnes BOS (vs. CLE)
Colin Rea SD (vs. ATL)
Justin Nicolino MIA (at MIL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chris Tillman BAL (vs. OAK)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at PIT)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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