Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 19th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | STL | CHC | 274.1 | 3.05 | 3.86 | 1.17 | 53.3% | 20.6% | 7.0% | 0.69 | 1.26 |
| Wood | CHC | STL | 265.2 | 4.71 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 30.0% | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.05 | 0.81 |
| Pineda | NYY | NYM | 216 | 3.42 | 3.20 | 1.08 | 75.0% | 22.5% | 3.1% | 0.96 | 1.36 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | NYY | 129.1 | 3.20 | 3.17 | 1.10 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 1.04 | 1.36 | |
| Nicolino | MIA | WAS | 54.1 | 3.81 | 5.48 | 1.33 | 8.0% | 6.7% | 0.99 | 1.29 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 384.1 | 3.07 | 3.47 | 1.13 | 52.6% | 21.3% | 4.1% | 0.80 | 1.14 |
| Corbin | ARI | SFG | 68.1 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 1.23 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 1.19 | 1.63 | |
| Leake | SFG | ARI | 388.1 | 3.71 | 3.74 | 1.21 | 45.0% | 17.4% | 5.8% | 1.00 | 2.02 |
| Miley | BOS | TOR | 377 | 4.37 | 3.90 | 1.37 | 33.3% | 19.6% | 8.0% | 0.88 | 1.71 |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 412 | 3.89 | 4.41 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Chen | BAL | TBR | 358.1 | 3.49 | 3.93 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 18.3% | 4.8% | 1.28 | 1.04 |
| Ramirez | TBR | BAL | 219.1 | 4.27 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 27.3% | 18.7% | 7.9% | 1.15 | 1.19 |
| Volquez | KCR | DET | 373 | 3.31 | 4.31 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 17.4% | 8.5% | 0.75 | 1.47 |
| Boyd | DET | KCR | 42.2 | 8.02 | 4.85 | 1.73 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 2.53 | 0.65 | |
| Gray | OAK | HOU | 415.2 | 2.84 | 3.65 | 1.12 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 7.6% | 0.67 | 1.94 |
| Kazmir | HOU | OAK | 361.2 | 3.11 | 3.78 | 1.14 | 63.2% | 21.2% | 7.0% | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| Rodon | CHW | CLE | 125.2 | 3.94 | 4.10 | 1.46 | 23.9% | 11.8% | 0.79 | 1.68 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | CHW | 300.2 | 3.14 | 2.74 | 1.04 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 0.72 | 1.77 | |
| Smith | CIN | MIL | 14.2 | 7.36 | 6.25 | 1.98 | 15.1% | 17.8% | 1.84 | 0.83 | |
| Jungmann | MIL | CIN | 106.1 | 3.05 | 3.99 | 1.19 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 0.51 | 1.40 | |
| Eickhoff | PHI | ATL | 30 | 3.90 | 4.34 | 1.17 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 1.20 | 0.71 | |
| Weber | ATL | PHI | 12.1 | 4.38 | 4.60 | 0.97 | 8.7% | 6.5% | 0.73 | 2.75 | |
| Heaney | LAA | MIN | 118.2 | 3.94 | 4.16 | 1.22 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 5.2% | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Gibson | MIN | LAA | 359 | 4.09 | 4.19 | 1.29 | 52.6% | 15.4% | 7.6% | 0.70 | 2.01 |
| Nuno | SEA | TEX | 232 | 4.07 | 3.84 | 1.22 | 18.8% | 20.0% | 6.5% | 1.44 | 0.91 |
| Hamels | TEX | SEA | 389 | 3.08 | 3.40 | 1.18 | 58.8% | 24.0% | 7.1% | 0.74 | 1.50 |
| Erlin | SDP | COL | 61.1 | 4.99 | 3.91 | 1.40 | 37.5% | 17.4% | 5.7% | 0.88 | 1.29 |
| Flande | COL | SDP | 122.2 | 5.06 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 14.7% | 7.6% | 1.39 | 2.49 | |
| Liriano | PIT | LAD | 329.1 | 3.42 | 3.54 | 1.26 | 12.5% | 25.8% | 10.5% | 0.74 | 1.94 |
| Kershaw | LAD | PIT | 406.1 | 1.95 | 2.19 | 0.87 | 66.7% | 32.5% | 4.5% | 0.51 | 1.81 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. PIT) – One run. That’s all his opponents get: one run. Kersh has given up a single earned run in each of his last six starts, going a minimum of 7.0 innings in each turn. In fact, he has only given up more than one earned run once in his last 14 starts, that being a four-run ousting at the hands of these very Pirates back on August 7. He had also struck out eight or more batters in five straight games going into his last start, but a mere five-K outing broke that particular streak, which had been punctuated by 29 strikeouts over 17.0 innings in consecutive starts against the Cubs and Giants that book-ended the monthly flip of the calendar. He still has an outside shot at 300 K’s or a sub-2.00 ERA, the latter of which would be his third consecutive season under that level while he has never accomplished the former, with this year’s count of 264 K already marking a career-high and Kershaw still having a few starts to go.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. SEA) – Hamels has endured a bit of a rough patch lately, at least in the sense of run prevention, as the southpaw has allowed three or more runs to score in each of his last three outsings. He has pitched at least 7.0 innings each time and hasn’t given up more than four tallies in any one of those ballgames, and there were high-fives in the clubhouse after each game as the Rangers went 3-0 in those contests, helping them to seize first place in the AL West away from the Astros. His overall line for the Rangers is a bit behind his usual pace, both in terms of strikeouts – his 20.6-percent K rate with Texas would qualify as the second-lowest mark of his career if stretched over a full season – as well as run prevention, with a 4.04 ERA as a Ranger that is higher than all but one full season in the bigs (2009, the same year as the low K rate). His full season marks of 24.1-percent strikeouts and a 3.76 ERA are a bit more in line with career norms, and he will look to keep the Rangers on top of the West against a Mariners ballclub whose offense has been on fire in the second half of the season.
Sonny Gray OAK (at HOU) – Gray is not big on the K’s and he has made a habit out of beating his FIP with a low ERA, but he was playing a bit over his head for the first half of the season and now it’s starting to catch up to him. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, a seven-run disaster that saw him ousted after just 3.0 innings against the White Sox. He has given up four or more runs in four of his last six ballgames, and though many of those runs were unearned, he has been lit in two of his last three turns, sandwiched around a strong outing of seven shutout frames against these Astros. Perhaps he channels the same magic when facing Houston again tonight, but the recent track record paints a gloomy picture, and he lacks the K counts to buffer the runs that cross the plate; he hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a ballgame since August 2nd.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. CHW) – Carrasco proved his bat-missing mettle by striking out nine Royals in 6.0 frames of his last outing. Clearly undaunted by the fact that the Royals have been the toughest team in the majors to strike out for two years running, Carrasco allowed just seven baserunners against KC and the lone run came on a solo homer by Alex Gordon. It was a great rebound from Carrasco’s previous start, in which he was knocked out of the game in the third inning after giving up four runs, seven baserunners, and a pair of homers to these Chicago White Sox. The Pale Hose have struggled with their offense for most of the season, but they seem to have Carrasco’s number, having scored 10 runs off the right-hander in their last two meetings and knocking him out after two batters the first time that they faced him, thanks to a scary comebacker that left Carrasco crumpled on the ground. He will try to reverse the curse tonight, but the White Sox recent surge has them hitting for a .336 wOBA and 770 OPS over the last seven days, fanning the flames of pessimism regarding Carrasco’s fantasy point total.
Scott Kazmir HOU (vs. OAK) – Kazmir was on a lights-out streak when the A’s traded him to Houston, and though he has since regressed to merely solid performance (a 3.05 ERA with Houston), September has been a rough month, with a 4.15 ERA in September and just a dozen strikeouts through 17.3 innings. He gave up four runs over six frames the last time that he faced his former teammates, as Oakland took down Kazmir and the ‘Stros on September 8, and Houston has lost seven of his last eight starts, including four in a row. The team needs him to turn things around ASAP, lest they lose grasp on the 2015 postseason.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | 0.264 | 3.01 | 0.301 | 3.09 | 0.246 | 0.730 | 0.276 | 3.41 | 0.229 | 94.59 | 20.6% |
| Wood | 0.280 | 3.81 | 0.352 | 5.08 | 0.229 | 0.655 | 0.318 | 4.08 | 0.261 | 59.54 | 21.9% |
| Pineda | 0.283 | 2.93 | 0.301 | 3.89 | 0.247 | 0.712 | 0.296 | 3.13 | 0.246 | 92.75 | 22.5% |
| Syndergaard | 0.286 | 3.25 | 0.277 | 3.16 | 0.248 | 0.738 | 0.285 | 3.28 | 0.228 | 99.38 | 26.2% |
| Nicolino | 0.328 | 3.65 | 0.347 | 3.86 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.279 | 4.86 | 0.275 | 89.11 | 8.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.316 | 3.49 | 0.264 | 2.66 | 0.253 | 0.673 | 0.303 | 3.16 | 0.251 | 93.08 | 21.3% |
| Corbin | 0.244 | 2.04 | 0.349 | 3.73 | 0.272 | 0.717 | 0.318 | 3.62 | 0.264 | 77.46 | 22.9% |
| Leake | 0.336 | 4.06 | 0.285 | 3.40 | 0.265 | 0.735 | 0.282 | 3.98 | 0.25 | 95.45 | 17.4% |
| Miley | 0.305 | 4.68 | 0.329 | 4.28 | 0.280 | 0.822 | 0.312 | 3.82 | 0.263 | 98.16 | 19.6% |
| Dickey | 0.303 | 3.40 | 0.323 | 4.32 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.263 | 4.46 | 0.238 | 102.30 | 16.8% |
| Chen | 0.278 | 2.21 | 0.340 | 3.92 | 0.259 | 0.750 | 0.293 | 4.13 | 0.262 | 96.14 | 18.3% |
| Ramirez | 0.286 | 3.55 | 0.351 | 5.24 | 0.254 | 0.748 | 0.276 | 4.43 | 0.243 | 71.50 | 18.7% |
| Volquez | 0.309 | 3.23 | 0.297 | 3.38 | 0.269 | 0.737 | 0.275 | 4.01 | 0.237 | 95.29 | 17.4% |
| Boyd | 0.506 | 12.27 | 0.396 | 6.54 | 0.272 | 0.720 | 0.356 | 6.41 | 0.337 | 0.00 | 16.1% |
| Gray | 0.273 | 2.34 | 0.267 | 3.39 | 0.243 | 0.727 | 0.264 | 3.44 | 0.22 | 99.77 | 20.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.26 | 0.277 | 3.07 | 0.250 | 0.697 | 0.275 | 3.46 | 0.228 | 94.82 | 21.2% |
| Rodon | 0.218 | 3.16 | 0.362 | 4.26 | 0.265 | 0.728 | 0.320 | 3.87 | 0.248 | 93.63 | 23.9% |
| Carrasco | 0.257 | 3.01 | 0.278 | 3.27 | 0.256 | 0.710 | 0.291 | 2.74 | 0.221 | 66.49 | 27.4% |
| Smith | 0.504 | 10.80 | 0.352 | 5.59 | 0.259 | 0.716 | 0.310 | 7.78 | 0.286 | 62.00 | 15.1% |
| Jungmann | 0.296 | 2.54 | 0.280 | 3.49 | 0.250 | 0.710 | 0.283 | 3.37 | 0.224 | 97.94 | 21.9% |
| Eickhoff | 0.419 | 7.71 | 0.195 | 1.47 | 0.255 | 0.678 | 0.256 | 4.18 | 0.228 | 87.80 | 19.5% |
| Weber | 0.347 | 5.87 | 0.222 | 1.93 | 0.247 | 0.681 | 0.222 | 4.77 | 0.22 | 82.00 | 8.7% |
| Heaney | 0.262 | 2.60 | 0.335 | 4.50 | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.289 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 84.27 | 17.3% |
| Gibson | 0.305 | 3.88 | 0.301 | 4.30 | 0.247 | 0.705 | 0.284 | 3.88 | 0.251 | 95.92 | 15.4% |
| Nuno | 0.262 | 2.61 | 0.341 | 4.57 | 0.246 | 0.714 | 0.277 | 4.48 | 0.247 | 59.84 | 20.0% |
| Hamels | 0.292 | 2.15 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.266 | 0.738 | 0.297 | 3.24 | 0.235 | 104.57 | 24.0% |
| Erlin | 0.327 | 6.11 | 0.348 | 4.53 | 0.241 | 0.646 | 0.332 | 3.69 | 0.286 | 77.46 | 17.4% |
| Flande | 0.283 | 5.20 | 0.364 | 5.00 | 0.243 | 0.678 | 0.274 | 4.94 | 0.259 | 57.24 | 14.7% |
| Liriano | 0.301 | 3.90 | 0.285 | 3.30 | 0.263 | 0.753 | 0.286 | 3.45 | 0.219 | 94.56 | 25.8% |
| Kershaw | 0.237 | 1.98 | 0.233 | 1.94 | 0.255 | 0.701 | 0.278 | 1.96 | 0.194 | 103.04 | 32.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Garrett Richards LAA (at MIN) – Richards leads the majors in wild pitches for the second consecutive season, an impressive feat for a guy who only started 26 games last year, but I guess the silver lining is that he has trimmed the wild ones from 22 to 15 over two additional starts in 2015. Richards occasionally spikes a high K count, with four games this season of nine or more punchouts this year (three of which have been in the second half), but more often the strikeouts are surprisingly limited for a guy who can reach the upper 90’s with his fastball. He has struck out six or fewer batters in five of his last seven starts and has given up multiple runs in 11 consecutive turns, 10 of which featured three or more runs allowed.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at CLE) – Strikeouts haven’t been a problem for Rodon when looking at the season-long picture, with better than a K per inning this season, but his walk rate of 11.8 percent gets him into trouble. Both the walks and the strikeouts have been tamed recently, but it’s all relative, as he has still punched out 48 batters and walked 21 others in his last 48.7 innings. The K counts have been jumping between problematic and effective, with five or fewer strikeouts in five of his last eight turns but more than eight strikeouts in each of the other three outings. The White Sox will take it, given that Rodon hasn’t coughed up more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at LAD) – Liriano has been a mess in the second half of the season, and in his last eight starts he has a 5.04 ERA with 23 walks in 40.7 innings. Batters have an 808 OPS against Liriano over that stretch despite hitting just four homers, and he has struck out five or fewer batters in eight of his last nine starts, cutting his K buffer. The Dodgers have hit lefties better than righties this season, despite leaning on southpaw-vulnerable hitters such as Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson, with a .328 wOBA and 753 OPS against left-handers this season.
Taylor Jungmann MIL (vs. CIN) – Jungmann was a revelation for the Brewers in the first two months of summer, but he has fallen off the wagon in recent starts, with a 5.61 ERA over his last five turns, alternating clean outings with games that are light on the strikeouts but heavy on the runs allowed. He;s only bested a half-dozen K’s once over his last five outings. One of the good ones was against the Reds, with six shutout innings against Cincy back on August 28, but he will have to reverse the poor showing of his last two starts (10 earned runs over 9.3 innings) in order to stage an encore performance.
Edinson Volquez KC (at DET)
Vidal Nuno SEA (at TEX)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. LAA)
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at ATL)
Ryan Weber ATL (vs. PHI)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Josh Smith CIN (at MIL)
Matt Boyd DET (vs. KC)
Robbie Erlin SD (at COL)
Yohan Flande COL (vs. SD) – The Pads facing a weak lefty at Coors presents a golden opportunity for some Friar stacking.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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