Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 93.5
— World Series Odds: 7/1
— Key Additions: A.J. Pollock, Russell Martin
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Ross Stripling, David Freese, Enrique Hernandez, Russell Martin, Alex Verdugo
— Outlook: Despite no longer having the services of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier on this roster, the addition of A.J. Pollock and return of Corey Seager should have this team right back where they want to be in 2019. Green conditional formats awash the 2018 average PlateIQ ratings shown above, with essentially every hitter in the lineup possessing high contact quality scores and production ratings. The Dodgers led the National League in three key categories last year that we should expect to remain relatively constant this season: wRC+ (111), Run Differential (+193), and WAR (33). We absolutely did not see the best Cody Bellinger or Corey Seager (when healthy) had to offer last season, and it’s scary to think a team that just lost Machado and Dozier actually has some upside from their 2018 World Series squad.
The Dodgers pitching staff remains in great shape, but there are some question marks. Clayton Kershaw returned from the cloud in which he resided all by himself for years to join the ranks of mortals last season. Still, the worst version of Kershaw we have ever seen was 25th in WAR, sporting a 3.45 SIERA, and generating over 20% soft contact. He dealt with injuries that slowed him down for sure, though he is already dealing with shoulder soreness this year. It’s an ominous sign for the former untouchable ace, and hopefully the DFS sites build in the risk to his price tag early on.
Every other light for this pitching staff is bright green, as is their PlateIQ conditional formatting above. All five listed starters have the strikeout potential we love, but they are also have a team that may not need to overload them with long inning appearances. Not pictured above is Ross Stripling, who had an incredible 2018 season as a starter (27% K / 4.4% BB / 3.13 SIERA). The plan for him right now is work from the pen, but Kershaw’s situation could land him a spot in the rotation if things take a turn for the worse. Sadly, it’s not clear how much to downgrade this team if Kershaw isn’t available right away. That speaks highly to the depth and quality of this roster.
— DFS Ownership Trends: The Dodgers were somehow just the eighth-most popular team in 2018, and if that trend continues there could be plenty of value here. Myriad factors play into the popularity of a team, especially price. Still, there are many scenarios in which the Dodgers can out perform the expectation of eighth-most explosive team. One player who was often the odd man out was Max Muncy. He finished as just 181st-most-popular player to roster. On a team with this kind of upside, there will surely be situations where he provides leverage presuming that trend continues.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Only one player in MLB (min. 400 PA) has slashed at least .300/.400/.500 with a sub-13.0% strikeout rate in each of the past two seasons: Justin Turner. In fact, only five other players have achieved that in multiple seasons since 2000: Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, Joe Mauer, and Gary Sheffield. Don’t be fooled: Turner is one of the best hitters in MLB, and he’s an evergreen high-floor option suitable for cash games.
— Last year, Walker Buehler posted an incredible 148 ERA+, making him one of just six pitchers (min. 137 IP) in the last 10 years to reach that ERA+ mark in his first or second years in MLB. He’s in (mostly) good company; the others were Kyle Freeland (2018), Noah Syndergaard (2016), Jacob deGrom (2015), the late Jose Fernandez (2013), and Matt Harvey (2013). Leave it up to Matt Harvey to ruin a perfectly good list.