Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: San Francisco Giants
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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San Francisco Giants Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 73.5
— World Series Odds: 200/1
— Key Additions: Drew Pomeranz
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Chris Shaw, Yangervis Solarte, Pablo Sandoval, Cameron Maybin, Rene Rivera, Drew Ferguson
— Outlook: The Giants will be paying for their never say die attitude, as they refused to enter a rebuild and are now stuck with a roster worthy of a 73.5 win total. What’s worse about the strategy is that they’ll be moving forward without any substantial help on the way from their farm system. It could be a long year for Giants fans.
The core of this lineup is a tired conglomerate of veterans we used to love, led by the catcher DFS players love to hate in Buster Posey. Posey had health issues last season, and was eventually shut down. His 89.1 MPH average exit velocity wasn’t spectacular, but offers some hope he could return to even harder contact once playing without the impairment of a hip injury. Evan Longoria was once a juicy DFS option in Tampa, but now must reestablish that status after a season in which he carried a .295 wOBA / .169 ISO / 85 wRC+. Brandon Belt is the one player on this team we actually liked rostering in 2018, with a 6.8% Barrel rate showing us the promise of upside. Of course, he plays on a bad team in the single worst hitters park in baseball and disappointed us anyway. The bottom line is that this is one of the worst batting situations for MLB DFS, and we will often want nothing to do with them.
The pitching in San Francisco isn’t quite as ugly as the hitting, but still lacks sex appeal. Madison Bumgarner has lost some of the strikeouts (19.8% 2018, average 23.9% career) and is no longer a DFS ace. His health has been a factor, and at age 29 it’s not impossible for him to have a better season than we’ve seen the last two. Regardless, we should still temper any expectation of him suddenly being an elite option again.
If Derek Holland has shown us anything, it’s that times change and people change. Holland went from DFS punching bag in 2017 to… roster worthy strikeout pitcher? Not exactly, but he did have flashes of DFS viability mixed in with his usual hard hits and fly balls. His home park is the perfect place for his style, and the 23% strikeout rate is acceptable at the right price.
The balance of the projected starting five is a mystery box of hard hits and fly balls located on thin ice. We’ll have to step cautiously if we want to take a chance on them. Dereck Rodriguez is a 26 year old righty who’s ERA (2.86) did not match PlateIQs idea of a good DFS pitcher. He offers very few strikeouts and the combination of a 40% rate for both fly balls and hard hits. This is not normally a sign of greatness.
Drew Pomeranz and Jeff Samardzija were once players we could count on for strikeouts, but have recently taken a plunge into the attackable category of pitcher. Of the two, Samardzija has the higher upside and was dealing with injuries a season ago. He’s shown he can go deep in games, and has looked good in spring action. The oft-injured Pomeranz reportedly gained 15 lbs. this offseason to help guard against injury. Not even a fatter Pomeranz can suffer another 12.8% BB rate nor a 19.2% K rate. If he doesn’t start to miss bats again and avoid free passes, he could be job hunting before long.
— DFS Ownership Trends: The list of pitchers more popular than Madison Bumgarner last year would be just as convincing of his decline as any other stat I could show you. 72 pitchers were more popular than MadBum, and you’d start to run out of big names quickly if you started trying to name them. The Giants as a team were the 3rd least popular DFS team in 2018 and played within the least popular park. It looks like Deja Vu all over again in 2019.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Here are a few catchers with more home runs than Buster Posey over the last three seasons: James McCann, Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Wieters, Chris Iannetta …you get the idea. Home runs aren’t necessarily Posey’s game (especially with half his PAs coming at the newly named Oracle Park), and to be fair, Posey’s 116 wRC+ ranks third among catchers in that span. But DFS, in large part, is about identifying the guys most likely to hit one out. Posey is rarely that guy. He’ll likely be priced at the top of the catcher pool all year. More often than not, it’s better to look elsewhere.
— It’s no secret that Madison Bumgarner is no longer the ace he once was. But if you’re going to play him, do it when he’s pitching at home. Since 2016, Bumgarner’s 2.27 ERA ranks second to only Clayton Kershaw among pitchers with at least 200 innings at home. His .254 wOBA is tied for fourth in MLB with Max Scherzer.