FanDuel NFL Single Game Strategy: Ravens at Rams
Hello Grinders. FanDuel DFS has several big Single Game contests this Monday night for the Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams game. Let’s break down a few aspects of the game and touch on some ideas for roster construction:
The Game Script
Despite being on the road, the Ravens project as three-point favorites on the NFL odds board over the Rams. If you expect the Ravens to be in a positive game script, we should expect to see a ton of rushing attempts from Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. It’s varied week-by-week, but we’ve typically seen some kind of 50/40/10 split in terms of snaps from Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. The Rams rank well against the run, however, ranking 3rd in Run DVOA but just 17th in Pass DVOA. Jackson hasn’t been asked to throw much lately, posting pass attempt totals of just 20, 23, 17 and 24 over his last four games (all of which have been blowout wins that have been decided by 14 or more points).
Vegas has this game close enough where I’m hesitant to go heavy on the Ravens run game despite the expected positive game script, as Jackson hasn’t utilized his running backs much in the pass game this season should the Ravens actually find themselves in a negative game script and play from behind. Ingram has just 17 receptions all season in 10 games, although two were converted into touchdowns. The problem with the Ravens is that their production in the passing game can come from several spots.
If you want to be contrarian and assume a positive game script for the Rams, then that leads us to Todd Gurley. We have not seen the Rams just unleash Gurley this season outside of Week 5 where he played on 93% of the snaps. In the last two weeks he’s played on 74% and 75% of the team’s snaps, and his 25 rushing attempts last week were by far his highest total of the season (he hadn’t rushed more than 18 times in a game prior to last week’s outing). It’s worth noting the team was without both Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods last week, so it would make sense they’d lean more on the run. Cooks is back after passing the league’s concussion protocol, but this was his 5th known concussion so you have to wonder if this is going to be an issue longterm. The team is also expected to get Robert Woods back from a personal issue. He rejoined the team this week and is officially questionable as of this writing, as the team hasn’t committed to him playing just yet. Should he miss the game, Josh Reynolds would fill his spot.
The MVP
With FanDuel sporting one MVP spot that has a 1.5x point multiplier, we’ll want to get this right. The thing that has always puzzled me is that FanDuel doesn’t price the MVP spot any differently than the flex positions, meaning it has always made the most sense for me to roster the player with the highest projection in the MVP spot and take my chances elsewhere. Jackson will probably be the highest owned MVP spot, and based on the RotoGrinders projections, he also has the highest projection out of any player in this game. He’s my choice for the MVP spot and I realize that’s not very sneaky.
There is always a fair case to be made to fade Jackson in the MVP spot and play him in the AnyFlex spot instead – injury, variance, etc. I would normally advocate a Rams pass catcher as I tend to believe wideouts carry a higher ceiling on FanDuel scoring. This would lead me to Cooper Kupp. Kupp has one 30+ FD point game under his belt and several 20+ FD games as well. It’s possible the Ravens score their points on the ground and in a negative game script, the Rams are forced to air it out. Kupp carries the highest projection out of all the pass catchers, and with Woods’ status unknown as of this writing and Cooks coming back from a concussion, I lean Kupp as my favorite option of this Rams receiving corp.
You can also make a case for Jared Goff, but FanDuel scoring tends to reward the receivers much more than it does the quarterbacks that aren’t mobile (such as Goff). This is why I’d prioritize Jackson first (for his rushing upside) and then Kupp before Goff. The Ravens have also been stingy against the pass this season, ranking 3rd in Pass DVOA but just 25th in Run DVOA (a funnel defense!).
Given that funnel defense, you could also make a case for Todd Gurley. But with Cooks and Woods likely back, I don’t know if we see another 25 rushing attempt game by Gurley here as they haven’t been the type of team to give him a heavy workload. He’s also always at risk to have his touchdowns vultured by Malcolm Brown, such as how it happened last week. This is a good spot on paper for Gurley, but it’s hard to prioritize him as an MVP knowing there are workload concerns with a full Rams squad returning.
The AnyFlex
Outside of Jackson, Kupp, Goff and Gurley (who I consider the four obvious studs of this game), we’ll still need to find some other options to fill out our AnyFlex spots. Just to reiterate, I love Jackson in the MVP spot and including one of Kupp/Goff/Gurley in my AnyFlex given their massive roles in their offense, but here are a few other options I’m considering:
Mark Ingram – Ingram is going to be very popular on this slate with the Ravens as slight favorites, and I don’t mind the call at all. By rostering both Ingram and Jackson, you’re probably capturing 75% of the Ravens’ rushing attack. Ingram is very touchdown-dependent and it does scare me considering the Rams are 3rd in Run DVOA, but I almost think the combination of Ingram’s touchdown upside and the likelihood he’s going to carry massive ownership is enough for me to pay up for him and then differentiate my lineup elsewhere through a lower-owned player.
Mark Andrews – Andrews has been the clear-cut WR1 for the Ravens, leading the team in receptions (48), receiving yards (598) and receiving touchdowns (6). The crazy thing about Andrews is that he doesn’t even play many snaps. Over his last three games, he’s played just 34%, 51% and 35% of the snaps. Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst continue to outsnap Andrews (and are viable dart throws as Jackson spreads the ball around), but they typically don’t see the same volume as Andrews does.
Seth Roberts – I wanted to write up Marquise Brown, who is a huge big-play option and someone I’d definitely work in if you’re MME’ing. But I think it’s noteworthy that Brown continues to play through his ankle injury and play limited snaps. He’s played fewer than 60% of the snaps in his last four games, but meanwhile, Seth Roberts played a team-high 64% of snaps last week and caught his lone target for a 15-yard touchdown. It’s incredibly disappointing he was targeted just once despite his high snap rate, but it looks like he’s going to be on the field and will come at a fraction of the ownership of guys like Hollywood Brown or Willie Snead. I don’t mind Roberts as a YOLO dart.
Greg Zuerlein – Zuerlein is actually more expensive than someone like Marquise Brown and similarly priced as someone like Brandin Cooks, which feels wild but he’s been so consistent this season. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in half of his games, and this improved Ravens secondary could make it hard for the Rams to make some splash plays with their wideouts. The Rams are also 15th in red zone efficiency, meaning they’ve been league average at converting when getting near the goal line. Zuerline may not have a massive ceiling, but he carries a decent floor given the game environment.
Brandin Cooks – If Kupp is too expensive to get to, I like Cooks as the pivot. He’s $1,500 less than Robert Woods (who still isn’t a lock to play yet) and projects similarly. Yes, we don’t know how Cooks is going to look coming back from another concussion, but you’d have to think the team wouldn’t have cleared him if he wasn’t ready. After five touchdowns last season in 16 games, Cooks has just one this season in eight games. If you believe in positive touchdown regression, Cooks is a prime candidate for that.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.