Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-11-24 00:21:06

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage. When looking at salaries on FanDuel this week, I did not see many screaming bargains. That makes it even more important to find players that can meet or exceed value.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Eli Manning – (QB) Giants vs. DAL

Manning is the quarterback I will be rolling out most this week and spending my extra cap space on other positions. His season has been a disappointment to date though he has shown signs of turning the corner. He was close to connecting with Cruz on an easy touchdown last week that would have made his fantasy day look even better.

Dallas’ pass defense has been horrid this season. They have allowed opposing passers to complete 66 percent of their throws for 3,299 yards (330 per game) and 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. They have been particularly bad the past three weeks against Detroit, Minnesota and New Orleans. Dallas is not getting pressure on the quarterback from their base defense and Monte Kiffin is not known for his blitz calls in his hybrid Cover-2 scheme. When the Cowboys do blitz (about 17 percent) they are largely ineffective only sacking the quarterback seven percent of the time. Their completion percentage allowed only drops from 66 percent to 64 and they still allow just as many yards (627 4:1).

Manning does not come without risk this week but the matchup is there for the picking.

Projection:

Case Keenum – (QB) Texans vs. JAX

Keenum is another risky proposition this week. He was replaced by Matt Schaub in the second half last week – who promptly completed less than half of his throws and avoided throws greater than 10 yards downfield (8.5 aDOT). A big reason Andre Johnson has been on fire lately is because Keenum is not afraid to take chances downfield. Keenum has the second highest aDOT (average depth of throw) in the NFL this year. He leads the NFL in deep accuracy percentage (60%) on throws greater than 20 yards downfield.

Those throws account for 16 percent of his passing attempts for a total of 346 yards passing and four touchdowns. All for a player that supposedly had a weak arm coming into the NFL. He is also best while using play action. His accuracy percentage increases drastically on play fakes (+16%) with a QB rating of 138.4. Without play action, his accuracy drops to 51 percent with a QB rating of 80.0. Needless to say, he will have some easy throws to make against Jacksonville if Ben Tate can have some early success on the ground.

Not to beat a dead horse, but the Jaguars defense is bad. Everyone knows it. They allow passers to complete 66 percent of their throws for 262 yards and two touchdowns each week. They struggle to tackle as well – 127 of those passing yards come after the initial catch which amounts to approximately half of their yards allowed. The book on Keenum is that he struggles when pressured. His accuracy drops to 53 percent when pressured. Lucky for him, even under defensive mind Gus Bradley, the Jaguars cannot get to the quarterback. When the Jaguars blitz (61 times this year), they only have four sacks and are even more vulnerable downfield.

Keenum will benefit from the recent poor play of the Texans defense as well. Last week Matt McGloin looked like an all-pro and the Jaguars will keep it close enough that both teams will be going for the win in the fourth quarter.

Projection:

Zac Stacy – (RB) Rams vs. CHI

The Rams are coming off the bye week and they draw an enticing matchup against Chicago for their ground game. In the last five games, the Bears have allowed 745 (5.1) yards rushing and eight touchdowns. That includes 367 yards after contact (2.5) with 23 missed tackles and seven of eight touchdowns coming in the red zone. To add insult to injury, NT Stephen Paea is out for this contest.

PFF’s Elusive Rating gauges the success of a running back independent of his offensive line. Stacy has been good in this area with 23 forced missed tackles and 2.6 yards after contact per attempt on his 144 offensive touches – good for an Elusive Rating of 40.9. Ray Rice who looked like his old self in the mud at Soldier Field is one of the worst running backs in the league this year in ER with a score of just 8.1. He has 10 forced missed tackles on 176 touches. Rice had a sub 3.0 YPC going into Week 11 and he had 5.2 against this same Bears defense on 25 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown with another three catches for 17 yards.

Needless to say, Stacy should have a field day this week and he will be the central focus of the Rams attack.

Projection:

Frank Gore – (RB) 49ers at WAS

This one is pretty easy if you forgive Gore’s last two weeks. He was as consistent as they come in the daily arena with 558 yards rushing and six touchdowns in the six game stretch beginning Week 3 through the 49ers’ Week 9 bye. In that stretch, only Jamaal Charles and Knowshon Moreno had more fantasy points. Gore is a true grinder in the sense of the word. His Elusive Rating is 20.8, nearly double Rice but half of Stacy’s scores for context. Gore has 20 forced missed tackles on 134 touches and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt.

Washington has played a “bend but don’t break” style of run defense the last five weeks. They have only allowed 3.9 YPC (105 for 414) to running backs; however, they have allowed eight touchdowns. Also, they have been horrendous tackling with 25 missed tackles on running backs and including 246 rushing yards after contact out of those 414 yards. Matt Forte (3 TD), Adrian Peterson (2) and LeSean McCoy (2) have enjoyed plenty of fantasy success against the Redskins.

Gore will see plenty of work and there is not a chance he only has one touch in the fourth quarter this week like he did against the Saints.

Projection:

Vincent Jackson – (WR) Buccaneers at DET

A common theme in this weekly article is to focus on wide receivers facing the Lions. Antonio Brown was our recommendation last week and he exceeded our projections by a mile with 13 targets, seven catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Most of his success came after the catch with 95 of his 147 yards coming after the catch and both touchdowns were caught outside the 20 yard line. To put the Lions’ struggles into context, here is how they have fared against opposing No. 1 receivers (Jeffery and Marshall are a 1A and 1B) the last five games:

In total, the Lions have given up 60 catches for 1,023 yards and 11 touchdowns to all opposing wide receivers in that five game stretch. That’s good for 17.1 YPC and an average of an extra seven yards gained from where the target and catch occurred. On a weekly basis, we can figure the Lions surrender 12 catches for 205 yards and 1.8 touchdowns – and they are lucky enough that Calvin Johnson is on their team. The Lions allow too many receivers to gain extra yardage. We don’t care if it is defensive scheme or lack of talent. There is a strong trend we need to take advantage each week.

This one is set up nicely for Jackson. He’s the clear top option on his team with no competition for targets. Since Mike Glennon became the starter, 33 percent of his throws have been directed at Jackson – good for 11.6 targets per game.

Projection:

Kendall Wright – (WR) Titans at OAK

Wright has been a recommendation a few weeks this year. He has yet to have that breakout performance we hope for, but he’s been as solid as they come at a bargain value. The slot receiver has been the top target for backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick since he took over the job with Locker done for the year. Wright has averaged at least eight targets each week and had a season-high of 12 on Thursday night against the Colts. He’s dangerous after the catch with 62 percent of his 660 receiving yards coming after the catch or an average of seven yards each catch. He’s due for a long touchdown.

The Raiders have struggled against the pass this year and now have rookie cornerback D.J. Hayden on injured reserve. In their last four games, they have allowed receivers to total 54 catches for 813 yards (15.1 YPC) and six touchdowns or 13.5 catches for 203 yards and 1.5 touchdowns each week. Our data allows us to split out just wide receivers lined up in the slot during that stretch as well. The Raiders allow four catches for 67 yards and 0.5 touchdowns to slot receivers and 37 percent of that receiver yardage is gained after the catch. Here is how the Oakland defenders have fared against slot receivers the last four games:

I could see a scenario where Wright burns Brandian Ross for a long touchdown. Riley Cooper beat Ross in coverage in Week 9 on a 42 yard catch and run on a wide receiver screen where Ross took a bad angle in slot coverage. Wright is a better overall athlete than Cooper can has the quickness to take advantage of a similar miscue.

Projection:

Victor Cruz – (WR) Giants vs. DAL

Cruz is slowly getting back on track even though he has not scored a touchdown since Week 4 at Kansas City. He has averaged 9.3 targets for the last four games and caught eight passes for 110 yards against Green Bay last week. He just missed scoring a touchdown last week when Manning missed him wide open with a clear lane to the end zone. While Cruz has been a disappointment for several weeks in the DFS world, his receiving metrics are now on pace where he was at last season – save for the lower touchdown rate. That will regress and he will score again, he gets too many chances not to.

We’ll keep this simple and piggy-back on what was said above about the Cowboys defense. In the last three games, Dallas has allowed 46 catches for 735 yards and three touchdowns. And 265 yards of that came after the catch in the open field. “Calvin Johnson(player-profile)”:/players/Calvin_Johnson-12198’s performance skews the numbers just a bit.
I’m stacking Manning with Cruz where it makes sense.

Projection:

Coby Fleener – (TE) Colts at ARZ

The Cardinals defense has been tough in recent weeks but they struggle badly when covering opposing tight ends. Case in point: Danny Noble (who?) took a 12 yard target for a 64 yard touchdown last week with Patrick Peterson in coverage. In the last three weeks, the Cardinals have allowed 33 catches for 438 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends or 6.6 receptions for 87.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Whatever the Cardinals have done in coverage is not working and there doesn’t look like there is relief in sight. Here is a look at how the Cardinals decide to matchup with opposing tight ends in coverage:

For the most part, either the free safety or left cornerback has primary responsibility. At cornerback, Peterson and Jerraud Powers have allowed 10 catches for 179 yards and a touchdown in that three game stretch. It is skewed by the Noble touchdown, but regardless is not good. Rashad Johnson (yeah, the guy who lost part of his finger this year) and Yeremiah Bell have not been much better allowing 12 catches for 174 yards and three touchdowns. At least they are all consistent.

Fleener is coming off a career-best eight catch day against Tennessee and is the de facto No. 2 target for Andrew Luck after T.Y. Hilton. He’s still reasonably priced and will have no issue hitting value in a prime matchup.

Projection:

Vernon Davis – (TE) 49ers at WAS

Jimmy Graham already played on Thursday night which leaves Rob Gronkowski as the top high-priced tight end on the board this weekend. While Gronk will have a good game, Davis will be a better value against a suddenly poor Redskins defense. In Washington’s last five games, they have allowed 25 catches for 296 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends or five catches for 59.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Just recently, backup tight end John Carlson burned them for seven catches for 98 yards a touchdown.

The 49ers passing attack has been unreliable at best this season, though Colin Kaepernick best games also coincide with a strong performance from Davis. This one is set up for Davis to be the focal point of the passing game and he has received 22 percent of Kaepernick’s throws this season despite missing one game. It would not surprise me to see Davis as the top scorer at tight end this weekend.

Projection: