Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-12-15 03:37:20

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before.

I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage. This week I’m going to focus on DraftKings.com with the final week of qualifying for their Fantasy Football Millionaire Grand Final with a $1,000,000.00 top prize. To win a ticket, you are going to need to go off the beaten path and these players can get you there.

Disclaimer: I would not build a lineup that consists of only these players.

Let’s get to it.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Andy Dalton – (QB) Bengals at PIT

Dalton was a huge performer for those that trusted him in the winter conditions with four total touchdowns (one rushing touchdown). It helps shed some light on his primetime matchup this week against a traditionally tough Steelers’ defense. The Steelers look daunting on paper – they have a top-10 pass defense, though they are fading fast despite a 3-2 record in their last five games. Those passing yards allowed are skewed by subpar performances from Jake Locker, Jay Cutler, Geno Smith and Terrelle Pryor who all failed to top over 200 yards passing. In their last six games, they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for 289 yards and two touchdowns per game – a far cry from their heyday.

A few other things working in Dalton’s favor is his surprising deep ball accuracy even though he has a weaker arm. Of course it helps to have a player like A.J. Green catching your rainbow passes. He is how he ranks among quarterbacks with throws over 20 yards this season:

And Ryan Clark at safety and Ike Taylor at cornerback have horrible this year. But we’ll focus on Ike Taylor because he’ll draw Green in coverage. According to our grading system at PFF, Ike Taylor ranks as the 108th best cornerback out of 111 eligible players. He’s been even worse the last four weeks:

Most will avoid Dalton this weekend because of the outdoor venue and “tough” defense. You can be sure OC Jay Gruden will have a plan take advantage of Pittsburgh’s deficiencies that involves shorter throws with the occasional shot play to Green. This is a chance for you to own a quarterback with a lower ownership in GPP’s at a reasonable salary.

Projection:

Jason Campbell – (QB) Browns vs. CHI

Josh Gordon has played in another stratosphere this year and he now has one of the highest salaries at the wide receiver position. Just like my arbitrage recommendation last week of Josh McCown (Marshall and Jeffery), your best bet to get exposure to Gordon is to go with the quarterback slinging him the football in Campbell. Gordon has literally been dragging his quarterback to the top of the leaderboard each week with him. Since Gordon was reinstated in Week 3, his quarterback has ranked as a top-10 option seven times. Let that sink in for a moment because I don’t know many that would have the fortitude to be comfortable with that QB projection before the games start.

The Bears own the 10th best pass defense on paper but that is skewed because their run defense is one of the worst in recent memory. When quarterbacks have wanted to pass on Chicago this year, they’ve had success. Neither Tim Jennings nor Zackary Bowman has the speed at cornerback to keep up with Gordon downfield. That doesn’t factor in tight end Jordan Cameron, who reemerged last week at New England with 9-121-1 on nine targets.

Because the Browns do not have a true feature back to expose Chicago’s deficiencies stopping the run – Norv Turner will call plenty of plays to get the ball downfield. Campbell is quietly enjoying his finest statistical season to date with a career-high touchdown rate (7.8%) and a career low in interception rate (2.6%).

Campbell is a GPP option only and should easily hit value if Gordon has another big day.

Projection:

Shane Vereen – (RB) Patriots at MIA

Shane Vereen makes his second straight appearance on this list for good reason – he put up numbers that would make any wide receiver blush last week with 12 catches for 153 yards (37.2 points on Draft Kings). We knew he’d be in for some tough sledding against the interior of the Cleveland defense but even he managed a goal line touchdown (3-9-1). I focused my take on how the game script would dictate that Vereen would see an ample amount of targets. His numbers were boosted by the successful comeback bid in the fourth quarter where he added seven catches for 60 yards to his totals. They weren’t all screen passes either. In the third quarter, Vereen split out wide on linebacker Craig Robertson and caught a wheel route 35 yards downfield and then tacked on another 15 yards after the catch.

The Dolphins present another good matchup for Vereen’s skill set this week. Last week’s other recommendation Le’Veon Bell managed a decent day with 15 carries for 61 yards and five catches for 28 yards in a losing effort. Bell’s nine targets tied a season-high and Vereen is averaging 10.4 targets per week. Darren Sproles gave this defense fits in Week 4 with 4-28-1 on the ground and 7-114-1 through the air which bodes well for Vereen. Sproles also ran a successful wheel route against free safety Reshad Jones – catching a 17 yard target and gaining 31 yards after the catch. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will have surely viewed that play in their film study.

Even if Stevan Ridley is part of the game plan this week to offset the loss of Rob Gronkowski, it will not impact Vereen’s value. Vereen is on the field in passing situations and Ridley and Blount split the remainder of the carries and snaps last week. Another 37.2 points in full PPR formats may be a bit far-fetched but Vereen is locked into the top-10 this week.

Projection:

Steven Jackson – (RB) Falcons vs. WAS

Steven Jackson is slowly turning around his season with two solid games in a row and is set up nicely for a third game against a Washington team in turmoil. The Redskins’ run defense had struggled in recent weeks and now the locker room has to deal with the hoopla of Robert Griffin III hitting the pine for Kirk Cousins. In the last five weeks, Washington has allowed 483 yards and eight touchdowns to opposing backs, or 24.4 carries, 96.6 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per week. Jamaal Charles had his way last week on the ground (19-151-1) and through the air (2-8-1) and his understudy Knile Davis pitched in 11 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown himself.

Jackson is slowing down gradually but we don’t care about that this week. He’s playing well and has a plum matchup. Don’t overthink it at his reduced salary in a game that the Falcons could win without much of a fight.

Projection:

Chris Ogbonnaya – (RB) Browns vs. CHI

Ogbonnaya is the bargain bin play of the week and now it looks like he will split feature back duties with Fozzy Whittaker. As I mentioned with Campbell, just because the Browns have a favorable matchup on the ground does not mean they have the personnel to exploit it. That’s no slight against Ogbonnaya but he is best as a passing down back a la Vereen (sense a pattern here?). Here are his advanced receiving metrics the past two seasons:

He’s clearly a focal point of the offense when he runs a pass pattern sans Week 14
The last time Willis McGahee missed the majority of a game (Week 11), Ogbonnaya played almost 60 percent of the snaps with eight carries for 69 yards and six catches for 30 yards on 12 targets. Against a worse run defense than Cincinnati, Ogbonnaya is a sneaky RB2/Flex option in your GPP lineup that will allow you to spend capital elsewhere.

Projection:

Pierre Garcon – (WR) Redskins at ATL

This could be a toxic situation to say away from but Garcon has too good of a matchup to ignore. The switch from RGIII to Kirk Cousins is real and it’s happening. Whether this team comes to play to the Georgia Dome is a different story but the key veterans of the offense like Garcon should be fine. Garcon has some experience with Cousins from 2012 where he caught eight passes for 96 yards and a touchdown in part of Week 5 and the entire game in Week 15 at Cleveland. Out of Cousins’ 48 attempts last year, 16 targets were sent Garcon’s way (33%) which provides some safety here.

The matchup couldn’t be better for Garcon this week. Here is how the Falcons defenders have fared against opposing wide receivers since their bye week:

With the injury to Thomas DeCoud, seventh round pick Zeke Motta steps in at safety after allowing four catches for 28 yards last week in his debut including a touchdown to tight end Andrew Quarless. Garcon splits time evenly between the left and right side of the formation as the split end opposite the tight end, so he will see an equal amount of rookie Desmond Trufant and a combination of Asante Samuel and Robert Alford on the other side.

It wouldn’t be shocking to see Garcon with 10 plus targets in this one. He’s worth the risk and Cousins will be competent enough to get him the football. On a side note, I wouldn’t feel comfortable stacking Cousins with Garcon despite the low combined price. The remainder of the Redskins’ skill players worries me.

Projection:

Greg Jennings – (WR) Vikings vs. PHI

Greg Jennings has shown good rapport with Matt Cassel and has 12 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown (17 targets) in his last two games. The explosive nature to his game has passed him by, but on a site like Draft Kings that rewards full PPR scoring – he’s a sneaky option with most users gravitating to the scintillating rookie Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson got the headlines for taking his screen pass for a long touchdown in the waning moments of the game but he is too inconsistent to rely on for production. That’s where Jennings comes in.

His home matchup against the Eagles sets up nicely whether Adrian Peterson suits up or not. The Eagles have struggled with opposing wide outs in their last five games allowing 66 catches for 912 yards and three touchdowns, or 13.2-182.4-0.6 per week. Because Jennings spends more than half his time lined up in the slot, we can break this data off to focus just on wideouts lined up in the slot. During that same stretch, Philadelphia has allowed 19-196-2 to slot receivers or 3.8-39.2-0.4 per week. The majority of that production is from slot corner Brandon Boykin who surrendered the two long touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd from the slot.

Patterson’s emergence will help take attention from Jennings and we could see a vintage day from the veteran.

Projection:

Roddy White – (WR) Falcons vs. WAS

The Roddy White we know and love is back. He’s questionable with a knee injury that he will play through but the troublesome ankle isn’t an issue any longer. To illustrate this, take a look at his splits from the beginning of the season compared to Weeks 13 and 14. Essentially he matched his production from his first eight games in his last two:

Like Jackson above, White faces a Redskins defense that we are not sure if they will show up this week. On paper, the Redskins rank 27th in the league against the pass and some notable top wide receiver performances in recent weeks includes: Dwayne Bowe (4-69-1), Anquan Boldin (5-94-2), Keenan Allen (8-128-1) and Wes Welker (6-81-1). Matt Ryan will be dialed into this one as well; however, he doesn’t present as much upside at his salary and the overall lack of weapons on the Falcons. Ryan has targeted White on 28 percent of his throws the past two weeks – those are No. 1 wide receiver type numbers for the veteran.

Projection:

Ace Sanders – (WR) Jaguars vs. BUF

Call this a hunch, but at a near minimum price, Sanders could be a sneaky flex option. We know the diminutive rookie threw a touchdown pass last week but he’s been an underrated receiver and now Cecil Shorts is going to be a true GTD. The rookie has averaged a healthy five targets per game working 61 percent of the time from the slot at 5-foot-7.

Looking back at Buffalo’s last five games, they give up an average of 4.0 catches for 49.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns to opposing receivers lined up from the slot. A similar player in Harry Douglas caught 6-73 just a few weeks ago and Kenny Stills caught two long touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 8. Not saying it’s a lock, but Sanders gets more than half of his receiving yards after the catch, and he’s due for his first NFL touchdown reception. He could take one to the house against a suspect secondary.

Projection:

Delanie Walker – (TE) Titans vs. ARI

Every week, rinse and repeat – start your tight ends against Arizona. Of course St. Louis went and spoiled the narrative last week after Jared Cook held himself in check for three catches and 49 yards. Delanie Walker is a full go this week after he was inactive against Denver. He will get back to his weekly top-10 production this week.

Projection:

Charles Clay – (TE) Dolphins vs. NE

This one is pretty similar; New England can’t cover the tight end right now – though they aren’t on the Arizona level yet which makes Clay a good value this weekend. In the last four weeks they have given up four touchdowns and 26 catches for 306 to tight ends:

For the most part New England is relying on their safeties to cover tight ends without much luck. Most recently Jordan Cameron busted out of his multi-week funk with 9-121-1 and another touchdown went to his teammate Gary Barnidge.

Injuries have crippled the Patriots defense since Clay last faced them in Week 8 (5-37) and he will have a field day.

Projection: