Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-12-22 09:25:07

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage.

Disclaimer: I would not build a lineup that consists of only these players.

Let’s get to it.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Colin Kaepernick – (QB) 49ers vs. ATL

You will see a common theme this week – semi-stacking the 49ers’ passing attack against the poor Atlanta secondary. The 49ers are suddenly one of the hottest teams in football and their passing game in particular has heated up since the return of injured star receiver Michael Crabtree in Week 13. Here is how Kaepernick has trended in his last three games:

The thing that sticks out immediately that we can capitalize on is that his throws are traveling less through the air and therefore more accurate. That is key because we can see the yards gained after the catch on the rise as San Francisco allows its playmakers do what they do best rather than playing pitch and catch to a spot. Crabtree is helping with that and his presence is creating opportunities for his teammates even if he isn’t 100 percent healthy.

So what does this all mean? Well when we combine these trends with the horrible Atlanta secondary – we get a ripe matchup for the taking. The Falcons have given up an average of 282 yards and 1.8 touchdowns the past four weeks with a 66 percent completion percentage. Drilling down the data even more, they let up an average of 136 yards passing after the initial catch or 48 percent of the yardage allowed is because of poor coverage. I will get into the specific secondary culprits below. With a win, the 49ers lock up a playoff spot. Kaepernick and company will make it a decisive performance.

Projection:

Jay Cutler – (QB) Bears at PHI

The Chicago quarterback (either Josh McCown or Cutler) has been popular around these parts for a good reason – Marc Trestman is a freakin’ offensive genius. We don’t get caught up in season-long statistics much in DFS, but “McCutler” would combine to be QB3 on the season, Matt Forte is RB3, Martellus Bennett TE10, Brandon Marshall is WR5 and Alshon Jeffery WR6.

Of course we want to attack the Philadelphia defense that just made Matt Cassel look like a Pro Bowler. Cassel completed 74 percent of his throws for 382 yards and three combined touchdowns and his 10.3 aDOT (average depth of throw) was two yards higher than his season average. In the Eagles last four games, they have allowed opposing passers to average 274 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns – and that includes the blizzard game against Detroit. Any concern we had with Cutler’s injury was put to rest after he shook off some rust early last week and overcame to tipped interceptions.

Chicago will be playing for a playoff berth if they can win on the road and if their division rivals Green Bay and Detroit lose earlier in the day. Look for them to pass the football all over the yard. Advantage Cutler.

Projection:

LeSean McCoy – (RB) Eagles vs. CHI

McCoy is the top running back this week – bar none. He disappointed fantasy owners last weekend (myself included) with just over 100 combined yards when he could not use his game-breaking ability on the indoor surface of the Metrodome. This week is a different story and we don’t need many advanced stats to tell us why. If you fade McCoy, you could be making a huge mistake – the Bears run defense is as porous as they come. Even the Browns ran for 93 yards and touchdown against them last week. It would be a disservice to not mention him, even if he’s an obvious play.

Projection:

Bobby Rainey – (RB) Buccaneers at STL

On paper, this is a horrible matchup for Rainey. Since the Rams allowed the Colts’ running backs to rush for two yards on nine attempts in Week 10 – they have allowed opposing runners to run for an average of 70 yards per game and a touchdown. That includes when they bottled up the 49ers in Week 13 and the Saints last week.

So why should we expect a turnaround? Rainey was held to 27 yards on 11 carries last week against San Francisco which makes this more of a contrarian play. The offense is going to flow through Rainey because Mike Glennon has regressed badly the last two weeks. Glennon has completed 46 percent of his throws with three picks and five sacks in that stretch. The key is going to be Rainey’s ability to sustain drives with his yards after contact and forced missed tackles. On the season, he’s averaged 3.1 yards after contact per attempt and he forces a missed tackle on 16 percent of his rushing attempts. The Rams have struggled in this area lately. Out of the 281 yards they have allowed in the past four games, 225 yards have come after contact (80%) and have surrendered 20 missed tackles to running backs in that stretch.

The game plan is going to be focused on the running game for both sides. If the Buccaneers can convert some first downs, Rainey should check in with 20-30 carries and a good chance for a touchdown. He also brings the big play element with an 80-yard touchdown run two weeks ago. Only two of his four rushing touchdowns have come in the red zone.

Projection:

Zac Stacy – (RB) Rams vs. TB

Staying with the Rams-Buccaneers game, Zac Stacy should have a similar game script to Rainey. Neither passing attack is going to turn this game into a blowout unless a big defensive turnover greatly alters field position. The Bucs, like the Rams, have been tough against the run in recent weeks – sans the 148 yards they gave up to the 49ers last week. In Tampa Bay’s last four games, they have allowed 374 yards rushing (93.5 per game) to opposing runners but zero touchdowns in that span. They are in the same boat as the Rams in regards to missed tackles (19) and yards after contact (247).

I wouldn’t use both runners from the same game, but I would pair one of them with McCoy for a cheaper alternative to allow me to load up at quarterback and wide receiver in one of the final weeks of regular season DFS.

Projection:

Jordan Todman – (RB) Jaguars vs. TEN

As of press time, Maurice Jones-Drew is questionable to play against Tennessee and has missed practice all week. Enter Todman for the second week in a row. If you took the plunge last week, you are familiar with the former sixth round pick from UConn on his third NFL team. He failed to find the end zone in his first NFL start, but he did total 153 combined yards and chipped in four catches that helps on sites like DraftKings. He flashed plenty of ability. Out of his 109 rushing yards, 81 yards came before he was even touched – he had some massive holes to run right up the middle and off tackle. It was worth noting that he was more comfortable running over center or to his right versus off left tackle.

In their last four games, Tennessee has given up an average of 124 yards rushing and 1.25 touchdowns to opposing running backs which includes luminaries such as Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings and Andre Ellington. Todman will have an opportunity here to pad his yardage after contact totals with the Titans linebackers struggling particularly bad with their run defense grades.

Again, Todman makes a cheaper alternative to pair with McCoy on sites that only allow two starting running backs so that you can spend elsewhere.

Projection:

Michael Crabtree – (WR) 49ers vs. ATL

Michael Crabtree has gradually working himself back into game shape over the past three weeks. He caught his first touchdown of 2013 last week as part of a 5-45 stat line. He isn’t all the way back though. Darrelle Revis shadowed Anquan Boldin almost exclusively last week so teams are ready to dedicate their best coverage corners to Crabtree yet – which is actually great news for his value. And his target volume is only off by approximately one target per game from his two prior seasons. A few things are surprising about his usage so far this year. He is playing in the slot far less than he has in recent seasons, though I would attribute that directly to “Anquan Boldin(player-profile)”:/players/Anquan_Boldin-12160’s presence. He is also seeing more downfield targets than he has in recent years even with the injury, though I would also attribute that to Boldin as well.

I wouldn’t put Crabtree back in the Pierre Garcon class yet, but the Redskin receiver torched this same defense for 7-129-1 last week with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Desmond Trufant was in coverage for Garcon’s 53-yard touchdown and should cover him for a majority of this game with help from Robert Alford. Either rookie corner is up for a tall task this week. Aside from slot corner Robert McClain (likely covering Boldin), the rookie corners are the biggest problem they have allowed an average of 12.5 receptions for 163.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns to opposing wideouts the last four weeks:

The risk with counting on the 49ers’ passing attack is that they could ease up in the second half if they are up big. With the way this team has played lately and they have Super Bowl aspirations, Jim Harbaugh will not let up this week or ever. I’d look for Crabtree to help move the chains but also stretch a few catches with 15+ yard gains.

Projection:

Brian Hartline – (WR) Dolphins at BUF

Brian Hartline has quietly had a successful season under the radar and this is a good week to find a spot in your lineup for him. On paper, the Bills pass defense is tough. In their last four games, they’ve allowed just 8.5 catches for 121 yards on average to opposing wideouts with a lone touchdown in Week 14. Those totals don’t look as impressive when we factor in who those games were against: Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers and Jacksonville. In fact, the receivers that burnt them were to be expected with Vincent Jackson (3-70-1) and Roddy White (10-143). Leodis McKelvin typically stays on the left side and Stephon Gilmore on the right so they don’t technically shadow receivers rather who comes into their vicinity. Because Hartline has lined up exclusively at the X or split end this year, he will see a steady dose of Gilmore who can be beaten and is having a rocky second season. He’s yet to give up a touchdown since Week 10 at Pittsburgh but it was to Jerricho Cotchery of all players.

Ryan Tannehill will keep using quick passes to help his offensive line and Hartline has excelled at slant routes in recent weeks. This one is setting up for a big day if Buffalo puts up a fight at home with Thad Lewis under center. Also working in Hartline’s favor is the Bills could scheme to take away Mike Wallace – although unlikely based on recent data.

Projection:

Torrey Smith – (WR) Ravens vs. NE

Apparently Torrey Smith doesn’t like fantasy owners complaining to him on Twitter about his poor performance. If we breakdown this matchup against New England, no one should have much to complain to him about when it’s all said and done.

The Patriots’ defensive struggles have been well-documented in recent weeks with all the defenders they’ve lost to injury. Just in the last four weeks, opposing wide receivers have caught 12 passes for 182 yards and 0.75 touchdowns against the Patriots. The biggest culprits have been their cornerbacks:

In particular, Mike Wallace (6-105-1), Josh Gordon (7-151-1), Andre Johnson (8-121) and Demaryius Thomas (4-41-1) have all had various levels of success in recent weeks. Aqib Talib should be good to suit up for this contest which isn’t as scary as it first sounded at the beginning of the year for opposing wide receivers. Smith’s value hinges on Joe Flacco ’s knee, but all indications show that Flacco will start this weekend. Expect several deep shots to Smith to test the secondary and for him to finally hit on one of them.

Projection:

Vernon Davis – (TE) 49ers vs. ATL

We’ve already covered how bad the Atlanta secondary is and it is just another reason to keep riding the hot-hand in Vernon Davis. He has a touchdown catch in five straight games and his production has improved with Crabtree drawing some defensive attention from the 49ers’ star tight end.

As mentioned above, the Falcons’ rookie cornerbacks are struggling to cover opposing wideouts, well their veteran safeties are struggling with tight ends also. Thomas DeCoud missed last week and his replacement Zeke Motta was no better. William Moore has also been victimized. If we remove the names from the defenders, we see some clear patterns on how they cover the tight end. Here is the breakdown from the last four weeks:

In that four week span, a tight end facing Atlanta has averaged a modest 6-80-1 stat line each week. The Falcons don’t have anyone who can cover Davis down field. He will have another monster day in conjunction with Kaepernick.

Projection:

Ryan Griffin – (TE) Texans vs. DEN

Originally Garrett Graham was going to be the pick here but his hamstring has him as a game-time decision. So the second UConn graduate makes the list this week as Graham’s replacement in a great matchup against Denver. The Broncos have surrendered five touchdowns to tight ends this year and five tight ends to amass more than 70 yards receiving. Most recently, Anthony Fasano caught seven passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns in two games. Denver has used Wesley Woodyard and Duke Ihenacho almost exclusively lined up against tight ends.

With Matt Schaub back under center, if he keeps up his early season pass of targeting a tight end on 24 percent of his passing attempts – Griffin should have a large fantasy day. He will either be involved in the upset bid or should receive plenty of garbage time in the second half.

Projection: