Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-12-29 00:48:07

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage.

Disclaimer: I would not build a lineup that consists of only these players. Like Week 1, Week 17 is one of the toughest weeks to forecast because we need to factor in the motivation of each team of how much they want to win their game – whether their playoff seeding cannot be changed or if they want to hit the golf course early. Only the DET/MIN, WAS/NYG and HOU/TEN games have zero playoff implications.

Let’s get to it. Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Cam Newton – (QB) Panthers at ATL

Carolina is going to have plenty of reasons to go for the decisive win this week. With a win, they lock up the NFC South and a first round bye and with a win, a Seattle loss, and a San Francisco win – they can lock up the conferences’ top seed. Although Cam Newton had slid towards the finish line in terms of fantasy production, this matchup is set for him to get back to doing what he does best – running the football.

We know Atlanta has been vulnerable through the air in recent weeks but the Panthers will not be able to capitalize on that weakness without Steve Smith in the lineup. When we dig a bit deeper into the numbers, the Falcons have struggled with scrambling quarterbacks as well. The sample size isn’t as large but here is how it breaks down when we remove kneel downs from the equation:

That’s an average of 13.8 yards per week to any quarterback and a total of three touchdowns for the season. If we break it down further, of those 37 attempts – 23 have been pure scrambles on drop backs for 174 yards and a touchdown. We know historically Newton takes of running about six percent of the time.

Even without Smith, Newton will still have LaFell, Olsen and Ginn to throw to. It is hard to envision a scenario where Carolina doesn’t pile it on. Atlanta will have plenty of reasons to keep up an aerial assault themselves (more on that later), so we can expect Carolina to have to keep pace.

Projection:

Terrelle Pryor – (QB) Raiders vs. DEN

Going with Pryor this weekend is asking for punishment but I cannot help myself. His salary isn’t far from the minimum on FanDuel and gets a Denver defense that just lost Von Miller from the lineup. This will be Pryor’s first start since Week 10 and his limited usage in Weeks 14 and 15 (29 snaps). Did we mention that he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 6 at Kansas City?

Let’s forgive and forget. Let’s be honest, we only care about Pryor’s running yardage. Any passing yards he gets is gravy. Here are his splits this year by designed runs and scrambles:

On average, Pryor averages 7.4 carries for 52.7 yards and 0.2 touchdowns each week or about 6.5 fantasy points without throwing a pass. This matchup with Denver could go off the rails in the second half if Denver builds an early lead and then elects to rest their starters the rest of the way. WR Andre Holmes and TE Mychal Rivera have played well of late and will give Pryor some options downfield.

Pryor doesn’t have to light the world on fire to hit two times his salary, in fact, he can hit value by running for 100 yards – something he has already done twice this year.

Projection

LeSean McCoy – (RB) Eagles at DAL

McCoy should be in the disclaimer section as a must-play on a weekly basis. Outside of his clunker at Minnesota in Week 15 – he’s been one of the best weekly options to plug into your lineup. This week he is the top running back play. He benefits from a great matchup on paper and plays for a team facing a must-win situation to get into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed an average of 114 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns this year. In recent weeks, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy and Alfred Morris have each scored a touchdown against them. Philadelphia will run away with this contest with Romo under center for the Cowboys with McCoy as the main catalyst.

Projection:

Knile Davis – (RB) Chiefs at SD

Kansas City has the fifth seed in the AFC all but locked up, so there is a strong likelihood that Andy Reid rests his starters. If he follows his track record from his days in Philadelphia, Jamaal Charles and company would play a series or so before giving way to their backups. The wildcard in this contest is whether San Diego will have anything to play for. If Baltimore or Miami wins during the early slate of games – then San Diego would be eliminated from contention. They need both teams to lose and then take care of business with a team that should treat this contest as a preseason game.

We don’t know much about Knile Davis at this point. The third round pick from Arkansas has 161 yards and two touchdowns in limited duty this year but would be assured of taking over for the remainder of the game if Charles is rested. San Diego isn’t a push over on defense and in the last two weeks has only allowed a combined 71 yards rushing to Denver and Oakland. For the season, they have allowed an average of 90 yards and 0.7 touchdowns each week to opposing running backs.

Going with Davis doesn’t come without risk. The Chargers’ run defense is playing stronger in recent weeks, the Chiefs won’t have all their starters in the game and Davis has averaged just eight snaps played each week. However, the payoff could be huge if Davis busts out a long touchdown run.

Projection:

Montee Ball – (RB) Broncos at OAK

Denver is playing for the top seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the postseason so we can expect them to go for the win this week. Whether that involves getting an insurmountable lead and then pulling their starters or treating like a normal game – there is going to be plenty of offense to go around against a poor Oakland defense. My hunch is that Denver plays for the win but gives their key starters some needed rest especially with Welker sitting out the finale.

Oakland’s run defense has been easy pickings for opposing runners all year. They allow an average of 94 yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns a week with 53 missed tackles. That means that 14 percent of the time, they are going to potentially give up additional yardage. For the season, they have allowed an extra 853 yards after first contact.

Ball is in line to see his first 10 plus carry day since Weeks 13 and 14 when he combined to rush 28 times for 194 yards and a touchdown. Way back in Week 3, Ball ran the ball 11 times for 61 yards against this same defense. Again, going will Ball takes a certain leap of faith however the tea leaves are all laid out for this to be a Denver rout early.

Projection:

Jordy Nelson – (WR) Packers at CHI

This matchup between Green Bay and Chicago will be a playoff-type atmosphere for good reason – the winner takes the NFC North title and moves on to play next weekend. This one will be very different from the Bears’ 27-20 win on Monday Night Football in Week 9 because it marks the return of Aaron Rodgers who broke his collarbone in that same contest. This marks Rodgers first game back and it couldn’t have come at a better time. While Rodgers is not much of a value on most sites, his top target in Nelson has seen his value tank in recent weeks without a consistent option at quarterback to get him the football.

The Bears have been so-so in defending the passing game in recent weeks, but only in the context that teams are simply running all over them. Last week the Eagles only needed 230 passing yards from Foles to drop 54 points on this same Bears defense. Still, they have allowed at least one touchdown per game to a wide receiver in that stretch (Cooper, Gordon, Bryant, Beasley, and Jennings). Here is the breakdown by defender:

It is interesting that the Packers have elected to use Jordy Nelson in the slot more this year to compensate for the loss of Randall Cobb – who may make a brief appearance this week as of press time. If Nelson (46% slot) does keep up this recent trend, he can expect to see a lot of Isaiah Frey rather than Jennings or Bowman. Eddie Lacy is expected to play through an ankle injury but that could also be another reason to get Nelson involved and Rodgers to shake off the rust before a playoff run. Of course they need to win the game first though that seems like a forgone conclusion with how this Bears team played last Sunday.

Get Nelson in your lineups as the arbitrage (drink) play to get exposure to Rodgers.

Projection:

Kendall Wright – (WR) vs. HOU

Kendall Wright has been more of a breakout star in daily sites like DraftKings where catches count for the full point but he’s done well for himself at FanDuel as well. This game with Houston has no bearings on the playoff race which leads me to believe the Titans will try to go for statistical glory. Wright stands just 11 receptions from 100 for the season and based on recent comments from his wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson – they think he’s a special talent that is revolutionizing the position. I think they give him every chance to get that total.

As for his matchup against Houston, there isn’t anyone that will be able to cover Wright from the slot. In the last two weeks, both right cornerback Kareem Jackson and slot corner Brice McCain have combined to give up 259 yards receiving and four touchdowns:

Wright has spent 30 percent of his snaps this year at LWR (Jackson at RCB) and 60 percent in the slot (McCain). Needless to say, Wright’s performance in Week 2 of 7-54-1 is the starting point. This one is set up for Ryan Fitzpatrick to target upwards of 10 plus times this week with a good shot of connecting on 11 throws to hit that elusive 100 reception plateau.

Projection:

Da’Rick Rogers – (WR) Colts vs. JAX

Indianapolis is locked in as the AFC South division winner but they have an outside shot at a first round bye if they win and both New England and Cincinnati losses. This one is up in the air if the Colts but with the Bengals playing at the same time and the Patriots not until later – I’d say that Chuck Pagano plays this one to win and keep his team sharp going into Wildcard Weekend at the very least.
So if there is a small threat of any starters sitting a portion of this game, I want to target a player like Rogers who could use the extra work since he’s a relatively new starter on this team. He’s been quiet since his breakout three weeks ago and only has six catches for 65 yards in his last two games.

However, he has the ability to make a game breaking play on shorter routes or a deep pattern than Jacksonville will struggle to defend with starting left corner Dwayne Gratz out due to injury. Will Blackmon will fill in for Gratz. Here is how the Jaguars have fared against opposing pass catchers in the last four games (13-198-1.5 to WRs):

Based on Rogers’ snap splits, he is likely to see a bit more of Blackmon than Ball with the team favoring him at RWR most plays. Rogers is the kind of high-upside GPP play no one will consider but could help you take down a tournament – especially if he can replicate his Week 14 performance of 6-107-2.

Projection:

Tony Gonzalez – (TE) Falcons vs. CAR

This will be the last game in the illustrious Hall of Fame career of Tony Gonzalez. After we’ve let that sink in for a moment, he makes a great play in DFS this weekend for a few reasons. First, the Falcons are in role of spoiler with no 2013 playoff hopes remaining against a division rival trying to lock up home field advantage in their house. Next, the Panthers have been susceptible to tight ends in recent weeks – allowing four touchdowns in their last three games (three to Jimmy Graham).

With a nothing to lose mantra, Matt Ryan will pepper Gonzalez with targets as a career send off for one of the all-time greats. They will do everything in their power to get him one final spike over the goal post.

Projection: