Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-10-27 09:04:34

Last week the calls on Health Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Eddie Lacy, among others were spot on, however, the Eagles-Cowboys and Vikings-Giants games did not go according to script. Nick Foles was subpar before leaving due to a concussion (Matt Barkley was much worse with three interceptions in the fourth quarter) and the Giants never capitalized on their plus matchup. That’s the last time I trust Eli Manning in 2013. Luckily the Packers can exploit the matchup the Giants could not this weekend. More on that soon.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it.

Picks for Week 8

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Robert Griffin III – Jordan Reed – Pierre Garcon – Redskins at DEN

Just like last week, we are going to do a mini-stack against an opposing defense. Vegas has told us they anticipate this to be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend and we want the most cost-prohibitive way to get a piece of the action. Both defenses are playing so poorly that could be a back and forth shoot out all day or if one team runs away with it – there will be plenty of garbage time in the fourth quarter. With the mild injury to Peyton Manning, let’s fade the majority of the Broncos’ offense and play the hot hand with the Redskins.

RGIII is finally showing the explosion he displayed as a rookie, and coincidently, is running the football more on designed runs. Out of Griffin’s 11 runs for 84 yards last week – only two of those were scrambles. The willingness that team is exposing their franchise quarterback to more hits means they think he’s near 100 percent healthy. It is also encouraging that Griffin is avoiding big hits by sliding or running out of bounds versus throwing hit shoulder into defenders like he did last year. Here is how the Broncos have fared against quarterbacks willing to scramble against them and the combined yardage allowed when combining designed runs with scrambles:

As well as expecting a decent day on the ground for Griffin, the Broncos have been vulnerable to the pass as well. Whether it is teams giving them a good game or piling up garbage time production – the Broncos have allowed an average of 339 yards and two touchdowns through the first seven weeks of the season. There is no need to look past the Redskins’ top two receiving options (Garcon and Reed) because Griffin is not looking their way.

The touchdowns haven’t been there for Garcon this season, but he’s a lock for over 10 targets a week and off to the best start of his career. He’s the lock down number one target and he will enjoy a solid matchup against Denver, who has struggled with a team’s opposing top receiver:

And if we convert this data into who covered whom, we get this breakdown:

Essentially, Rodgers-Cromartie hasn’t been up to task – though the defenders don’t stick to just one side of the field. Next we get to Reed who turned into a DFS legend just a weekend ago, catching all nine of his targets for 134 and a touchdown. That only told part of the story because Griffin threw him the football on 42 percent of the routes Reed ran. Plus Reed isn’t a traditional inline player – he spent 36 percent of his snaps in the slot or out wide against Chicago, including time at fullback. The touchdown he caught over an unprepared Chris Conte was lined up wide right. Reed will be able to exploit similar matchups against Denver.

Here is his position specific breakdown year to date:

These Redskins will likely be heavily used in GPP tournaments, but make must adds to your 50/50 and heads up contests. Even if you do roll them out, they will produce unlike my recommendation for the Giants stack last week.

WAS Projections

Terrelle Pryor – (QB) Raiders vs. PIT

Pryor has been a recommendation around these parts a few times this year, and even in a tough matchup on paper against Pittsburgh, he should have a big week relative to his salary cost.
We know the offensive cast isn’t great in Oakland, but we only care about that to an extent. In five games so far, Pryor is putting up low-level RB2 rushing totals each week. He actually leads all quarterbacks in rushing attempts per game, second in rushing yards per game and leads in designed runs per game:

The Steelers pass defense has been better as of late, but have really yet to be tested this season. The Bears posted 40 points on them in Week 3 without much help needed from Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel posted 248 passing yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. None of the other quarterbacks (Locker, Dalton, G. Smith, and Flacco) gave them trouble – though that doesn’t mean Pryor can’t present some issues for them.

Pryor’s Projection

Le’Veon Bell – (RB) Steelers at OAK

One week after struggling against the stout Jets’ run defense, Bell had plenty of success against a Baltimore run defense that is no slouch to the tune of 19 carries for 93 yards.

Oakland has been susceptible to the run lately. In Week 6 before their bye week, the defense kept Jamaal Charles under wraps with 78 yards and an YPC of 3.5 yards but with two red zone touchdown runs, three tackles avoided and five catches for 57 yards.

At home against the Jets last weekend, the Steelers played ball control football and had a near 50-50 run/pass ratio in play calling in their 59 offensive plays. On the road against a team that plays better in front of its home crowd – the Steelers would be wise to install a similar game plan this week that is also Bell-centric.

Bell’s Projection

Eddie Lacy – (RB) Packers at MIN

Eddie Lacy is catching fire lately and draws a struggling run defense that just made street free agent Peyton Hillis look like the Madden cover athlete again.

All joking aside, the Vikings have been horrendous to opposing runners this year. They have been burned mostly by passing down backs like Matt Forte, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell but players like rookie Le’Veon Bell have had success too on the ground. All in all, the Vikings surrender 81 yards and a rushing touchdown with seven catches for 70 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game – which is the most fantasy points allowed to running backs out of all 32 teams.

Le’Veon Bell is probably the best comparison we have for Lacy facing this defense when he went 16-57-2 and 4-27 in Week 4. Like Bell, Lacy is a lock for over 20 touches this week given the myriad of injuries the Packers have on offense.

Lacy’s Projection

Marques Colston – (WR) Saints vs. BUF

I haven’t been able to put my finger on Colston’s slow start to the season, but I do know that if Jimmy Graham is going to be limited or miss the game entirely then Colston is going to be the player to fill the void. Colston has always been an inside the numbers receiver – a WR/TE hybrid if you will – and the Saints are going to need him to return to form. He doesn’t have any injuries reported. It will be tough to trust him coming off his one catch for 11 yard performance in Week 6 though. Let’s put your mind at ease and look at Colston’s career rates from 2008 to today and see that he isn’t far off from where he has been and his skill level is not declining:

His snap usage, catch rate, YPR, and aDOT (average depth of target) are all the same. His targets are down, but that can be fixed quickly. Especially in a one week window where there could be an abundance of them available.

Keep in mind that Buffalo has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year and is fresh off giving up 5-40-2 touchdowns to Brandon Gibson – who himself is a rocked up slot receiver like Colston.

Colston’s Projection

Jordy Nelson – (WR) Packers at MIN

Jordy Nelson, the last Green Bay receiver left standing.

With the injuries piling up, Nelson and now Jarrett Boykin are the best options for Aaron Rodgers. Lucky for us Nelson is a top-level talent and he is ripe to take advantage of this plum matchup against Minnesota. Even with a depleted receiving corps, Green Bay will be able to exploit the porous Vikings secondary whereas the Giants could not on Monday Night football.

Statistically, Nelson is off to his best fantasy points per game start to his career – even ahead of the 2011 season where he scored 15 touchdowns. The weekly targets are finally there for him between 7-8 per game – up from his average of 5.9 the previous two years as a starter. Nelson is playing so well that he caught a touchdown on the goal line last week against Cleveland cornerback Joe Haden – the first Haden has surrendered all season.

I would not be surprised to see Nelson as the top wide receiver scorer this weekend.

Nelson’s Projection

Eric Decker – (WR) Broncos vs. WAS

Sticking with the Denver-Washington game, it is perplexing why Decker remains the least expensive of the Broncos wide receivers on Fanduel. He certainly has been the most consistent the last few weeks of the trio and over the past five games is the top wide receiver in PPR leagues.

As I covered last week, the Redskins struggle with opposing wide receivers. Through six weeks they allow 13.8 receptions, 201 yards (14.6 YPC) and a touchdown each game to wideouts. Breaking that down further to just outside receivers (Decker is out wide 80% of snaps) – 9.3 receptions, 142.2 yards (15.3 YPC) and 0.8 touchdowns.

With top cover corner DeAngelo Hall likely assigned to Demaryius Thomas, Decker will have his way with Josh Wilson and David Amerson at the other corner.

Decker’s Projection

Rob Gronkowski – (TE) Patriots vs. MIA

The Dolphins make this pretty easy for us. Gronkowski is really good. Their defense of opposing tight ends is awful. Put those two things together, and we are looking at the top tight end scorer this weekend. The Dolphins have allowed an average of five catches for 68 yards and a touchdown each week to opposing tight ends. Some luminaries in the same vein of Gronkowski include: Jordan Cameron (8-95-1), Jimmy Graham (4-100-2) and Coby Fleener (4-69-1).

Gronkowski’s 17 targets last weekend were a career high for a single game (post season included) and while shaking off the rust brought in eight passes for 114 yards. With his brace on his elbow, he was not in his customary inline role, instead lining up in the slot on 70 percent and out wide on 10 percent of his snaps. It will be interesting to monitor that shift in usage in the coming weeks, but if it continues this week – it means he will have cleaner releases off the line of scrimmage.

Gronkowski’s Projection