From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Friday, September 14th

The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.

Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.

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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)

Final update. Any further plays will be made via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).

Marlins/Phillies 8.5 Over (100) (FD) 1 unit to win 2
Tigers +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56
Rays -127 (DK) 1.27 units to win 2.27
Nationals -156 (FD) 1.56 units to win 2.56
Reds +1.82 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.82

7:30 ET Update

Coming back to the game at Wrigley. Cole Hamels has been dealing since being dealt. Matt Harvey did strike out a season high 10 last time out, but that was the Padres. Why is the line moving towards the Reds in this game. Hamels actually had his first difficult outing for the Cubs in his last start and he can be streaky. The bullpen just lost Pedro Strop and has just a 9.4 K-BB% over the last month. The offense has a team 51 wRC+ over the last week. Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rizzo have wRC+ below -30 over the last week. Maybe this makes some sense.

I’m not playing any of the three west coast games at this time. If that changes, I’ll post via Twitter. This is the final update here for tonight.

Reds +1.82 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.82

6:30 ET Update

There will definitely be no play on the Daily Odds Boost on FanDuel tonight. I threw the Yankees into my Round Robin lottery ticket with the plays made earlier, but the line for the Cubs keeps going down and I’m trying to figure out why that game is seeing significant reverse line movement.

The line has also since moved against the Detroit play as Cleveland is being solidly backed now, but I still like think the Tigers have a chance with this matchup.

No further plays for the 7pm games. If I can figure out the line movement at Wrigley tonight, I’ll update one last time before 8pm, which may include any west coast plays.

5:15 ET Update

We’ve got most of our lineups (except for West Coast) and a decent forecast, but few umpire assignments with Friday being the first game of most series. There is a lot to like on this slate and some encouraging line movement behind some it, which is a bit scary, but here we go…

Let’s start with one we’re siding with the public on. Wei-Yin Chen has been atrocious on the road (ERA above nine, double his home xFIP) and Zach Eflin has a 7.71 ERA with a 4.82 SIERA over the last month himself. Now, xwOBA (.306) does suggest it’s not nearly that bad, but I don’t think we’re going to need the Marlins to score many runs tonight.

In MLB Alerts today, I mentioned that the Indians might be a bit over-valued against Matt Boyd. Above average strikeout rate and quality contact manager, Boyd is facing Josh Tomlin. Ironically, someone agrees with me because there’s been some reverse line movement on this game. There offensive mismatch is as large as the pitching one, but we’re getting a nice price.

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Both of these teams have been playing great baseball since the break. Edwin Jackson is one of the few things on these teams that I don’t believe is real. He has a large ERA-SIERA gap (1.6) and another large wOBA-xwOBA gap (57 points). This opened at pick, but the Rays have moved into a favorite position with most of the money despite fewer bets.

This next one is a departure for me, but we’re again going with the public and with a fairly decently priced favorite. The problem is that Max Scherzer is not a much larger favorite. Kevin Gausman still has a hard hit rate above 40% with a strikeout rate well below average since being traded, yet only in his last start did he show signs of trouble. Caveat here that I absolutely dread the Washington bullpen and may look to cash out of a close game whenever Scherzer exits.

Lastly, FanDuel is offering their Daily Odds Boost on a Yankees/Cubs parlay (-106 to +130). I like the first part of that a lot from looking at the Toronto lineup. I’m not as confident in the second part and am trying to decide if these odds make it worth the effort.

I’m not as optimistic about 8pm starts yet and haven’t fully looked into west coast games yet. There will be at least one more update.

Marlins/Phillies 8.5 Over (100) (FD) 1 unit to win 2
Tigers +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56
Rays -127 (DK) 1.27 units to win 2.27
Nationals -156 (FD) 1.56 units to win 2.56

Yesterday’s recap:

MLB

Marlins/Mets 8 Under (-118) (DK) 1.18 units to win 2.18 W +1

College Football

Charlotte +2 (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Old Dominion/Charlotte 47.5 Under (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1 L –1.1
Boston College/Wake Forest 56.5 Under (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1 L -1.1

NFL

Bengals -102 (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02 W +1
(Special FD promo – bet gets refunded if winning at halftime and then loses)

MLB

Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 59-64-1 -1.67 units
Sides 31-37 -0.93 units
Totals 29-23-1 +3.65 units
Parlays 1-5 -4.39 units

NFL

Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 3-1 +2 units
Spread 1-0 +1 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit

CFB

Day Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Grand Total 2-4 -2.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 1-2 -1.2 units

There are a number of ways to recap yesterday’s action. Both sides won. The sole MLB play and total cashed. The issue was that weather did not impact the passing games in the two college affairs like reports suggested they might. Still, the first game didn’t climb over until just a few minutes were left. A small overall profit on the day.

FanDuel is doing some really fun things with their online book. I can’t wait to see what the Daily Odds Boost is going to be each day even if it’s done nothing but cost me money. Yesterday, the started an NFL Week Two promo where any SuperBowl futures bet gets refunded up to $50 if the Patriots win instead and moneyline bets this week get refunded (up to $100) if your team is winning at halftime, but goes on to lose. Luckily, the Bengals held on last night and that wasn’t needed. Don’t forget, the $100 first deposit bonus is instant too and only requires a two time play through. The link is above.

Today, let’s use the RotoGrinders NFL content schedule to find daily fantasy pieces that can be useful to sports bettors this weekend.

Aaron’s Information Overload has been posted for Week Two and remember that last week, the pace of play numbers in this article kept me from being more heavily invested in the total in Baltimore. This week, he identifies two teams with running QBs that decreased their pace of play (less time in between snaps) in Week One, which could result in an under the radar shootout.

If you liked Chris Gimino’s work with PlateIQ this season, then you’re also going to love his Stat Factors article this NFL season. While his goal is to identify the biggest game factors in a fantasy sense, readers are just going to get hammered with player and team stats that are going to be incredibly useful in any endeavor that requires some knowledge of each game. I’ll have this one open as I go through each NFL game this weekend.

Before we get to all that though, there are 15 MLB games to pour through tonight and the fact that “bullpening” is becoming so popular makes that task a bit more tedious, especially on full slates. We may have up to four or five teams going in that direction tonight. The Mariners have not even yet confirmed an opening pitcher.

About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.