From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Monday, September 17th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to profit 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
MLB
Mets +124 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.24
Marlins +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36
Reds +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56
Mariners +154 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.54
Diamondbacks -134 (SH) 1.34 units to win 2.34
Rockies/Dodgers 7.5 Under (-120) (FD) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Giants +108 (FD) 1 unit win 2.08
MNF
Bears -4.5 (-108) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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6:45 ET Update
The perils of making these plays early for the sake of this article. The Mets are now up over +130. All of the lineups are in now. There’s quite a bit more to like in MLB and we’ll talk briefly about the football game tonight too.
Patrick Corbin is a fringe Cy Young contender in the NL. The Cubs have a team 46 wRC+ over the last week, while the banged up bullpen has a 9.6 K-BB% over the last month. We haven’t fared well with favorites above -120 this year, but we’re going to try again here. Unfortunately, the option to list Corbin as the starter is not available on either DraftKings or SugarHouse, which have the more favorable line, but I think it might be start to begin doing that more often where available.
Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in baseball. We have to quality pitchers on the mound and while the Dodgers have an offense, the Rockies don’t do well on the road. The Dodgers actually lead MLB with a bullpen 22.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days. I fail to understand why there are more bets on the over. Yet, the total has not increased.
The Padres have a great bullpen, but how the hell is Bryan Mitchell (-4.7 K-BB%) favored over anybody? We’re going to make sure to list Mitchell here.
As for the MNF game, Khalil Mack might eat this offensive line and have Russell Wilson for a snack. I’m not super confident in a team that blew a huge lead and is facing another top QB tonight either. The line has risen to -4.5 and was even -5 for a bit at DraftKings/SugarHouse. I’m torn between playing the Bears or just sitting this one out. The Seahawks are opening with consecutive road games though and while a team with Russell Wilson would seem to almost always have a chance, he’s down his top WR as well and the supporting cast is no longer there on defense. I’m probably going to regret this, but let’s go Bears.
Diamondbacks -134 (SH) 1.34 units to win 2.34
Rockies/Dodgers 7.5 Under (-120) (FD) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Giants +108 (FD) 1 unit win 2.08
Bears -4.5 (-108) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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5:45 ET Update
We have all but the west coast lineups, so it’s time to get to work. One small caveat being that there are some weather concerns in earlier games tonight. We’re all over the road dogs.
Zack Wheeler has been better than Jacob deGrom by ERA since the break (1.32 ERA, 2.31 FIP and 22.4 K-BB%). He’s a dog on the road, but against a team that has collapsed in Philadelphia. FanDuel currently has the line at +112. There is some weather concern for this game, so we’re going to make sure to list Wheeler (means he must start for bet to count), an option that FanDuel allows.
Interestingly, in Miami, the home team is hitting all the positive indicators with stagnant or slight reverse line movement. Erick Fedde has increased his strikeouts over his last two starts, where Trevor Richards has struggled, but Fedde’s 46.5 95+ mph EV is a full nine points higher than any other pitcher on the board. The Nationals have a significant lineup advantage, while both bullpens are bad. We’re getting a healthy price on the home team.
Another game we’re getting a nice price with the dog is in Milwaukee. Wade Miley has induced a lot of weak contact on the ground, while Anthony DeSclafani has been HR prone, but he is the better overall pitcher. Another interesting tidbit is that Miley has exhibited a reverse split this year. He has a 44.4 Hard% with a below average GB rate against LHBs. The Reds have some LHBs who can hit same-handed pitching.
Also, in Houston, we have another situation with a healthy favorite and some reverse line movement. Wade LeBlanc continues to be a useful pitcher, while Framber Valdez has managed contact well, but has just a 6.5 SwStr% with an ERA two runs below his estimators. LeBlanc has handled RHBs well this season and that should help him here.
Back with another update before 8 pm ET.
Mets +124 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.24
Marlins +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36
Reds +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56
Mariners +154 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.54
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Friday’s recap:
Marlins/Phillies 8.5 Over (100) (FD) 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Tigers +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56 W +1.56
Rays -127 (DK) 1.27 units to win 2.27 L – 1.27
Nationals -156 (FD) 1.56 units to win 2.56 L -1.56
Reds +182 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.82 L -1
Late add via Twitter
Giants +110 (DK) 1 unit to win 2.10 W +1.1
MLB
Day Total 3-3 -0.16
Grand Total 62-67-1 -1.83 units
Sides 33-40 -2.09 units
Totals 30-23-1 +4.65 units
Parlays 1-5 -4.39 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 3-1 +2 units
Spread 1-0 +1 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 2-4 -2.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 1-2 -1.2 units
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Tell me the Nats are going to get Scherzer five runs and I’ll take him all day at that price. They also left the bases loaded in the eighth. I believe that’s 0-2 on favorites above -150 this year here (not counting parlays).
Just as I was sweating out Detroit barely holding a three run ninth inning lead, the Reds were blowing their 2-0 lead in the seventh. The only three runs the Cubs would score were good enough. It’s lovely when you have serious reservations about backing a pitcher, he doesn’t allow a run and you still lose anyway. The Rays lost 2-1 in extra-innings. The over was an easy cash in Philadelphia. The Giant snapped an 11 game losing streak at home against the Rockies.
Last week was the worst week since starting this endeavor, or at least the worst day (Tuesday’s 0-6), which could not be recovered from despite showing a decent enough profit for the rest of the week.
In addition, not recorded here, the weekend was a disaster as well. College football was a major loser for the second week in a row, highlighted by dropping an over when the two teams had 56 points scored at the half (total was 70). The losing team scored on the first play of the game. The winning team had 62 points.
Sunday football resulted in a small loss after a rough start in the early games, but at least the major losers (Steelers, Bills and Rams) were really close and nothing to sweat over.
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New Jersey is now up to at least six online sportsbooks being offered, though the plan is to continue with just the three we’ve been using here (links above) and perhaps also Stars, which is currently only available via app.
Very quickly, the downside is that it’s only available via app (tablet or phone) and that the software is built right into the poker software, meaning that the poker bankroll and sports book bankroll are one and the same. Positives are what look like a very competitive rewards system (though most promos need to be specifically opted into), lines that compare well to FanDuel, including a number of Daily Odds Boost opportunities (similar to FanDuel, but even more) and the sheer number of prop bets available, some with Daily Odds Boosts as well.
This week, I’m going to continue to use the RotoGrinders NFL Daily Content Schedule to highlight content and tools that can be both daily fantasy and sports betting useful.
It’s only Monday, so the focus is still on the Monday night game, but perhaps most important to mention is the new re-designed LineupHQ. Key player and team statistics are already loaded for Week Three, including Football Outsiders DVOA, Production Premium, QBR (for QBs obviously), early potential weather information and various additional advanced stats for players and opponents.
Players and bettors can use Monday’s tools to either hone in on your Monday night play or get a jump on Week Three statistics.
Updates are coming later with some MNF thoughts, if not a play and a larger than normal 12 game MLB board for Monday night.