From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Wednesday, September 5th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Any further plays on west coast games will be posted via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall)
Reds/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 1.18 units to win 2.18
Twins/Astros 8.5 Under (-113) 1.12 units to win 2.12
Cubs/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2
Angels +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02
Cardinals -103 (SH) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Reds +170 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.7
Blue Jays +114 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.14
Mets/Dodgers 7 Over (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25
Cubs 100 (SH) 1 unit to win 2
Twins +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1
Giants +133 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.33
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7:50 ET Update
Following the money on some of the early dogs appears to be off to a great start. Why stop now? The money still seems to be flowing in Texas’s direction and I’m not sure if that’s still an over-reaction to Trout’s absence or not. Staying with my earlier play on the Angels, but the confidence is waning. The Cubs are seeing support at even money. The other two may be a bit harder to stomach as two lines that began very large haven’t moved at all in favor of the favorites in Houston or Colorado. If anything, they’ve moved slightly towards the dogs. I don’t object to the thought that Houston may be over-valued right now, though I still don’t know how that Minnesota lineup scores runs. Maybe they’ll only need a couple. I think the pitching matchup in San Francisco screams offense and the Rockies have more talent in their lineup, but I’d probably take Andrew Suarez over Antonio Senzatela.
Let’s go with the money once more at 8pm and make it a massive slate because we only have a few options tomorrow. This is still an experiment after all. Any further plays on west coast games will be posted via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall)
Cubs 100 (SH) 1 unit to win 2
Twins +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1
Giants +133 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.33
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6:45 ET Update*
One more total I like for the first slate of games set to tick off. While Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been awesome and are pitching in an extremely negative run environment, the Dodgers boast a deep and powerful lineup despite missing Machado tonight. Ryu’s ERA is about a run below his SIERA and the Mets have improved against LHP recently. Even if the Dodgers don’t get to Wheeler, which I don’t necessarily expect them to do, they will make him work. They forced deGrom out of the game after sixth and then had a field day with the bullpen.
Then there’s the money and line movement. It seems to be flowing all sorts of ways that are concerning tonight. On the same side as the public with the Cardinals and then some reverse line movement with the Reds and Blue Jays. I don’t understand the movement against Taillon at all, but it’s not really for me to understand. Smarter people apparently see value in this line and I’ve been doing well enough following the money and movement so far. I can understand the thought that there’s value in the Blue Jays as a home dog tonight. Looks like it’s going to be another large slate tonight.
This has become a pattern, but all three lines are superior for players at Sugar House. There will be another update before the next slate of games at 8pm.
Cardinals -103 (SH) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Reds +170 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.7
Blue Jays +114 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.14
Mets/Dodgers 7 Over (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25
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6PM ET Update
Mike Trout is out of the lineup and this line moved massively in the favor of the home team. The Angels started as a small favorite and are now a small dog.
I still like the Angels to win this game. Jaime Barria has shown signs of life recently and has a reverse split that the Rangers aren’t equipped to take advantage of. He’s the better pitcher. I had wanted to wait for the latest weather updates, but decides to jump on it at +102 as I see the line starting to creep back the other way after what may have been an over-reaction to the surprise Trout absence.
One more update before early lock.
Angels +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02
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5:15 ET Update
Continuing to roll with the totals. Two over-valued pitchers in this one, especially the road one. Both have platoon issues. Both lineups have the depth and power to take advantage of such shortcomings in a dangerous park.
Cubs/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2
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5PM ET Update
It’s been my contention for at least the month or so that the Houston offense is a bit over-valued. They may not even be entirely healthy. They play in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. On the other side, how the hell is this lineup supposed to score runs for the Twins?
Twins/Astros 8.5 Under (-113) 1.12 units to win 2.12
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3:30 ET Update Part II
No additional play here, but a thought: Tanner Roark and Miles Mikolas are contact managing workhorses, but backed by two of the five worst bullpens by FIP over the last month. The St Louis pen has just a 3.9 K-BB% as well. Perhaps a live betting play on an over once bullpens get involved?
3:30 ET Update
Looking to move on this one early as I see the line climbing. Hitter’s umpire, hitter’s pitcher, I expect the home team to do most of the damage in this one, but may only need a couple of runs from the visitors.
Reds/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 1.18 units to win 2.18
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Yesterday’s recap:
Angels/Rangers 9 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03 W +1
Twins/Astros 7.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11 W +1
Marlins +123 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.23 L – 1
Braves +116 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.16 L -1
Parlay: White Sox and Rockies +143 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.43 L -1
Twins +255 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.78 L -0.5
Angels +110 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.10 via Twitter:“https://twitter.com/FreelanceBBall/status/1037125375757832193” L -1
Day Total 2-5 -2.5 units
Grand Total 41-46-1 -2.02 units
Sides 20-24 +0.36 units
Totals 22-19-1 +1.01 units
Parlays 1-4 -3.39 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
In short, both totals, the first two bets placed won. Perhaps I should have called it quits there. Every additional bet, all sides, lost. Most weren’t even close. A four day win streak to close last week is now a two day losing streak and back in the red.
The longer version: when the opposition scores four in the first, you don’t really have to worry about much. Unfortunately, that happened to two of our dogs last night. Actually cashing under 7.5 runs in one of those games is a bit of a blessing. The Braves walked 10 Boston batters. Not going to win many games that way. I actually played Lucas Giolito as a favorite last night and was punished for that transgression. Late money move against Texas, not caught by the NJ sportsbooks would have been better left unseen. At least it was a low scoring game.
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Considering the results of the last two days, I don’t think anyone will mind if we take a break from talking about baseball with everyone’s minds already on football this week anyway.
We all know that RotoGrinders provides the best daily fantasy information in the business, but what about for those transitioning over to sports betting. What tools or articles might be really useful in that respect?
I’m fully immersed in baseball a lot longer than most people. It’s required by the job. When else is thinking football as early as August and definitely in September, I’m still too busy with baseball to even consider the NFL. I’ll see a few names and transactions, but I generally come into week one as a blank slate with not much more knowledge than one would have after the previous season’s Super Bowl.
In other words, if I’m going to play NFL games (and who are we kidding if I say I’m not), I need some help.
If you’re a premium subscriber and saw Aaron Hendrix’s new Information Overload article this week, either you’re still reading it or your brain started smoking from all the information presented (the title is not wrong).
One of the first things I noticed though, was that this was going to be a fantastic tool for sports betting too. Of all the incredibly interesting and useful information presented within the article, my immediate interest fell on the pace of game matchup section where Aaron specifically talks about totals. (As I’ve mentioned in a previous article, totals are the area where DFS and sports betting interests most intersect.) Pace of play is not a brand new discovery, but it’s something that hasn’t been very relevant in the minds of most daily fantasy players for more than a few years and something a lot of players probably still fail to exploit. I know it’s not really something I began incorporating in my own research until last year, but especially the way it’s situationally broken down, it can be a great statistic to use when handicapping totals.
There are a number of other stats and breakdowns in the article that sports bettors will find useful too, but since this piece is needed to be much shorter than that one, this is where I’ll leave off the discussion for now, while directing premium subscribers to go check it out if you have not already.
I’m going to spend the rest of the week here picking through information, mostly intended for daily fantasy greatness, that should be useful in handicapping NFL games too.