Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Contest: Friday, July 29th
Happy Friday, Grinders! The final slate of July is upon us with a very crowded top of the leaderboard. Yisman and WestCrook1 are tied atop with nine home runs but two players have eight home runs and a few are just behind with six or seven. A big night could capture the month’s victory and a nice prize. Let’s take a peek at Tuesday prior to picking the last few home runs for July.
Aaron Judge continues to punish me for getting off the train. Another home run from the big man paid off for a few people in the pool. The MLB provided 37 home runs but not many were popular selections. Byron Buxton tallied for a couple of people and that was about it. With a pretty large slate tonight, we might see some fireworks.
Reminder! Prizes were doubled for each month. Spread the word!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – 2 months of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt and hat
Third Place – 2 weeks of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Friday, July 29th MLB DFS Slate Notes
With thirteen games and some intriguing spots, we should see a bevy of bombs this evening. Coors Field is on the slate and welcoming the stout Dodgers’ lineup. The powerful Yankees host a left-handed Royals pitcher. The Blue Jays, always capable of blowing up a slate, host the Tigers and their not-so-fantastic pitching staff.
Let’s start with our HR/9 list first and focus on busier weather next:
Anibal Sanchez, WSN, 2.70
Bailey Falter, PHI, 2.45
Kyle Bradish, BAL, 2.14
James Kaprielian, OAK, 1.58
Robbie Ray, SEA, 1.50
We do have a couple of small samples atop this list but I don’t think we should be surprised that Anibal Sanchez isn’t a great pitcher any longer. Sanchez welcomes the potent Cardinals offense but the weather could be a concern: stay tuned. Bradish isn’t on the slate in Cincinnati.
The weather does have some trouble spots this evening. A listen into CrunchTime will be worthwhile if playing any volume of DFS or making plans to make any sizeable bets. Washington is on the list of places where thunderstorms could be a concern as is Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, Coors Field seems likely to be fine after a wet afternoon while the window for the Atlanta game will need to be checked before lock. We have not dealt much with storms recently. Be on guard before setting those lineups.
Okay, let’s see how I mess this up with Aaron Judge facing a lefty.
Friday, July 29th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Aaron Judge – OF – $6,200
Sike! Got you! I am not fading Judge again. Call me results-based, I don’t care. I am not closing the month with Judge crushing a lefty and not getting a piece. The Dodgers are very interesting but Coors Field isn’t necessarily a boost to home runs as it is to offense in general. I am closing the month with the unquestioned best power hitter in baseball in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
I am taking a bit of a risk here with the weather unknown but I am likely out of it for this month anyway. I am willing to take a chance with Judge clearly having two home runs in his arsenal. Judge is +220 to hit a home run and if you want to be really cute, +1900 for a two-home run night. those are FanDuel Sportsbook prices.
Promenade – Max Muncy – 3B – $3,900
The Dodgers are clearly tired of waiting for regression as Muncy continues to slip down the loaded lineup. Muncy’s peripheral numbers suggest the home runs are coming… they just haven’t.
Well, Chad Kuhl is just the right guy to get Muncy back on track in the thin air of Coors Field. Muncy does not lean fly balls, he tips over to the fly ball side against righties. Assuming he makes the lineup, I think Muncy is still a good choice despite his struggles.
FanDuel Sportsbook seems to agree a bit — pricing Muncy at +330 for a home run this evening.
Bleacher Seats – Brandon Belt – 1B – $3,200
Brandon Belt feels like a find this evening at this price. Marcus Stroman, the Cubs’ pitcher, surely limits fly balls. That said, how often do we get a crack at a hitter of this caliber in this tier?
Belt has returned from injury but returns with his 47.5 FB% and 39 Hard% against right-handed pitching. Fly ball hitters tend to do well against groundball pitchers. The park isn’t ideal but I think we can allow it in this range. Belt is just better than nearly every hitter in this tier.
We do get a bit of a boost on the price, here, with FanDuel pricing Belt at +540.
To all of the contestants in the mix, good luck! I apologize for the tardiness of this article. I look forward to awarding winners next week.
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Tuesday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn