Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Contest: Tuesday, May 17th
Happy Tuesday, Grinders! I hope that all of your are having a great start to your day and enjoyed a weekend filled with sport. Sports fans, bettors, and DFS enthusiasts will enjoy a pretty big week with plenty of baseball, playoff hockey and basketball, and the PGA Championship. Today, we are here for home runs. Friday did not disappoint. Will Tuesday bring forth as much power?
Yours truly enjoyed a great Friday night with all three of my selections hitting a home run in the Yankees-White Sox affair. SmoothLH20 matched my feat with three home runs of his own on Friday night to revive his May total. Your fearless — and not so humble — leader is in fact, this month’s leader. Will I be toppled?
Several players from Friday made the most of the 33 HR offered across a 13-game slate. Aaron Judge was the most-selected player in the upper tier with teammate Joey Gallo representing the most-selected lower tier option. Both players littered our leaderboard with home runs. The Yankees play in Baltimore, tonight. Do we stack again?
Batter up!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt
Third Place – One week of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Tuesday, May 17th MLB DFS Slate Notes
There are ten games on tonight’s DraftKings main slate. We have two domes (Blue Jays and Brewers). Coors Field is on tonight’s slate (Giants away).
The Mets game is not on the slate because they are playing a doubleheader but the night leg of the KC-CHW doubleheader is on the main slate.
Weather looks okay at the time of this writing. There is some potential for rain in Kansas City and Chicago (Wrigley) but nothing too alarming yet. The only other notable MLB weather nugget at the moment is some strong winds blowing out to right field in Fenway.
Can you guess which pitcher on tonight’s slate possesses the worst HR/9 thus far in 2022? If you guess Nathan Eovaldi, I want to get you on retainer for home run information. You would be right. Eovaldi is, so far, giving up north of 2 HR/9. That number is going to wane but given the infrequency of home runs, I am looking for any angle possible when picking home runs. Consequently, the Astros are second in the MLB with 49 team home runs.
The Yankees are first in the MLB in home runs with 52 early in 2022. The Bronx Bombers are living up to their monacre — especially over the last couple of weeks. A trip to Camden Yards should not hurt the Yankees’ lefties. Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, and Aaron Hicks could gain some interest against Spenser Watkins. That said, that shouldn’t mean we ignore Aaron Judge. Judge is potentially the hottest hitter in baseball — increasing the price tag for potential suitors next season.
Lucas Giolito brings the second worst HR/9 on the slate but buyer beware. Giolito’s HR/FB% is north of 19% where his normal is closer to 13% over his career. I am not so sure his HR/9 number stays close. A matchup with the Royals should help Giolito get on track even if Salvador Perez looms.
Coors Field brought 13 runs last night and is on tap for 11 runs this evening. Alex Cobb and Chad Kuhl haven’t given up that many long balls this season. I am not buying, though. Kuhl has steadily given up a HR per inning over his career and Cobb isn’t a very good pitcher. Both lineups can hit home runs, especially San Francisco. The Giants are 7th in the MLB in HR this season after finishing 2nd in 2021. I struggle to associate home run hitting with the Giants but their approach seems pretty straightforward. Pitching and bombs. We might consider a few lefties for our choices tonight.
Tuesday, May 17th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Mike Trout – OF – $5,500
To be honest, stacking three Yankees in Baltimore would be pretty easy this evening against Spenser Watkins. For the sake of differentiation, I am going to start different up top. When everyone is taking other hitters, why not just pick Mike Trout?
Trout squares off against Taylor Hearn this evening in Texas. Hearn boasts the highest hard-hit rate on the slate in 2022. That said, let’s not waste our time. Mike Trout does not require any level of explanation. The flow chart for “Should I pick Mike Trout to hit a HR?” is pretty simple. One question.
“Is Mike Trout playing?” If yes, we can take him. No questions asked.
Trout is +285 on DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard this evening.
Promenade – Joc Pederson – OF – $3,900
If you follow me on Twitter, you know that Joc Pederson made me a very happy man on Sunday night. Tonight, in Coors Field on the road, sign me up.
Joc Jams is exactly what this contest is all about. All we want is home run potential. OBP, wRC+, BB%, etc… etc… No thanks! Give me the raw power. With a 26.9% HR/FB rate, Joc sells out. His hard hit rate is in the top 20 in the league in 2022 (Min. PA > 40). Against a righty, on the road, in Coors Field… please sign me up. Actually, sign me up. Make me several RotoGrinders’ burner accounts. Then, sign me up again and again.
Joc is +290 to hit a HR on FanDuel. We are starting to develop a nice, little HR parlay, here.
Bleacher Seats – Joey Gallo – OF – $3,200
You didn’t think I was going to go into tonight without any Yankees did you? Spenser Watkins has not shown much thus far for the Orioles. The Yankees bring a run total north of five for a reason.
While Coors Field is on the slate, I still expect the Yankees to soak up plenty of ownership — especially on DraftKings. With the prices of some bats very low, you can make stacks work. For our contest, I also anticipate Gallo will be popular because, well, he should be. The matchup, the ballpark, the pedigree. All signs point towards a Joey Gallo home run.
Gallo feels like a very logical play for FanDuel’s Tuesday night HR promotion. Bet $25 on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in free bets for every HR hit in the game whether you win or lose. At +350, he is going to be my pick for this promotion tonight.
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Friday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn