Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Predictions: Tuesday, April 19th
Friday’s 11-game slate brought 17 home runs for the picking. The Yankees failed again in Baltimore but a few stars did not disappoint. The cooler temperatures across the league are surely keeping the home run totals low. As temperatures warm up, MLB players should start teeing off. Will Tuesday night start this trend?
I don’t want to brag, but… Shohei Ohtani went yard twice on Friday night. Are you not entertained? BigPod joined the party and collected two home runs while a handful of players were able to gain a home run with Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. A welcome to a few of the first-time home run pickers from Friday night. I hope we can add to that list tonight with a loaded Tuesday MLB slate.
Batter up!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt
Third Place – One week of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Tuesday, April 19th MLB DFS Slate Notes
Coors Field remains on the docket after failing miserably on Monday night. Certainly, DFS players that pulled off a fade were very pleased as rain limited the options on the slate. Concentrated Coors ownership that fails is great for contrarians. Tonight, the quality of pitching is better but the implied total is 11.5 at the time of this writing.
The Blue Jays travel to Boston with plenty of righty power to threaten the Green Monster. Nathan Eovaldi, though, only surrendered 30.6% fly balls against righties last season. With only 48-degree temperatures projected for tonight, Toronto might be an avoid situation, tonight.
The Twins are inexplicably priced as if Cy Young opposes them this evening. Seven players from our projected lineup fall in the Bleacher Seats range for this article. Jorge Polanco is only $3,600. Minnesota will be popular tonight on DraftKings. Will they make for popular home run calls?
The wind is blowing in at Wrigley field and it is in the forties. No thanks.
At the time of this writing, only two of tonight’s eleven games features an implied total of 9 or better. We have not quite reached the warmer months, yet, and suppressed power is very likely.
Tuesday, April 19th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Trevor Story – 2B – $5,400
Yusei Kikuchi was targeted in my first article with a Bronx Bomber. Despite the lack of bombs, I am willing to go back to the well against a southpaw in Fenway that yielded 1.7 HR/9 to RHH in 2021.
Trevor Story has yet to go long this season. A move from Coors Field often is of detriment to a hitter’s offensive production. While that might pan out, Fenway Park is an excellent park for right-handed flyball hitters. With a 47.5% FB rate in 2021 against lefties and an ISO north of .300, Story is certainly one of our better options on tonight’s slate.
Toronto offers a few premium options, as well, but I like attacking Kikuchi. This game seems like a great pivot for DFS contests as a pivot off of Coors Field. With a +440 price for a home run at FanDuel Sportsbook, I am going to begin my Story with Trevor’s first home run.
Promenade – Manny Machado – OF – $4,600
The Promenade seats will be very crowded tonight with options as the upper tier lacks a little bit this evening. For that reason, we probably feel pretty safe picking anyone and avoiding any level of game theory conversation. Manny Machado, fresh off of a home run on Monday night, will be our pick this evening.
Machado draws a matchup with Reiver Sanmartin. Admittedly, I didn’t follow much MLB last season. Therefore, I could not tell you much about Reiver Sanmartin. He did just throw five scoreless innings against the Dodgers, but nothing I see leaves me concerned about the plight of the Fathers, tonight.
Machado was definitely uneven in 2021 but did hit the ball in the air against left-handed pitching at a 44% clip. With an EVAvg north of 89 MPH, I am pretty comfortable adding Machado to my home run card this evening. You can grab Machado at +370 on FanDuel this evening.
Bleacher Seats – Max Kepler – OF – $2,900
So far, I am 0-2 with my cheap seats selections much like my home run hunting peers. This tier is just so, so, so tricky. Normally, players are priced down with poor lineup spots and at-bats are tough to come by. If they are in a platoon situation, they are always at risk for being pinch hit for.
That said, I feel pretty good about tonight’s Bleacher Creature. Max Kepler just sneaks into the tier at $2,900 on DraftKings. The entire Minnesota stack is free tonight in Kansas City against Carlos Hernandez. Minnesota bats will likely get traction as a vehicle for fitting in some pitching with Coors Field bats.
For me, Kepler will always make sense as a cheap power option against right-handed pitching. He will hit in the middle of the order. Kepler led this year’s iteration of the Twins with better than 44% fly balls last season against RHP. Combine that with a 42.9% hard-hit rate and Kepler feels like a bargain at this price.
With a +660 price for a home run tonight on FanDuel, you can put together quite the three-homer parlay. The odds for this parlay are +19188. $10 can win me $1,918.88. I am in for a little bit of fun on Tuesday night.
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Friday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.