MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, August 10th
The second half of the 2021 MLB season has been wild, between a plethora of high-profile trades and a bevy of ever-exciting playoff races. For many clubs, yesterday was one of the first chances to sit down and catch their collective breaths. Just five MLB games were scheduled Monday, one of which was a makeup of a rainout (Indians-Reds). One of those five games, Brewers-Cubs, got rained out and postponed to today.
So, we ended up with a four-game Monday slate, with no MLB betting action on the aforementioned Battle of Ohio (good thing, because the Tribe pulled off a major upset). Overall, our Monday bets did just meh on the quiet day. We crushed our stone-cold lock—White Sox over Twins—as the South Siders destroyed Minnesota 11-1. We whiffed when we took the UNDER on the 7.5-run total in the Padres-Marlins game, which ended 8-3 after San Diego turned a 4-1 lead in the eighth into an 8-3 runaway. We shall await the results of our third Bet of the Day, today’s Indians-Reds makeup, to see if Cincy rewards us with another 2-1 column.
At best, our Bets of the Day from Monday will leave us with a season-long record of 49-34. At worst, we are at 48-35. Life is good, and now we have a 17-game slate on Tuesday. Let’s get right back out there and make some money.
MLB Betting Picks, Predictions — August 10th
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs. Aaron Nola
Pick: Dodgers -165
Even if I didn’t like the bet here, you know I’d have to incorporate something from this game. The reigning champions—with their newly-acquired multiple Cy Young winner—travel cross-country to Philly, to take on one of the hottest clubs in baseball? Sign me up. The Dodgers at -165, with Max Scherzer and his 9-4 record, 2.75 ERA, and 0.890 WHIP? Sign me up as quickly as possible.
Read more: The Case for Betting Phillies & Under
Scherzer has been no stranger to the Phillies over the years, considering he played in their division as a Washington National for six and a half seasons. Unsurprisingly, the eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner has fared fantastically against them.
In three starts against Philly this season (all at Citizens Bank Park), Scherzer is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA, 0.911 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. Phillies have collectively slashed .161/.268/.306 against him across those outings. His career marks against Philly: 14-4, 2.55 ERA, 0.991 WHIP, 11.3 K/9. That’s filthier than my two-year old daughter at a party with a slip-and-slide.
Now Scherzer gets to face Philly as a member of the Dodgers, who feature a vastly superior offense than Washington. And while LA has scuffled a bit since the All-Star Game—with an 11-10 record—the Dodgers have scored 49 runs in their past eight games, and plated at least five runs in seven of their last 10. Superstar shortstop Trea Turner, acquired in the Scherzer deal, has provided quite a jolt in the already-stellar LA lineup. It may not translate to box scores yet, but Turner’s effort and energy seems contagious in at-bats, on the basepaths, and on defense.
Phillies ace Aaron Nola could have some trouble with Turner and the rest of this star-studded ballclub, including Seager, Turner, Pujols, Pollock, Muncy, and Taylor. Hell, even Cody Bellinger has been looking more like himself as of late. And two-time MVP Mookie Betts, who has been battling a hip injury, should return Tuesday.
Good luck, Aaron. The 28-year old veteran has had an up-and-down season, coming in today with a 7-6 record, 4.49 ERA, and 1.164 WHIP. Nola will dazzle will a seven-inning shutout one outing, or come within an out of a complete game, and then give up seven earned runs or two dingers the next time out. He has 13 starts in which he’s surrendered three runs or fewer, but he has allowed an average of 4.77 runs across the other nine starts.
One of those nine starts was his last time out in Washington, against the post-deadline Nats. He allowed five earned runs on five hits (and three walks), but the Phillies still eked out a 7-6 victory. Don’t expect Philly to plate seven runs and win a barn-burner against Scherzer, with or without MVP candidate Bryce Harper’s heroics. I’m making the Dodgers my No. 1 Bet of the Day.
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Nestor Cortes vs. Daniel Lynch
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100)
It’s tough to pick a road team on the run line, but that +100 looks exponentially more appealing than the Yankees’ -150 moneyline. And hey, it’s the Royals! They have resigned themselves to stinking the rest of the season, while the Yankees are clearly going for it all.
Trade deadline deals make a difference, as do returns from injury. Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo have already made impacts in the heart of the Yankees’ order, and first baseman Luke Voit hit a two-run homer in his second game back from the IL Tuesday. After beating Kansas City 8-6 yesterday, New York has now won six of its last seven games, and 11 of its last 14.
The Yanks have scored 44 runs in their past seven games, the third-best scoring MLB team in the past week. In that span, they have collectively slashed .284/.353/.444. Kansas City’s numbers during the past week? Just 29 homers, and a .218/.279/.319 slash line.
The Royals are overmatched on the mound, too. Pinstriped pitchers have collected an awesome 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over the past week, with 73 strikeouts in 67 innings. Kansas City’s team ERA in that span is 4.21, its WHIP sits at 1.35, and it has fewer strikeouts than innings pitched.
Making matters worse for KC, Daniel Lynch has not looked as impressive as Nestor Cortes this season. Cortes has put together two consecutive strong starts, allowing two or fewer runs over five innings in both. The rookie Lynch has just six starts under his professional belt, and it’s been a bit of a roller coaster—17 runs in 14 innings across four starts, one run in 13 innings across the other two. This will mark Lynch’s first start against the Bronx Bombers, and I think he’ll bomb. New York is 47-27 in night games, and it’s not about to slow down for the Royals.
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs. Kolby Allard
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+105)
If all I cared about was having a massively lopsided win-loss record on straight up bets, I’d pick three different teams between -200 and -250 every day. But at RotoGrinders, we also care about value, and getting the most bang for your buck. So, we make picks like the Mariners -1.5 at home against the Rangers. Sometimes, you gotta risk it for the biscuit.
The rookie Gilbert has looked more and more comfortable on the mound as his debut season progresses, and he collected three wins in July. Seattle has won 12 of his last 13 starts, and the last four wins were by an average margin of three runs per game. That includes a 9-5 win over Texas on July 30, for which he collected his fifth career win. Across two meetings with the Rangers, Gilbert has allowed six runs on 11 hits in 11.1 innings, while striking out 12 and walking just three.
Allard, who is a little over three months younger than Gilbert yet three years more experienced, has not fared as well in the second half of the season. The Texas lefty is 2-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.212 WHIP, and he’s given up 15 dingers on the year. Since July 11, he has surrendered 24 runs (and eight homers) in five starts (24.1 IP). My money’s on Logan Lucky, whose split stats just keep getting better with time.
Image Credit: Imagn