MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 12)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Hit both picks last week, thanks to a gift from Kevin Cash. Zack Littell was cruising against Colorado until Cash yanked him after 5 innings at just 69 pitches. Shoutout Cash! The Rockies immediately scored 3 runs in the 6th inning, of course.
Logan Gilbert had an uneven outing, but Freddy Peralta fired 5 scoreless innings before falling apart in the 6th. So that first 5 innings under came through pretty comfortably. Going right back to the Mariners today.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 2-0
- Prop Picks: 1-1
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-118 on FanDuel)
This is a matchup between two pitchers who have made some super interesting changes so far this season. Would expect them to hold these offenses in check tonight.
Bryce Miller will have the tougher task, facing a Cubs lineup that’s gotten off to a great start. Miller had an obvious flaw last season, relying too much on his fastball. He’s clearly found a secondary pitch to complement the heater this season. Miller’s splitter has been a phenomenal pitch, racking up 8 strikeouts and a silly 52.2% whiff rate through 2 starts. That whiff rate is unsustainable, but the pitch is a legitimate weapon. Throw in a solid slider, and Miller suddenly has a viable arsenal. He’s top 10 in swinging strike rate and CSW% so far.
Seattle’s offense has been a nightmare. They’re 26th in scoring and 28th in F5 runs per game. They prioritized making more contact by getting rid of Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, but they have become punchless. Oh, and they’re still striking out a ton.
Jordan Wicks had a decent rookie season, but he just couldn’t generate strikeouts (16.3% K%). He’s solved that problem through 2 starts, largely due to an improved fastball. Wicks’ heater was terrible in 2023, allowing a .368 BA and .711 SLG. He’s increased the ride on it this season, limiting the vertical drop by 2.3 inches. It went from slightly below average to well above average in ride, and it’s racked up a 36.7% whiff rate. Ride is the key to a good fastball. A solid 4-seamer makes a great pairing with Wicks’ good changeup.
Carlos Carrasco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-152 on FanDuel)
Carrasco picked up 6 Ks in just 3 IP last time out, but that was against the extremely strikeout-heavy Twins. He had another excellent matchup in his first start, striking out 3 against the Athletics. This is a much tougher spot, and his arsenal is lacking at this stage of his career.
The 37-year-old Carrasco has lost 2.6 MPH on his fastball, and he’s actually throwing his changeup more than any other pitch this season. The changeup has generated plenty of whiffs, but it’s not a pitch we typically see as the centerpiece of an arsenal. It normally needs to work off of the fastball. Carrasco’s heater was punished last season, allowing a .358 BA and a .621 SLG. His slider and sinker graded out even worse than the fastball in terms of run value.
The Yankees projected lineup has a modest 21.8% K% vs. RHP since the start of last season. In 401 plate appearances that ended with a changeup in that span, this lineup had a 21.7% K%.
Two hitters stand out as vulnerable to the changeup: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Carrasco is down to just one good pitch, and if generating strikeouts is going to come down to having success with it against Judge and Stanton, I’m gravitating toward the under.
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