MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 19)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Another 2-0 day last week. Jordan Wicks made things interesting, but Bryce Miller had another strong start, so we got there on the first 5 innings bet. Carlos Carrasco didn’t make things interesting, managing just 2 Ks. Easy win there.
Going with another first 5 innings bet today. I prefer targeting the first 5 innings lines instead of the full game lines because of the higher degree of certainty. We know the lineup and the pitching matchups. We don’t have to worry about pinch-hitters and bullpen usage and all of that nonsense. Unless it’s a situation with weather or a particularly strong/weak bullpen, I’m going to stick to the first 5 innings.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 3-0
- Prop Picks: 2-1
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-125 on BetMGM)
It’s going to be quite chilly in Minnesota today, plus we get a nice pitching matchup against a pair of weak offenses.
Joe Ryan has been phenomenal to start the season, with a massive 34.3% K% and a tiny 2.9% BB%. His 2.60 ERA is supported by a pristine 2.15 xERA. Ryan has piled up 19 strikeouts over his last 2 starts, including a 12-strikeout gem against this Tigers team last time out.
Jack Flaherty has gone 6+ innings in every start. He solved some of the control issues that plagued him in recent years (career-best 3.8% BB% this season). He gave up 6 ER against Oakland, but it was a ton of soft contact that found holes. Flaherty’s hard-hit rate was just 33% in that start, and 7 of the 9 hits he gave up were singles. Those outings happen.
Both of these offenses rank 21st or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP this season. While Minnesota gets a softer matchup, they’ve been even worse on offense. The Twins’ 80 wRC+ against RHP is ahead of only the Marlins and White Sox. Not the type of company you want to be in.
Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-158 on FanDuel)
Verlander will make his season debut on Friday after a delayed start to the season. He was basically slowed by being old, mentioning that he just needed more time to ramp up heading into the year. This feels a strikeout or two too high given the matchup and the circumstances around his late start.
The now 41-year-old finally showed signs of age in 2023, at least in the strikeout department. Verlander is coming off a season with his worst K% (21.5%) since 2015. He had a sub-10% swinging-strike rate for the first time since 2014.
Washington had the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate vs. RHP last season. They added two strikeout-prone bats in Joey Gallo and Jesse Winker, but they still rank bottom 10 in Ks against RHP. Winker has actually cut his K% way down from 2023 (25.9% to 17.6%), much closer to his career average (17.9%).
Between the matchup and potential workload limitations, it’s a tough spot for Verlander to rack up Ks.
Image Credit: Getty Images