MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, September 6th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks last week. Ben Lively fell apart in the 5th inning, getting bombed for 6 ERs after cruising through 4 scoreless innings. Bailey Falter wasn’t that good on the other side either. Jon Gray struggled again, then hit the IL again. His season is over.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 14-8-1
- Prop Picks: 13-10
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets First 3 Innings Under 2.5 (-125 on DraftKings)
I’m always intrigued by openers. There are plenty of talented pitchers who don’t have the stamina to be a regular starter but are too good for a 1-inning relief role. This is a nice spot to back one of those arms.
Fernando Cruz is doing some interesting stuff right now. He’s been an effective opener for his last two appearances, piling up 11 Ks in 5 IP while giving up just 1 ER. Cruz has a 4.99 ERA on the season, but he’s been unlucky. His BABIP is .336, his LOB% is 67.9% and his HR/FB% is 15.6%. It’s no surprise his xFIP is 2.86 and his SIERA is 2.92. Cruz gets hit hard at times, but he’s also 99th percentile in K% and whiff rate. The Mets have a solid lineup, though it’s top heavy and prone to strikeouts (26.3% K% vs. RHP last 30 days).
Sean Manaea has tossed quality starts in 6 of his last 7 appearances. He’s trimmed his ERA to 3.35, and while his ERA estimators are a bit higher, they’re still right around 4.00. Manaea gets an excellent matchup, as Cincinnati ranks 25th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties since the start of July. The Reds might trot an all right-handed lineup out there, which shouldn’t be a problem for Manaea. He’s held righties to a .124 ISO and a .269 wOBA this season.
Cruz has thrown 42 pitches in both of his opener appearances, so he’ll likely be capped at around 3 innings here. I don’t want to let Cincinnati’s weak bullpen get involved, so I’m keeping this bet to the first 3 innings.
Luis Gil Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 on BetMGM)
Heads up, this is for the early game. It starts at 2:20 PM ET. Looking for that early W on a Friday.
There are several factors working against Gil. It’ll be his first appearance since hitting the IL with a back strain. He struggled mightily in August, posting a 5.25 ERA with a 12:13 K:BB over 3 starts. The matchups were about as good as possible (Angels, White Sox, Guardians), but Gil’s control problems limited him to 12 IP. With the Yankees having Thursday off, their bullpen is well rested. Three of their high leverage arms (Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jake Cousins) haven’t pitched since Tuesday, while Luke Weaver has been off since Monday.
And there’s the looming Nestor Cortes. Manager Aaron Boone said Cortes will piggyback one of the games in this series against the Cubs, but he didn’t say which one. Clarke Schmidt will be returning from a lengthy IL stint on Saturday, so he’s certainly a candidate to tag-team the start with Cortes. There’s still a chance Cortes is instead paired with Gil considering his mounting innings this season. Gil has topped out at 108.2 IP as a professional, and that was back in 2021. Injuries have limited him to just 29.2 IP over the past two seasons. Gil has blown past his career high this season with 128.1 IP. With a postseason run on the horizon, New York will need to save some bullets for October.
It’s also a challenging matchup. Chicago has been one of the best offenses in baseball recently, especially against righties. They’re 2nd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past 30 days vs. RHP. The Cubs are making a ton of contact in that span, striking out at the 4th lowest rate. They’re also walking at the 2nd highest rate, which could be an issue for Gil.
Gil has plenty of strikeout ability, but we have several outs.
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