MLB Daily Grind Down: April 12th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-12 18:32:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Tonight is a big night in the MLB. Most of the players will not know that each at bat will count a little more, each homerun will be that much more important, each strikeout will be much more meaningful and every out will act like ticks on a game clock slowly counting down to the end of our game.

There is a wide array of action all over the industry, too many to list, but none are bigger than DraftKings’ 150K end to their Hit Parade called The Walk-Off. Less than 2 weeks into the season and already there will be a 50k winner. Overlay is hard to predict but it looks like this thing is headed to some so get your entry into it.

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
SFG BvP		SFG vs R		CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• All I can say about this game is why could it not have been a night game. Matt Cain looks likely to destroy the dismal Cubs. He would not have been the only ace going but you have to love this matchup. With only one day game, I doubt there are any early start GPPs but if he is available to you then play him.

Batters

• Much like my nipples, this game is not very useful. If you want to play early start H2Hs then I will say both pitchers are throwing well. The giants bats have been hot lately and are batting .333 as a team vs Charlie. If the wind is blowing out then load the heart of the order.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CHW BvP		CHW vs R		CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The ou line is set at 8 with CLE the strong favorites at -150. Justin Masterson gets the call after two strong outings in which he pitched 13 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, and 13 Ks. The Ks are a little higher than he has posted over the last couple of years but his K/9 ratio was over 8 in his time with BOS and that was not that long ago for the 28 year old. He was 3 points of ERA better at home than on the road last year and his home. The current White Soxs are batting .240 vs. him. Target

• Jose Quintana got pummeled in his first outing. When SEA team batting .220 on the season can get a pitcher for 6 R in 4 innings, there is cause for concern. He posted a pour K/9 rate over his 22 starts last year and although he was a better pitcher on the road his K/9 ratio actually dropped in those starts. He is a pitcher slated to lose with little upside Avoid

Batters

• CLE has not seen Quintana very much. I keep waiting for Swisher bat to get hot. He is 1-2 vs. Jose. Mark Reynolds has his power stroke working so he is an option. I can see the tribe getting to the young lefty. There is just not a lot of data to tell me who those hitters will be and I am trying to avoid simply giving you a guess.

• Adam Dunn has destroy Masterson in the past. He holds a .360 BAA and a .993 OPS. He is only batting .182 on the season so he could be a sneaky cheap play that gets you huge returns. Tyler Flowers is also 2-4 vs. Masterson and Conor Cillaspie has made the most of his time batting .438 in 16 AB. Alex Rios has been on fire. I am the type of guy that ignores all other data if a guy is in the zone.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CIN BvP		CIN vs R		PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has the OU set at 7 and the game listed as a pick’em. With a 3.10 home ERA and 8.01 K/9 from a year ago, I give the edge to A.J. Burnett. A.J. Burnett has gone for a 3.27 ERA with 19k in 11 IP. That is a 15.55 K/9! In fairness, he did give up 3 ER in his last start lasting only 5.1 IP. The current Reds are batting only .210 vs. him, though. The low OU, K/9, and the home ERA are enough for me to say…. Target

• Mike Leake did not look all that great in his first outing. His numbers are pretty good if you think about him as a fifth starter but the are pretty bad in the world of daily fantasy. His high ERA and hoo-hum K/9 make him only useful as a matchup play. Today, he draws agreat matchup in PIT team that has a league’s worst team average of .153 with 89 Ks in 8 games. That is 11 per. He pitched well on the road last year with a 3.65 ERA and his K/9 should get a boost so I say….. Target

*Batters

• The Pirates as a team have a .295 BAA vs. Leake. Jose Tabata, Niel Walker, and Russell Martin, and Garrett Jones all have great individual stats as well. As bad as the team as batting, I can only recommend Garrett Jones out of the bunch because he is swinging the bat okay at .250 and has 2 HR upside. I remember a guy two years ago winning a DFBC qualifier off a Padres stack when they were equally bad. This could be the day they turn it around or another 11 K and 4 hit day.

• Joey Votty, Zack Cozart, and Brandon Phillips all have nice BvPs vs. Burnett. I like the lefty/righty matchup of Votto the best. Shin Choo-Choo is another lefty and all though his BvPs are poor is swinging the bat very nice right now so I think he is in play as well. Jay Bruce also has the lefty/righty matchup and has the power to go yard at anytime.

Baltimore at NY Yankees

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
BAL BvP		BAL vs R		NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has the ou line set at 8.5 with NYY the strong favorites at -150. CC Sabathia takes the hill for NYY after a strong outing with 0 ER in 7 IP with 5 K. Sabathia was absolutely lights out at home a year ago with a 2.69 home ERA. The lack of strikeouts in his first two starts scares me a little but his k/9 ratio a year ago was 8.82. Anytime, he takes the mound at home you have to think….. Target

• Miguel Gonzalez had a good first outing and continues to maintain that career 3.22 ERA that many said was an anomaly. His medicore K/9 of 5.68 from a year ago give him very limited upside. He was a much better pitcher on the road last year. His road ERA was 2.74 and his ERA in Yankee Stadium was a 2.63 in 2 starts. However, I do not trust the righty vs. this strong left-handed team batting .281 with 15 HR on the season. Avoid

Batters

• The Yankees do not have all that much BvP data. I am starting to sound like a broken record but I like their lefties of Robinson Cano, Travis Hafner, Brett Gardner and the more sneaky plays of Lyle Overbay and Ichiro Suzuki. Kevein Youkilis and Vernon Wells are also swinging a hot bat so both are in play. Miguel Gonzalez has held the team to a .200 BAA so I do not expect an explosion but I think they get to him for 4-6 runs today.

• Adam Jones has owned Sabathia in his career. He has a .341 BAA with 3 HR in 41 AB. J.J. Hardy is also batting .429 vs. him. Alexi Casilla who has been seeing time lately sports a .571 BAA in 21 AB, cheap option. I would avoid both Chris Davis and Nick Markakis in this one. Their BvPs are not good and the lefty/lefty matchup scares me.

Atlanta at Washington

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
ATL BvP		ATL vs L		WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas like this to be another low scoring game and the OU line is placed at 8 with WAS favored at -135. Ross Detwiler is slated to get the win. He gave up 0 ER in 6 IP in his first outing. He looks like a solid play today against an injured ATL. The Lefties ERA was 2.59 at home a year ago. His K/9 of 5.75 limit his upside and he had just 1 K in his first start so he is only useful in a multiple pitcher format for today. Target

• Teheran got bombarded by the Cubs in his first outing. He hs not looked all that sharp the last couple of years in the minors. He has huge upside for Ks if he can develop but right now he looks like a pitcher that is going to experience a season full of growing pains. Avoid

Batters

• Teheran’s problem has always been that he gives up too many HRs. He gave up 2 to the Cubs in his first start. I like all of the WAS big hitters today but even a guy like Danny Espinosa could take this guy yard. Bryce Harper and Jason Werth look in line to have nice days and I like “Denard Span(player-profile)”:/players/Denard_Span-10541’s righty/lefty matchup. He could get his first HR of the season today.

• B.J. Upton sports a .400 BAA vs. Detwiler and Jason Heyward has a surprising .357 BAA vs. him since he normally does not hit left-handers all that well. Even though his BvPs do not support it, you have to like a hot Justin Upton facing a lefty today. The young SS Andrelton Simmons is 2-6 vs. Detwiler with a HR. Do not expect to many runs but any of these guys could have a nice evening.

Continue Reading Part Two of Today’s MLB Grind Down Article Here