MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, July 4th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-04 05:52:22

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

4th of July brings with it Beer, Outdoor Grilling and Fireworks. The Daily Fantasy Sites have Fireworks of their own today as there are many of great oversized GPPs exploding across the industry. Me personally, I am not going to play because I want to be able to enjoy time with my friends and not be checking my scores every 10 minutes. Here is today’s Patriotic edition of the Daily Grind Down.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Milwaukee vs. Washington

6:05 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.260	0.723	19.40%	0.56		0.235	0.670	21.80%	0.50
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.269	0.735	21.30%	0.43		0.241	0.688	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Lohse – RHP					Detwiler – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	3.69	5.56	8.21		1.49	4.13	4.98	6.59
LAST 14 DAYS	1.23	2.77	5.54	10.50		1.76	7.98	6.97	4.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs L		MIL BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – WAS -150

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home It is important not to get too high on young pitcher after 1 start. It is also important not to get too low on them as well. Taylor Jordan did not make it 5 IP in his first start but he also only gave up 1 ER and induced 10 ground ball outs. He is the huge favorite today and while I would not expect a GPP winning performance out of him, you can ride his cheap salary on a multiple pitcher site because I think he qualifies for the win and gets it today. MIL is batting .247 on the road, .254 versus right-handers, and .264 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Donovan Hand made it 5 IP in his last start, which was pure luck because he only threw 64 pitches. He will not make it 5 today against this resurgent WAS offense. WAS is batting .261 at home, .245 versus right-handers, and .274 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 1

Batter Grind Down

• Home Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Denard Span are all batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching. Ian Desmon, Jason Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are all hot. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away This MIL team without Ryan Braun is looking like WAS without Bryce Harper. Jean Segura, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Gomez are all batting over .300 versus right-handers. Juan Francisco has been hot with 26 fp over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 2

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Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh

7:05 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.255	0.716	19.60%	0.56		0.242	0.703	22.50%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.259	0.716	18.90%	0.43		0.231	0.683	23.40%	0.44
SP STATS	Lannan – LHP					Gomez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.35	4.83	4.62	5.70		1.14	2.76	5.14	5.38
LAST 14 DAYS	1.41	3.71	4.76	7.67		1.00	0.00	9.00	10.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs R		PHI BvP			PIT vs L		PIT BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – PIT -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I know Pit has been hot and the PHI have a poor win/lose total but what makes Gerrit Cole the favorite in this game in Las Vegas’s eyes. His first 4 starts have been 3rd starter worthy and his K totals are below average. PHI is batting .259 on the road, .258 versus right-handers, and .300 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Cole Hamels is on pace to lose over 20 games but he has not been that bad on the year. He has given up a few too many HRs but his K/9 totals are there at 1 K per IP and he has been just a few unlucky breaks away from posting numbers similar to his career averages. PIT is a pitcher park, unlike PHI, ans I think we see a bounce back game from the veteran whose stuff is still there. PIT is batting .244 at home, .231 versus left-handers, and .243 over the last 7 days, RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home “Andrew McCutchen(player-profile)”:/players/Andrew_McCutchen-10517’s home and lefty splits are outstanding and he is starting to heat up again. Gaby Sanchez is 9-30 with 2 HRs versus Hamels. Clint Barmes is 4-8 with 3 XBH if you can stomach the play. RG Stack Rating

• Away Left-handers are batting .295 versus Cole. Chase Utley and Domonic Brown have been hot very PHI. You do the math. RG Stack Rating 5

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Detroit vs. Toronto

7:07 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.281	0.779	16.50%	0.64		0.250	0.731	19.10%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.280	0.771	16.20%	0.51		0.250	0.751	19.50%	0.52
SP STATS	Scherzer – RHP					Johnson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.90	3.10	10.71	15.69		1.60	5.21	9.17	8.12
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	2.70	11.25	17.00		1.54	4.86	11.11	10.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – DET -140

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I know DET is not the same on the road as they are at home but do I really need to tell you to avoid Esmil Rogers today? He held BOS to 0 ER in 6 IP with 6 Ks in his last starts but 16 fp seems to be the ceiling for this long reliever. I m not sold on his success and he is facing one of the best pitcher in baseball. DET is batting .258 on the road, .280 versus right-handers, and .252 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

• Away Everyone was hating on Justin Verlander for a minute but he his troubles in may subsided in June and he seems back to being the dominant pitcher that we expect. He has been better this year on the road than at home and should get the win against his weak opponent on the mound. TOR is batting .261 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .239 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jose Bautista and Adam Lind have the best BvPs versus Verlander. I am fading all of TOR because I think this is a bounce back game for JV but that is a RGEDP (rotogrinders expert disclaimer pick) RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Miguel Cabrera has been super hot with 40.75 fp over the last week. He has a back problem which could make him a late scratch. Late scratches are the death of fantasy rosters so avoid. Prince Fielder is 4-10 with 1 HR versus Rogers but everyone from DET is always playable because of their offense. RG Stack Rating 5

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Baltimore vs. Chicago White Sox

7:10 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.775	17.80%	0.66		0.245	0.679	20.60%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.252	0.724	18.50%	0.46		0.250	0.689	20.40%	0.41
SP STATS	Feldman – RHP					Santiago – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.14	3.46	6.63	10.07		1.35	3.59	9.38	6.11
LAST 14 DAYS	1.44	6.35	5.68	7.05		1.51	5.17	10.66	9.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			CHW vs R		CHW BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – BAL -107

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home The first strike against Jose Quintana is that he does not record enough Ks. The second strike against him is that he plays for CHW who has been struggling on the year. The third strike is that he is facing a BAL team 2nd in the league in runs scored and who owns a .471 BAA as a team versus him. You ‘re Out!!!!! BAL is batting .277 on the road, .250 versus left-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

• Away I am halfway tempted to take Zach Britton on a multiple pitcher site versus this struggling CHW team. He has limited upside but his team seems a lock to score enough runs to get him the win and CHW does not look like they could record a win off of the Bad News Bears right now even before they added that punk with opposite field power. CHW is batting .240 at home, .230 versus left-handers and .272 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home De Aza, Ramirez, Viciedo and Rios all have great batting averages versus left-handers. De Aza and Keppinger have been hot. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Everyone is playable. I love a hot Chris Davis who hit an HR versus a left-hander last night. Right-handed bats of Wieters, Hardy, Machado, and Jones are worth a look. RG Stack Rating 6

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Miami vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	Miami – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.233	0.625	18.80%	0.43		0.245	0.728	23.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.223	0.633	21.30%	0.34		0.249	0.740	23.60%	0.49
SP STATS	Nolasco – RHP					Minor – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.25	3.93	7.11	9.30		1.06	2.98	8.37	12.20
LAST 14 DAYS	1.51	4.58	5.76	7.73		1.67	5.25	7.50	7.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs L		MIA BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – ATL -240

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home You will not find a bigger favorite then Julio Teheran today and his reputation has been well deserved. He has a 2.18 ERA at home with a K/9 just shy of 10. He catches a MIA team that has been producing since Stanton’s and Morrison’s return but is by no means a powerhouse. MIA is batting .232 on the road, .238 versus right-handers, and .266 over the last 7 days.RG Start-Ability 9

• Away I never like to take pitchers coming off of an injury. I totally avoid plyers like Henderson Alvarez who posted a 3.80 K/9 a year ago with a 4.85 WHIP. I limit my self-destructive behavior to downing bottles of Jack, gambling, and spending to much time in Gentleman’s Clubs. ATL is batting .257 at home, .252 versus right-handers, and .316 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 1

Batter Grind Down

• Home I do not know if you remember what ATL did the first onth of the season but they are hot again. Stack em’ high. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann are hot and playable either way. RG Stack Rating 8

• Away If you are playing the fade then Logan Morrison is batting .400 versus right-handers and Julio Teheran is allowing lefties a .276 BAA. RG Stack Rating 1

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