MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, June 27th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-06-27 21:07:41

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This Thursday offers us an even split of nine games, which is good because it gives us a double wave of GPPs but bad because both will have a limited number of games. Overlay is a big concern today so be mindful of that when you are building your rosters.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Texas vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Texas – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.263	0.750	17.40%	0.61		0.239	0.683	19.90%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.763	17.30%	0.50		0.237	0.653	20.10%	0.39
SP STATS	Holland – LHP					Hughes – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	3.43	8.35	11.33		1.42	5.09	8.05	8.07
LAST 14 DAYS	1.58	6.23	7.37	6.37		1.88	6.97	5.35	4.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TEX vs R		TEX BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TEX -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Phil Hughes ‘s ERA at home is really bad at 6.69. He just gave up 10 Hs and 5 ER to LAD in NYY so that should tell you something isn’t right here. TEX has been average of the last month but they are still a very deadly team and the OU is too high for me. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Derek Holland has given up 12 ER in his last 3 starts. His Ks have dropped as well. NYY is not the offensive powerhouse that they were a year ago but a start in NYY is probably not the best place to try to get back on track. Much was written about NYY inability to hit left-handers at the beginning of the year but they now sport an almost identical BAA versus left-handers as they do right-handers. Holland is the slight favorite but I will be looking towards easier matchups. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Believe it or not, left-handers have a much better batting average versus Holland at .324. Holland has been giving up a lot of fly balls which makes him venerable to the HR so consider everyone playable in this game with a high OU. Robinson Cano is 7-19 with 1 HR versus him.

• Away It has been a while since TEX has exploded and I think we see it today. Look to the left-handed bats either way since Hughes is allowing left-handers to bat .303 versus him.

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LA Angels vs. Detroit

1:05 PM	LA Angels – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.265	0.751	18.10%	0.61		0.283	0.781	16.70%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.279	0.785	17.50%	0.52		0.282	0.775	16.30%	0.51
SP STATS	Weaver – RHP					Fister – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	4.65	6.72	7.60		1.21	3.66	7.13	10.47
LAST 14 DAYS	1.57	6.62	6.28	5.40		1.32	5.21	4.74	7.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAA vs R		LAA BvP			DET vs R		DET BvP

h3. What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – DET -150

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Doug Fister got hammered last time out versus BOS. LAA poses less of a threat today. After that last start, Fister Home ERA took a dramatic jump but look for him to get back on track versus an LAA team that has not hit well on the road. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Jered Weaver has struggled in his last 3 starts. He draws one of the toughest home teams in baseball today in DET and DET starters have some very nice BvPs against him. All signs point to no on this one. RG Start-ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Ladies and Gentlemen start your DET stacks!

• Away J.B. Shuck has been the Angels hottest player producing 30.25 fp over the last 7 days. Mike Trout keeps chugging along and is playable everyday if you can afford him. Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick have positive BvPs versus Fister.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee

2:10 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.696	19.90%	0.54		0.259	0.721	19.50%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.240	0.695	19.00%	0.42		0.255	0.713	18.60%	0.42
SP STATS	Garza – RHP					Peralta – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.14	4.25	7.91	9.59		1.60	5.59	5.07	6.38
LAST 14 DAYS	1.10	4.50	7.20	10.00		1.16	3.44	3.48	7.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – Pick’em

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home There are numerous reason for you to ignore Wily Peralta today. For starters, he has a horrible K/9. His homer ERA is 6.20 and he is allowing opponents to bat .302 versus him. He had a very nice start his last time out going 7 IP with no ER and 4 Ks versus the braves and the cubs are not much of a threat on the road. Only 8 pitchers on the Dayside so he is worth a look if you think he can get the win RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Matt Garza has gone 15 IP with 7 Hs and 1 ER over his last 2 starts. Okay, those starts were against HOU and NYM but MIL is not that big of an offensive threat these days either and shares the exact same record as this CHCthat everyone loves to pick on. Garza has been better on the road with a 3.22 ERA and the Brewers are slumping right now. Start-ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jean Segura and Rickie Weeks have both been hot over the last 7 days. Segura is batting .320 versus right-handed pitching. Weeks offers value and is playable because of his upside.

• Away Anthony Rizzo is on a nice little run with 31 fp over the last 7 days. He has 1 HR in 4 AB versus Peralta. Ryan Sweeny is also hot with 24.25 fp . Nate Schierholtz is batting .305 versus right-handed pitching.

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Arizona vs. Washington

4:05 PM	Arizona – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.260	0.720	18.30%	0.56		0.232	0.664	21.70%	0.49
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.267	0.739	18.80%	0.48		0.211	0.606	22.10%	0.33
SP STATS	Corbin – LHP					Strasburg – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.01	2.19	6.96	12.81		1.03	2.40	8.99	11.79
LAST 14 DAYS	0.86	3.00	6.00	9.33		0.83	1.50	9.75	13.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			WSN vs L		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6.5

• Favored Team – WAS -145

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home This should be a great matchup. Stephen Strasburg at home is 1.13 pitcher. He has not been overpowering on the year but he has been very consistent. He K’ed 9 batters his last time out so maybe he is turning a corner. Either way, he is the solid favorite in a game with an OU of only 6.5 RG Start-ability 8

• Away I wrote about Patrick Corbin ‘s demise a few weeks back. After a string of lackluster performances, I thought the young pitcher was headed for a sustained downturn in production. Boy was I wrong. His ERA takes a dip on the road to 2.85 but that is still very good. He catches a WAS team that has struggled offensively all year. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Avoid all the left-handers because left-handers have a mere .140 BAA versus Corbin. If you want to play the fade then target Desmon, Zimmerman, or Werth.

• Away I do not see the upside in playing any of the DBacks today. If you want to play the fade then chose some of the left-handed bats because left-handers are batting 40 points higher versus Strasburg then right-handers.

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Night Games: June 27, 2013

NY Mets vs. Colorado

6:10 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.228	0.666	22.90%	0.52		0.271	0.772	19.20%	0.66
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.227	0.667	23.10%	0.41		0.273	0.787	19.50%	0.54
SP STATS	Hefner – RHP					Chatwood – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.31	3.89	6.89	7.73		1.34	2.22	7.13	10.53
LAST 14 DAYS	1.59	2.12	6.88	10.00		1.46	2.45	4.09	8.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			COL vs R		COL BvP

h3. What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 10.5

• Favored Team – COL -170

Pitcher Grind Down

No offense to either of these two players because both are pitching fantastic but the high OU of this game makes me think it is unwise to take either of them. The game will probably go under but I think a score of 6-4 seems reasonable, which would not be good for either pitcher. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Michael Cuddyer has been hot over the last 7 days with 29.25 fp. He is also batting .343 versus right-handers. Carlos Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario look likely to produce as well.

• Away David Wright is super hot with 36 fp over the last week. Eric Young Jr. has also been hot with 26.5 fp. Josh Satin has been receiving playing time and is a nice cheap option.

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