MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, September 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-19 16:08:07

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh

12:35 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.671	20.90%	0.38		0.242	0.700	21.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Kennedy – RHP					Cole – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	4.85	8.14	8.83		1.16	3.33	7.02	10.59
LAST 14 DAYS	1.24	2.65	10.06	11.67		0.95	1.35	9.45	15.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ian Kennedy – 4 of last 5 starts for Kennedy have been good starts. He’s pitching much better since he came over from the D-Backs. He’s actually faced the Pirates once already this year and threw 7 scoreless innings. I don’t love Kennedy today though because he is a big underdog and is pitching away from Petco. Rating = 4

• Gerrit Cole – Cole has really turned it on in his last 3 starts. He’s only allowed a combined 3 earned runs over those starts while striking out an impressive batters. The Padres don’t hit right hand pitching that well and Cole is a big favorite. If he pitches well, he should be in line for the win. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

SD – Cole has kept the batting averages against him down for both left and right handed bats. He’s striking out more batters as the season has gone on and the Padres struggle against righties. I think this game is all about the Pirates.

PIT – Kennedy has given up 17 HR’s to left hand bats compared to only 8 to right hand bats. Justin Morneau and Pedro Alvarez both look like good plays with the splits in their favor. And as always, Andrew McCutchen is a good option.

Seattle vs. Detroit

1:05 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.723	21.40%	0.47		0.268	0.763	18.50%	0.50
SP STATS	Paxton – LHP					Fister – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.75	0.75	6.00	13.50		1.31	3.67	6.57	10.11
LAST 14 DAYS	0.75	0.75	6.00	13.50		1.38	2.57	6.00	11.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs R		SEA BvP			DET vs L		DET BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Paxton – Paxton is a good prospect that has pitched well in his first two major league starts. He’s only allowed one earned run over 12 innings while striking out 8 batters. If it were a number of different matchups I would consider him today, but I’m not taking a rookie lefty against the Tigers in Detroit. Rating = 3

• Doug Fister – At first glance, you may think that all the left hand bats of the Mariners would be a bad matchup for the right handed Fister, but Fister has actually held lefties to a .260 batting average and is giving up a .305 batting average to righties. I think Fister pitches well today and picks up the win. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

SEA – The best that any Mariner’s bats have been able to do against Fister is to go 2/6 with a double which was Raul Ibanez. If you watched last night’s game you know that the M’s can string together hits, but I’m not that high on their matchup today.

DET – Miguel Cabrera. That’s who should be in your lineups today. Miggy is batting .371 against lefties and .364 at home this season. He should be able to capitalize on any mistake made by the rookie. I also like Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. The 3,4,5 hitters look like a nice mini-stack.

San Francisco vs. NY Mets

1:10 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51		0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.260	0.689	17.30%	0.39		0.241	0.678	23.20%	0.39
SP STATS	Bumgarner – LHP					Niese – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.04	2.83	8.76	12.34
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	2.00	10.50	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs L		SFG BvP			NYM vs L		NYM BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – Matt Cain pitched a great game in Citi Field last night and I think Bumgarner tops that performance. The Mets are only batting .241 against lefties on the season and are batting .221 at home. This seems like the stars are aligning for Bumgarner. Rating = 10

• Jonathon Niese – Niese has pitched well at home this season with a 2.69 ERA. The Giants however, are in a rare streak where they are scoring a lot of runs each and every night. Over the last 7 days, the Giants are batting .280 with an OPS over .800. And that’s as a team. I think Niese could make a nice GPP contrarian play, but Bumgarner is the way to go in 50/50’s. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

SF – Hunter Pence is swinging a hot bat right now. He’s facing a pretty good pitcher in a pitcher friendly park though so this is one of those scenarios where I don’t think it will hurt you to shy away from the hot bat.

NYM – Typically, the hitters ranking is inverse with their opposing pitcher’s ranking. Since I have Bumgarner ranked as a 10, you know that I don’t think very highly of the Mets bats today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee

2:10 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54		0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.702	19.40%	0.43		0.250	0.702	18.90%	0.42
SP STATS	Arrieta – RHP					Lohse – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.45	5.49	7.83	7.51		1.21	3.46	5.67	8.97
LAST 14 DAYS	1.17	4.32	7.78	8.73		1.25	4.05	4.05	8.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has a 6.86 ERA on the road this season and has a tough matchup against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers offense has been putting up runs and Miller Park is definitely more of a hitter’s park than a pitcher’s park. Rating = 2

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse is a guy that is rarely owned in daily fantasy baseball. It may be the fact that he plays for the Brewers, but I think he is a better pitcher than most people do. He has been excellent at home this season with a 2.85 ERA. I think he pitches well against these Cubbies. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

CHC – If you don’t like Lohse today, you may want to target Junior Lake. He is 3/6 with a HR off of Lohse. Other than that, there aren’t many other options.

MIL – Aramis Ramirez is seeing the ball well right now. Over his last 3 games he has 3 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs, and an RBI. I like him today against Arrieta. I also think his teammates Jonathan Lucroy and and Carlos Gomez are good plays.

St. Louis vs. Colorado

3:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.277	0.747	17.70%	0.47		0.268	0.748	19.70%	0.48
SP STATS	Wacha – RHP					Oswalt – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.10	2.81	8.63	7.39		1.79	7.71	10.71	5.53
LAST 14 DAYS	0.94	1.00	6.00	10.67		1.75	7.88	7.88	4.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			COL vs R		COL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Michael Wacha – Everytime I hear his name, I think of the Sesame Street character that goes “Wacha wacha wacha.” I’m sticking to the rule of no pitchers in Coors Field. There is way more risk than the potential reward. Rating = 3

• Roy Oswalt – Oswalt has an ERA that is creeping up to 8 on the season. At this point, I wouldn’t take Oswalt if he was pitching in Petco. This is a great game to stack the Cardinals. Rating = 1

Batter Grind Down

STL – Would it be useful if I just said that the whole team is in play? Oswalt has not looked good this season and you put a powerful offense against him in the most hitter friendly park in baseball. Things are looking good for the Cardinals bats tonight.

COL – Somehow the over/under of this game is only 9.5. I think the Cardinals could score that many runs by themselves. I like both offenses in this game today. Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Cuddyer are the stud plays and Corey Dickerson looks like a nice sleeper.

LA Dodgers vs. Arizona

3:40 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Arizona – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.723	18.40%	0.56		0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.708	19.40%	0.43		0.258	0.717	18.50%	0.45
SP STATS	Nolasco – RHP					Miley – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	3.36	7.31	10.36		1.33	3.70	6.60	9.44
LAST 14 DAYS	1.43	4.50	7.07	8.67		1.60	5.40	6.60	7.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs L		LAD BvP			ARI vs R		ARI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ricky Nolasco – Before his last start, Nolasco was looking like an All-Star. In his previous 4 starts, he had only given up 2 earned runs over 30 innings while striking out 28 batters. I certainly don’t expect that type of production to continue, but I think that limits the value of the D-Back hitters tonight. Rating = 5

• Wade Miley – Miley is that one player that I just seem to have bad luck with. When I take him, he struggles, when I don’t, he pitches well. Tonight, I do not like the matchup against the Dodgers who have a very formidable lineup. Since I don’t like him, maybe he will pitch well. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

LAD – Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, and Matt Kemp all hit lefties well. And I should also mention that Adrian Gonzalez is batting .278 against lefties even though he is left handed. All four of these guys are in play, just make sure they are in the lineup.

ARI – When Paul Goldschmidt is on, there isn’t a matchup that scares me. Goldy has been on fire over the last week and should be considered tonight against Nolasco. The rest of the team I’m not too high on as Nolasco has been pitching well.

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