MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, July 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Today’s Grind Down will not include the 2 day games since most of the sites do not have leagues that include these games.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
- FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
- K% – Strikeout Percentage
- K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP
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Houston vs. Baltimore
| 7:05 PM | Houston – ROAD | Baltimore – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.234 | 0.672 | 25.20% | 0.52 | 0.267 | 0.763 | 18.40% | 0.63 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.700 | 26.90% | 0.42 | 0.277 | 0.791 | 17.90% | 0.54 | |
| SP STATS | Norris – RHP | Chen – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.41 | 3.93 | 6.43 | 8.81 | 1.18 | 2.78 | 4.90 | 9.45 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.42 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.00 | 1.29 | 2.63 | 4.09 | 9.60 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
HOU vs L  | HOU BvP | BAL vs R | BAL BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
- Favored Team – BAL -240
Pitcher Grind Down
BAL – Usually when it comes to pitching, the Orioles pitchers are ignored because they play most of their games in hitter friendly parks and are usually facing teams like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays. But today is a different story and the Orioles get to play the Astros who as we all know love to strike out. Wei-Yin Chen gets the start tonight and really makes a great play. He has been excellent at home this season with a 1.81 ERA. He is by far the biggest favorite of the night and for good reason. Rating = 9
HOU – If Chen is the biggest favorite of the day, then obviously the Astros pitcher has to be the biggest underdog of the day. “Bud Norris(player-profile)” was scratched from his start, but his replacement is just as likely to get lit up. Lucas Harrell has struggled in the bullpen and should struggle as a starter too. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
BAL – Harrell has really struggled against right hand bats, he has given up a .330 batting average with an OPS of .906 to right hand hitters. That means you should target Adam Jones and Manny Machado. Don’t count our the left hand bats of Chris Davis, Nate McLouth, and Nick Markakis either though.
HOU – The Astros are only batting .249 as a team against left hand pitching this season which is better than their numbers against righties, but still not very good. They have more strike outs than hits and it’s not even close. Avoid them tonight.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland
| 7:05 PM | Chicago White Sox – ROAD | Cleveland – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.248 | 0.687 | 20.30% | 0.52 | 0.258 | 0.744 | 21.50% | 0.66 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.641 | 19.70% | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 21.90% | 0.50 | |
| SP STATS | Peavy – RHP | Kazmir – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.14 | 4.28 | 8.55 | 11.54 | 1.26 | 3.96 | 8.10 | 9.44 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.00 | 4.15 | 6.92 | 12.50 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 6.43 | 14.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| CHW vs L | CHW BvP | CLE vs R | CLE BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – CLE – 187
Pitcher Grind Down
CLE – Scott Kazmir has finally shown us a bit of consistency. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last 4 starts and has managed to bring his ERA under 4 for the first time in a while. Typically right when I buy into a pitcher, that’s when they blow up, but hopefully that won’t be the case. He has a solid matchup against the White Sox who only have a .231 batting average against lefties this season. Rating = 7
CWS – Jake Peavy has been scratched from his start tonight so the White Sox are forced to throw Andre Rienzo out on the mound today. I know nothing about this guy other than the fact that the line has moved a ton favoring the Indians. Seems like a great day to pick some Indians. Rating = 1
Batter Grind Down
CLE – Now that Peavy has been scratched, the Indians bats get a huge bump in value facing Rienzo. All Indians are in play today, don’t be afraid to take 3-4 hitters here.
CWS – I would say to stay away from the White Sox today, but I am still having a hard time trusting Kazmir. Dayan Viciedo has a great matchup as he has crushed lefties in his career so he is in play.
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Washington vs. Detroit
| 7:05 PM | Washington – ROAD | Detroit – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.242 | 0.682 | 21.00% | 0.53 | 0.280 | 0.781 | 17.40% | 0.66 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.249 | 0.705 | 20.70% | 0.43 | 0.284 | 0.784 | 16.80% | 0.52 | |
| SP STATS | Strasburg – RHP | Sanchez – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.07 | 2.85 | 9.29 | 11.56 | 1.19 | 2.68 | 10.30 | 13.18 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.67 | 1.80 | 10.80 | 15.00 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 6.00 | 11.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| WSN vs R | WSN BvP | DET vs R | DET BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – DET -131
Pitcher Grind Down
DET – This game has the look and feel of a pitcher’s duel. The Tigers will start Anibal Sanchez against the Nationals who rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Sanchez is coming off of a 6 inning shutout and is pitching at home where he has posted a 2.19 ERA on the season. I can’t guarantee a win, but he has a lot of upside. Rating = 8
WAS – Stephen Strasburg isn’t the underdog in many games, but when you are facing the Tigers in Detroit, you can’t expect to be favored. Strasburg has been pitching well, but his Achilles Heel has been when he is on the road. His ERA more than doubles and he only has 1 win in 9 starts. For his price tag, I think there are better options. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
DET – I don’t think you can ever rule out taking Miguel Cabrera, but I think it’s safe to rule out the rest of the Tigers. I think they will score a couple of runs, but the upside just isn’t there.
WAS – Bad offensive team against one of the best strike out pitchers in baseball. Might be smart to stay away from the Nats tonight.
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San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
| 7:05 PM | San Francisco – ROAD | Philadelphia – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.261 | 0.705 | 17.30% | 0.52 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 19.80% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.689 | 17.10% | 0.39 | 0.243 | 0.708 | 21.00% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Zito – LHP | Lannan – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.67 | 4.92 | 5.92 | 6.80 | 1.37 | 4.13 | 4.96 | 6.92 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 2.14 | 5.79 | 8.57 | 5.20 | 2.50 | 9.00 | 6.75 | 3.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SFG vs L | SFG BvP | PHI vs L | PHI BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.0
- Favored Team – PHI -119
Pitcher Grind Down
PHI – You can tell by the line of this game that neither of these starting pitchers provide much fantasy appeal. John Lannan gets the start for the Phillies and could make for an interesting GPP play. Vegas doesn’t like Lannan, but he has been solid at home with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Giants aren’t a very good offensive team and they are only batting .259 on the season against lefties. I think Lannan is in play in GPP’s. Rating = 5
SF – Barry Zito on the other hand is not in play. I don’t care that the Phillies best hitters are left handed. Zito has been atrocious on the road this season. Not only that, but he has allowed lefties to hit for a .373 average against him with an OPS of 1.025. Rating = 1
Batter Grind Down
PHI – If you are a stacker then I think the safest stack of the night has to be the Phillies. Like I said, Zito has been awful on the road with an ERA close to 10. All bats are in play, but I really like the spot for both Chase Utley and Darin Ruf.
SF – I think the Giants bats are also in play today. Lannan has been good at home, but that bubble can burst at any time, especially when he has to face a guy like Buster Posey who absolutely crushes left hand pitching.
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Colorado vs. Atlanta
| 7:10 PM | Colorado – ROAD | Atlanta – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.263 | 0.746 | 19.80% | 0.61 | 0.250 | 0.735 | 22.70% | 0.59 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.695 | 19.70% | 0.40 | 0.252 | 0.738 | 22.60% | 0.48 | |
| SP STATS | Nicasio – RHP | Wood – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.31 | 4.40 | 6.38 | 7.69 | 1.30 | 3.42 | 10.69 | 2.77 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.67 | 0.75 | 9.00 | 13.50 | 2.44 | 8.31 | 10.98 | 5.10 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| COL vs L | COL BvP | ATL vs R | ATL BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – ATL -160
Pitcher Grind Down
ATL – Alex Wood gets the start for the Braves tonight in what will only be his 3rd career start. He has been very good out of the bullpen, but has yet to make it a full 5 innings in any one game this season. The Rockies are a team that hits much better at home than they do on the road, so there is some value today with Wood, but I just don’t think he will pitch deep enough into the game to make him a viable option. Rating = 5
COL – Juan Nicasio has been very good over his last 3 starts. He has only allowed one earned run over his last 19 innings pitched while striking out 15 batters. I don’t think he will have that same type of success against the Braves tonight though. He is giving up a .284 batting average on the road and the Braves are filled with left hand power bats. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
ATL – I really like the spot for some of these Braves tonight. Jason Heyward has had a tough time hitting for average this season, but when he does make contact, he gets a hold of it. I like him in that leadoff spot. I also think lefties Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann both have a good matchup with the splits in their favor.
COL – When the Rockies face a lefty, there should be quite a few names that pop into your mind. Troy Tulowitzki, Wilin Rosario, and Michael Cuddyer all love to face left hand pitching. This game isn’t in Coors, but the rookie Wood gave up 4 earned runs to the Mets in his last start and has a much tougher challenge ahead of him tonight.
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