MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, July 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-07-24 19:40:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Oakland vs. Houston

2:10 PM	Oakland – ROAD					Houston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.712	19.80%	0.59		0.237	0.672	25.20%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.711	19.60%	0.46		0.229	0.651	24.80%	0.38
SP STATS	Griffin – RHP					Norris – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.13	3.82	6.94	10.16		1.44	3.91	6.27	8.71
LAST 14 DAYS	1.08	2.77	4.85	10.00		2.16	10.97	6.18	2.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	OAK vs R		OAK BvP			HOU vs R		HOU BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
• Favored Team – OAK -170

Pitcher Grind Down

HOU – Bud Norris is a very good pitcher at home. At least compared to the pitcher that he is on the road. This season Norris has a 2.81 ERA at home, but he has struggled in his last two starts and is a huge underdog today against the A’s who are such a tough offense. Norris is playable on a site like Draftstreet where he is dirt cheap and you can select two other pitchers, but I would stay away from him on single pitcher sites. In Play

OAK – A.J. Griffin is a fairly high strike out pitcher averaging almost 7 per 9 innings. Then you have the Astros who strike out more than any other team in the league. The Astros have been a below average team against right hand pitching all season long and I have to agree with Vegas on this one. Griffin is a huge favorite and for good reason. Target

Batter Grind Down

HOU – Jason Castro has had some success against Griffin in the past going 3/6 with 3 HR’s. Overall, I think I would rather take Griffin and avoid the Astros bats, but Castro is certainly in play as he has some great power numbers against right hand pitching.

OAK – Norris is allowing lefties to hit for a .317 average and a .875 OPS. Those are great numbers if you play for the A’s and you are a left hand bat. Coco Crisp, John Jaso, and Josh Reddick are all in play thanks to the great splits.

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Minnesota vs. LA Angels

3:35 PM	Minnesota – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.696	21.10%	0.54		0.266	0.752	18.20%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.695	21.00%	0.43		0.275	0.773	17.90%	0.50
SP STATS	Pelfrey – RHP					Weaver – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.54	5.40	5.11	5.95		1.23	3.30	7.13	10.02
LAST 14 DAYS	1.34	3.86	8.04	8.10		1.41	2.92	8.18	11.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIN vs R		MIN BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
• Favored Team – LAA -250

Pitcher Grind Down

LAA – Jered Weaver has really stepped it up over his last 5 starts. In July he is 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA and he has always been a pitcher that fares well at home. The Twins are a pretty good offense, but you have to love Weaver’s chances to pick up a win considering who the opposing starter is. Target

MIN – Mike Pelfrey should be avoided for many many reasons. Not enough K’s, gives up way too many runs, is a huge underdog, and did I mention he’s just not very good? Avoid

Batter Grind Down

LAA – All Angels bats are in play today as Pelfrey is just as bad against left hand bats as he is against right hand bats. Josh Hamilton would make a great play if he is in the lineup as does Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Albert Pujols. Don’t be shy with the Angels tonight.

MIN – Weaver appears to have figured it out. Not very good news for the Twins bats. Much better options elsewhere.

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Cleveland vs. Seattle

3:40 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Seattle – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.256	0.744	21.50%	0.65		0.244	0.713	21.70%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.261	0.754	20.10%	0.51		0.232	0.675	22.90%	0.40
SP STATS	Kazmir – LHP					Saunders – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	4.30	8.12	8.88		1.43	4.28	5.03	8.30
LAST 14 DAYS	1.06	2.00	7.00	10.67		1.57	2.19	8.18	14.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs L		CLE BvP			SEA vs L		SEA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
• Favored Team – SEA -115

Pitcher Grind Down

SEA – Joe Saunders has actually really pitched well lately. He has had 4 straight quality starts in a row and is pitching at Safeco where the splits really favor him. I think he provides some good value if he is still really cheap, but if his price tag is around the middle range, I would look elsewhere. The Indians have a very good offense. In Play

CLE – Scott Kazmir has a pretty decent K rate, but he usually doesn’t pitch too deep into games and he is very inconsistent. While the Mariners aren’t great against lefties, I think they find some success against Kazmir tonight. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

SEA – Kazmir has had trouble getting right hand bats out this season. He is allowing them to hit for an OPS of .865 which includes 13 home runs. Kendrys Morales and Nick Franklin both look to be in a good spot tonight.

CLE – Joe Saunders has been pitching well lately, but his numbers against righties are really alarming. He is giving up a .313 average and a .899 OPS against right hand bats. You make the call whether or not you want to roll the dice on any Indians bats.

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Pittsburgh vs. Washington

7:05 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.700	22.30%	0.55		0.240	0.682	21.00%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.243	0.702	21.90%	0.42		0.212	0.621	21.20%	0.35
SP STATS	Liriano – LHP					Strasburg – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	2.44	9.33	13.77		1.13	2.97	8.99	11.16
LAST 14 DAYS	1.26	3.97	8.11	10.05		1.89	9.00	8.00	4.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			WSN vs L		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.0
• Favored Team – WAS -145

Pitcher Grind Down

WAS – Stephen Strasburg is one of the few pitchers that everyone knows his splits. He is great at home and has a very high K rate. Things are looking good for Strasburg to have another Stellar start at home. Target

PIT – Francisco Liriano is the contrarian play today. He is about the same price as Strasburg and has very similar upside. He is a high strike out pitcher going against a pretty weak offense. I don’t think I will be taking him just because I don’t think he will get the win, but he could provide some great value in a GPP. In Play

Batter Grind Down

• When the line is this low and the game features two of the best pitchers in the game, choose a side for your pitcher and then watch the pitcher’s duel. No use in wasting your salary on hitters in this one.

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LA Dodgers vs. Toronto

7:07 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.715	18.30%	0.55		0.251	0.732	18.70%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.263	0.715	18.10%	0.42		0.251	0.742	19.10%	0.50
SP STATS	Nolasco – RHP					Rogers – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.25	3.75	7.04	9.53		1.34	3.84	6.19	3.41
LAST 14 DAYS	1.46	3.12	5.79	8.70		1.25	3.86	8.84	8.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs R		LAD BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
• Favored Team – Pick ‘Em

Pitcher Grind Down

TOR – Esmil Rogers is a guy that has much better numbers than you would think, yet he is still a guy that I would rather take hitters against. Rogers has struggled at home and this Dodgers team has been on fire lately including back to back double digit run games. Stay far away. Avoid

LAD – Ricky Nolasco can also be avoided tonight. This one should be another high scoring affair that doesn’t feature the starting pitchers for very long. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

TOR – Jose Reyes has 9 hits and 3 stolen bases in his last 6 games. This is the Reyes that the Blue Jays were hoping that they signed. I think he continues his hot streak tonight. I also like the matchup for Jose Bautista, he is a HR machine.

LAD – The Dodgers are on fire right now and should be taken until they cool off. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Andre Ethier all have the lefty/righty splits in their favor but you can’t rule out Puig or Ramirez either.

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