Free Premium! Hittin' The Nuts with Squirrelpatrol - Friday, May 17th
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their MLB DFS lineup advice than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, won the FanDuel 2018 MLB Live Final for $300,000, got 2nd place in the FanDuel 2022 MLB Live Final for $250,000, got 2nd place in the DraftKings 2023 MLB Live Final for $600,000, and most recently, took down a DraftKings Milly Maker for a $1,000,000 prize.
MLB DFS Lineup Advice Today
Friday night brings 13 games on the schedule, although rain in Atlanta could cut that number down for their game against the Padres. With 26 (or 24) offenses and starting pitchers to pick from, projected ownership is spread out among some top options in both categories. Let’s sort through the slate and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
Top MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Top Stacks
Overall Stack: New York Yankees
Implied Run Total: 4.77 (5th)
Projected Total Ownership: 38% (FD) / 41% (DK)
The Yankees get the nod as my top stack, with a high implied run total, controlled pOWN%, power throughout the lineup, and blow-up potential facing Mike Clevinger and the White Sox. I’m reluctant to prioritize home teams, because if the lineup is outscoring every other team on the slate, they’ll only have 8 innings of plate appearances to work with. But the Yankees rank 3rd in the league in wOBA, Clevinger has lasted only 6.2 innings across 2 starts this season, and the White Sox bullpen has the worst xFIP in the league.
Aaron Judge is my top bat here. Judge doesn’t have the platoon advantage when he’s facing RHP, but he does have a career 1.023 OPS, 178 wRC+, and 105 HRs in 1,393 PAs vs. RHP at home. Juan Soto does have the platoon advantage, and while he’ll likely see higher ownership, he also has a .263 ISO and .416 wOBA vs. RHP over the past two seasons. If you’re playing on DraftKings, Austin Wells fills the required catcher spot nicely, with a .208 ISO vs. RHP over the same time frame, and Wells can be used as a lower-owned part of the stack on FanDuel as well.
FanDuel Stack: Texas Rangers
Implied Run Total: 5.14 (2nd)
Projected Total Ownership: 43%
The Rangers won’t go too overlooked with the 2nd-highest implied run total on the slate, but with so many teams in play, I don’t think they’ll see extremely high ownership either. They fit in well on FanDuel where we have more salary to work with and where home runs can be relatively more valuable. The team is facing LHP Tyler Anderson, and while Anderson has good surface numbers on the season (2.92 ERA), his K% is below average (17.9%).
Adolis Garcia has pronounced home/away splits for his career, and his best numbers come when facing LHP at home. He has a career .898 OPS with a .541 SLG% at home vs. LHP, but with single-digit pOWN%, I think he is one of the most under-owned hitters on the slate. Ezequiel Duran is consistently one of my favorite FanDuel plays when facing LHP, with a .364 wOBA since the start of last season and eligibility at every position except 2B.
DraftKings Stack: Seattle Mariners
Implied Run Total: 3.99 (14th)
Projected Ownership: 43%
Seattle is an offense we generally like to target for pitchers because of their league-leading K%, but the lineup has upside to go along with that strikeout rate. On DraftKings, where salary can be a concern and filling the catcher spot is a requirement, they are one of my favorite stacks at their pOWN%, with the 9th-cheapest average hitter cost and multiple catchers with upside.
Dylan Moore (.241 ISO vs. LHP since the start of last season) and Cal Raleigh (.237 ISO) have power (and catcher eligibility for Raleigh), and despite a slow start this season, Julio Rodriguez has a .361 wOBA against LHP over the past two seasons and 9 SBs already this season. If Mitch Garver is in the lineup, he is a second catcher option, and he carries a .412 wOBA vs. LHP since the start of last season.
Top Pitchers
Christian Scott
FanDuel: $9,100
DraftKings: $8,100
I’ve advocated all season for going underweight chalky, high-priced pitchers, with three exceptions: Pablo Lopez on April 23rd against the White Sox, and Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow this week against the Rockies and Reds, respectively. Those three exceptions have combined for a 6.34 ERA and less than 5 innings per start. I may continue going under the field on chalky, high-priced pitchers the rest of the season (in tonight’s case, Cole Ragans and Nestor Cortes).
Christian Scott has combined for 50 Ks in 37 IP across Triple-A and the majors this season (12.2 K/9) and has only allowed 4 ERs in 12.2 IP in his 2 major league starts (picking up a quality start in both). He’s seeing low projected ownership, has high upside, and is facing a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in the league in wOBA and SLG%. Scott is priced near the mid-range on both FanDuel and DraftKings, has as much upside as any pitcher on the slate with a solid floor against the Marlins, but his pOWN% is below 15% on both sites.
Hunter Brown
FanDuel: $6,700
(DraftKings: $6,900)
It’s a bit tough to recommend Hunter Brown based on this season’s numbers, with a 7.79 ERA and 2.01 WHIP through 8 games, but that’s just the kind of thing I’m looking for from under-the-radar pitchers who can pay off their price at low ownership. Brown is facing a Milwaukee offense that should be one of the more popular stacks on the slate, giving him a solid amount of leverage if he can put up a big game, and his numbers look much better if we’re a bit selective. Removing his one game against the Royals in early April when he allowed 9 ERs in 0.2 IP, he has a more reasonable 5.40 ERA over 7 starts. That’s not spectacular, but Brown is the 2nd-cheapest pitcher on FanDuel, and Milwaukee has the 9th-highest K% this season, giving Brown upside for the price if you’re willing to take the risk.
Kyle Harrison
(FanDuel: $9,000)
DraftKings: $8,200
Kyle Harrison has an excellent matchup, and he’s just the 8th-cheapest pitcher on DraftKings. That allows some interesting combinations using him as either a SP1 paired with a much cheaper SP2 or as part of a build using two mid-priced pitchers. Harrison is facing a Rockies team that has hit better lately but still has the 2nd-highest K% in the league (26.1%). Harrison also has the benefit of facing the lineup at home in San Francisco, one of the best parks for pitchers in the majors, and he shut the Rockies out in 7 innings 10 days ago in Coors Field.
We have a lot to choose from on this slate, and it should be a good night of baseball with so many teams in play. Let’s hope one of us hits the nuts tonight!
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