Million Dollar Musings: Friday, July 7
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday! We’ve got a big 12-game slate, with a huge group of top tier pitchers that are not quite elite aces but all good enough to post slate-winning DFS scores. On the hitting side, we find a clear top tier trio, but then things spread out equally far, making for a lot of different ways to build lineups tonight.
My initial thought is that ownership is unlikely to get overly condensed anywhere, and I’m starting with the idea that we can just play whoever we want and assume that the options are spread out enough that our lineups will naturally be a little different from the field.
With that, let’s jump on in and take a look at some MLB DFS picks for this big Friday night slate.
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I see more than a dozen pitchers who can essentially qualify as ‘top tier,’ though I’ll get them sorted out as best as possible by making a few early cuts. Here’s the bird’s eye view on this big group:
Corbin Burnes vs. Reds – 23% K, 8.4% BB, 4.00 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Pirates – 26.8% K, 5.1% BB, 3.15 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
Hunter Brown vs. Mariners – 27.5% K, 8% BB, 3.76 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Carlos Rodon vs. Cubs – 1st start of season
Luis Castillo at Astros – 27.9% K, 6.9% BB, 3.05 ERA, 3.60 SIERA
Dylan Cease vs. Cardinals – 27.4% K, 10% BB, 4.10 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Andrew Abbott at Brewers – 29.4% K, 9.1% BB, 1.21 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Justin Verlander at Padres – 20.8% K, 6.1% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Yu Darvish vs. Mets – 25.7% K, 7.6% BB, 4.84 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery at White Sox – 22% K, 6.3% BB, 3.28 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Tony Gonsolin vs. Angels – 19% K, 9.7% BB, 3.69 ERA, 4.98 SIERA
Aaron Civale vs. Royals – 18.4% K, 8.4% BB, 2.96 ERA, 4.84 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs. Orioles – 24.9% K, 5.1% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
This is a ton of pitchers who are all in a similar-ish skill range. DK has bunched up the pricing, with every one of these 13 pitchers between $7,700 – $9,900, and 10 of them even more bunched than that between $8,100 – $9,400. Essentially, salary is not going to be the deciding factor among this group on DK. We find a similar situation on FD, although they have Andrew Abbott priced up at $10,600, with all but one of these 13 above $8,700. I’ll mention salary here and there, but basically, it’s a day to decide who you like for raw points and ownership. On that note, I’ll also say that, at first glance, I’m not at all convinced that ownership is going to be any kind of issue either.
OK, with so many pitchers, I’m going to start by making some cuts from the primary pool. Just keep in mind that it’s completely viable to play any and all of these guys in MME tonight. The first cut is the easiest with Carlos Rodon making his season debut. He topped out at just 58 pitches in low minors rehab, and with no real discount here, he’s missing the cut.
Next, I’m skipping Tony Gonsolin with his below-average strikeouts and limited leash. The next cut for me would be Aaron Civale, except he is the one guy here sneaking below the $8k mark on DK. So if salary does become an issue, I’m not quite calling him a cut. The matchup is just good enough that you can play for a quality start at a fair price, but for me, he will not make my first 10-20 lineups.
It’s messy how quickly it becomes difficult to remove anyone, but being as picky as I can, I’ll drop Jordan Montgomery next. The White Sox are enough better against left-handed pitching to not be crazy about his completely average skills in this ballpark.
At this point, let me flip the script and try to figure out who I do like.
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