Million Dollar Musings: Monday, April 10
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! I hope you all enjoyed your weekend. As great as my weekend was, I always have a strange sort of Monday after Easter withdrawal. As you may know, my life force is mostly sustained through ice cream consumption. But all of a sudden one day, usually on the Thursday or Friday before Easter, a crazy ton of delicious candy, headlined by Cadbury Crème Eggs, shows up in my kitchen. Then, for 3-4 days, I just eat so much candy that it seems potentially sub-optimal for health reasons to also eat my customary life-sustaining ice cream. So, I wake up Monday morning, full and happy, but also, quite in need of ice cream. But then there is also leftover candy. It’s all very confusing. Let’s talk about baseball for awhile and see if it all gets sorted out.
We’ve got ourselves an 8-game Monday night slate, which is just about my favorite size for DFS. This slate also comes with a great spread of aces, mid-tier starters, and attackable pitchers. We are likely to see some chalk with the Cardinals visiting Coors Field and Mike Trout and friends facing Patrick Corbin, but other that that, we should be pretty spread out.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I immediately see a group of 8 starting pitchers that I have some interest in tonight, and I can quickly separate them into these three buckets:
The Two Aces
Max Scherzer vs Padres
Luis Castillo at Cubs
Tier Two Foursome
Julio Urias at Giants
Andrew Heaney vs Royals
Zac Gallen vs Brewers
Yu Darvish at Mets
Cheaper Options
Bryce Elder vs Reds
Jose Suarez vs Nationals
Max Or Luis?
Max Scherzer vs Padres – 30.6% K, 4.2% BB, 2.29 ERA, 2.88 SIERA
Luis Castillo at Cubs – 27.2% K, 7.3% BB, 2.99 ERA, 3.35 SIERA
The long-term numbers clearly favor Scherzer as the ace, and even in a tougher matchup, he should project as the top pitcher. However, he has not started this season strong, with a mediocre 8:4 K:BB ratio and a concerning rise in his already high fly ball rate, which has led to early season home run problems. Plus, while it’s not a significant amount, his fastball velocity has dipped slightly. It may well be just a slow start to the year blip, but this is also a 38-year-old with a ton of innings on that arm, so I wouldn’t be stunned if the velocity doesn’t come back. None of this means I don’t still like Scherzer, and I fully expect to see him right back around the 30% K mark, but it does mean that I’m not thrilled with an expensive, possibly chalky pitcher in a tough matchup.
