Million Dollar Musings: Monday, June 19
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! We’ve got a somewhat lopsided 7-game slate with seven good pitchers, which also leads directly to a top-tier of seven offenses. I’ll walk through my favorite MLB DFS picks on both sides of things, but just know that things are pretty wide open on both sides once you separate out the top seven pitchers and the top seven offenses.
We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather in the Rockies-Reds game, with Roth starting it out at Orange/Yellow. But with no pitchers in play from that game, I’m just assuming for now that it is good to go.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a solid top tier of pitching options followed by a quick decline into nothingness. I’ve listed a couple sub-$6k DK options here, but beyond that, there is just nothing worth mentioning.
Something Like Five Or Seven Aces
Corbin Burnes vs. Diamondbacks -24.3% K, 8.5% BB, 3.44 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Hunter Brown at Mets – 27.1% K, 8.5% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Max Scherzer at Astros – 25.3% K, 5.9% BB, 4.45 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
James Paxton at Twins – 33.1% K, 7.5% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.13 SIERA
Pablo Lopez vs. Red Sox – 29.2% K, 6.6% BB, 4.27 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Merrill Kelly at Brewers – 26.9% K, 10.3% BB, 3.04 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Michael Wacha vs. Giants – 23.2% K, 7% BB, 2.89 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
A Little Cheaper
Andrew Heaney at White Sox – 24.4% K, 10.8% BB, 4.05 ERA, 4.42 SIERA
Drew Smyly at Pirates – 20.1% K, 6.5% BB, 3.59 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
Osvaldo Bido vs. Cubs – 2nd start
WHO IS THE ACE?
Long-term, Max Scherzer is the ace and Corbin Burnes is the other ace. Using 2023 data, James Paxton and Pablo Lopez are the aces, followed by Hunter Brown. In real-life results over the past eight starts, Michael Wacha is the ace.
Both Scherzer and Burnes have been much better recently and closer to their old selves. Scherzer had another dud last week, failing to make it out of the 4th inning, but we have seen his strikeouts and pitch count up for three straight starts prior to that. Burnes has been something close to ace-Burnes over his last seven starts, with 7+ strikeouts in six of them, though still with more control and home run issues than you’d ideally like to see.
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