MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, April 7
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, April 7th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We have a six-game main slate on FD starting at 6:40 PM ET, and a five-game main slate on DK starting at 7:20 PM ET. So any mention of the OAK/TBR game will be specific to FanDuel.
Coors Field disappointed yesterday with just one run scored, but today it’s still sitting at an 11 run total. And we may see reduced ownership from recency bias. There’s also a good number of other offenses in nice spots today, so stack ownership will likely be more spread out than usual when Coors is on a slate. Let’s get to the slate breakdown and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SDP/ATL is going to be cold, windy, and wet, so there’s a decent chance they decide to PPD it early. If it does play I would be very hesitant to use the SPs in any capacity, while the bats would be just GPP plays, as it’s not great hitting weather and there would be risk the game is called early.
- The only other outdoor games are WSH/COL and TOR/LAA, both of which will see temps in the low 60s to mid 50s, with COL having a 5mph breeze blowing in, and LAA having 5-10mph wind blowing out to center. OAK/TB, STL/MIL, and LAD/ARI are in domes.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- If the ATL game even plays we won’t see Michael Harris as he landed on the IL with a back injury. Sam Hilliard is a candidate to start for him, while Kevin Pillar and Eli White are the other options.
- We’ll see if Tyler O’Neill is back in the lineup after getting benched for lack of hustle last game, so either he or Dylan Carlson will start in CF.
- The Nats finally get to face a righty SP, but will go with Alex Call at leadoff instead of Luis Garcia, who is hitting 6th.
- The Rockies will go with a normal lineup against the lefty Gore, as both Blackmon and McMahon are starting, although McMahon is down to 6th.
- Anthony Rendon has one more game on his suspension and will be out today, and there’s a good chance the Dodgers get both Vargas and Rojas back from their minor injuries. I’d also expect Austin Barnes to catch Kershaw instead of Smith.
- My favorite stacks are the Dodgers and Nationals, with the Rockies a slight tier below as they have a tougher matchup against MacKenzie Gore who just dominated the Braves. TOR, LAA, and MIL are other stacks I like in GPPs, along with the Rays on FD. If the SD/ATL game plays then both teams are reasonable GPP stacks, although hitting conditions won’t be great.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Brandon Woodruff ($10,500) and Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) are the main SPs I’m considering in cash games, with Woodruff getting the slight edge as he’s at home and has a higher ceiling than Kershaw along with a likely higher pitch count. Zach Eflin ($8,800) is also in consideration if you need the salary savings, while MacKenzie Gore ($7,800) is as cheap as I would consider for a cash game SP.
- Alex Call ($3,000), Luis Garcia ($3,000), Jeimer Candelario ($3,100), and Dominic Smith ($3,200) make for a great cheap stack and is my favorite way to get Coors field exposure in cash games. For the Rockies I’m considering Jurickson Profar ($2,900), Yonathan Daza ($3,000) if he hits 2nd, and Elehuris Montero ($3,100) as potential value plays.
- The Rays are an offense I want some exposure to in cash games against the lefty Waldichuk who got shelled for 6 ER in his first start. Yandy Diaz ($3,100), Isaac Paredes ($2,300), and Harold Ramirez ($2,200) make for great value plays and using a couple will help fit in either Wander Franco ($4,000) and/or Randy Arozarena ($3,900).
- From my favorite offense LAD today, J.D. Martinez ($3,000) is looking a bit too cheap with the platoon advantage on Bumgarner and likely hitting 3rd, and he will be a popular cash game play today for most people I think. If Chris Taylor ($2,500) hits 5th or 6th I think he’s a great value play with his positional eligibility, while Miguel Vargas ($2,500) is also a top value option if he’s back in the lineup today.
- Jack Flaherty ended with a solid line in his first start, but escaped some serious jams as he issued 7 walks, so I don’t mind taking a couple Brewers in your main build. Their entire projected lineup is $3,200 or cheaper, so guys with the platoon advantage like Christian Yelich ($3,200), Jesse Winker ($2,700), Rowdy Tellez ($2,500), and Garrett Mitchell ($2,900) all make for solid value plays depending on your positional needs.
- MacKenzie Gore ($6,500) is the 3rd cheapest pitcher, and with legit 20+ FP upside, today he’s going to be hard to fade in cash games even in Coors. Woodruff ($10k) remains my SP1.
- The Nationals are way underpriced on DK, with just one projected starter over $3.3k in Joey Meneses ($4,500). I will likely use at least four of them in cash games, with Call, Garcia, Candelario, Smith, and Ruiz all just too cheap given the matchup with Urena.
- JD Martinez ($4,700) is a bit pricier relative to FD but still a strong play, while Chris Taylor ($3,500), Miguel Vargas ($2,400), and Trayce Thompson ($2,800) make for a great value stack.
- Another cheap value stack to consider is Jesse Winker ($3,100), Rowdy Tellez ($3,100), and Garrett Mitchell ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!