MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, March 31
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, March 31st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
The hype of opening day is behind us, and the grind has begun. We have a five-game main slate starting at 6:40 PM ET, and we still have a good amount of elite pitchers to choose from after so many aces went yesterday. We obviously have fewer bats to choose from with six fewer games than yesterday, but there are still plenty of great MLB DFS picks out there. So let’s dive in and see what we can find.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- All games should be clear for rain, as we have three dome games and two in southern California with 0% precipitation expected.
- COL/SDP will have 8-9mph wind blowing in from left, and ARI/LAD will have 5-8mph wind blowing out to right center. Both games will be in the mid-50s.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Mets should start most of their regulars other than Pham likely starting over Vogelbach and Nido over Narvaez against the lefty Luzardo.
- Miami should also go righty heavy against the lefty Peterson, so look for Jon Berti and Yuli Gurriel to crack the lineup, and Fortes may start at C over Stallings.
- Oscar Colas likely makes his MLB debut for the White Sox as a starter today as he sat yesterday against a lefty. The Astros should be pretty similar as yesterday against another righty.
- Profar will likely need more time before he starts for Colorado, so Daza should continue to hit leadoff until he’s ready. Mike Moustakas is likely to be in over Montero against the righty Martinez.
- The Padres will look different against the lefty Freeland, with Bogaerts likely at leadoff instead of Grisham yesterday. Nelson Cruz will likely be the DH as he platoons with Carpenter.
- The D-Backs will look different against the righty Dustin May, as Carroll and McCarthy hit 7th and 9th yesterday against a lefty, but both should hit in the top three today with Carroll leading off. Josh Rojas and Alek Thomas should also crack the lineup as they get more lefties in there. Dodgers should look close to the same as yesterday against another righty.
- CLE and SEA should be pretty similar as yesterday, but Gabriel Arias has a good shot at starting over Naylor against the lefty Robbie Ray along with Oscar Gonzalez over Brennan.
- My favorite stacks are LAD, SEA, and SDP, in that order; the Astros are my favorite GPP stack.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Cristian Javier ($10,100), Robbie Ray ($9,900), and Dustin May ($9,300) are the priciest pitchers and likely most popular cash game options. The White Sox offense scares me a bit more than the Guardians, while Dustin May doesn’t have as high of a strikeout upside as Ray, so right now, I’m leaning Ray as my SP1.
- Jesus Luzardo ($9,100) is another strong play and is probably my favorite GPP pitcher today, while his opponent David Peterson ($8,300) is also worth taking a shot on outside of cash games. Nick Martinez ($7,600) is the cheapest pitcher I’d consider using today, as he was solid in spring training and will let you make a GPP team full of big bats.
- Speaking of bats, I’m looking to do a triple stack of LAD/SEA/SD in cash games, likely 3/3/2 as far as bats per team. Freddie Freeman ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,200) are where I like starting from LAD, and either Will Sith ($3,400) or JD Martinez ($2,900) will likely be the 3rd. James Outman ($2,200) is also very tempting as he homered yesterday and may hit higher than 8th today, but regardless if he hits that low again, it’s hard to ignore his upside at almost minimum price.
- Julio Rodriguez ($4,000) will be a $5k+ bat sooner rather than later, so take advantage of this price while you can. Ty France ($2,900) is my next favorite target from SEA, and I’ll likely go with Wong ($2,700), Raleigh ($2,600), or Suarez ($3,000) as my third, depending on positional needs.
- Juan Soto ($4,000) is also way too cheap, but I probably won’t have the salary left to fit him in cash games. Xander Bogaerts ($3,200) is my favorite p/$ target from SD, and Nelson Cruz ($2,500) is a high-upside value play, likely hitting cleanup and will likely be my 2nd SD bat in cash games.
- Some other value bats to consider include Jean Segura ($2,300), Garrett Cooper ($2,500), Jeremy Pena ($2,900), and CJ Cron ($3,100).
- Robbie Ray ($9,200) is still my SP1, and my SP2 will come down to Cristian Javier ($8,200), Jesus Luzardo ($7,800) or David Peterson ($6,600), depending on salary available.
- Freeman ($5,800), Rodriguez ($5,500), and Soto ($5,200) are much pricier than FD, but I would still try getting at least two of them in your cash game lineup.
- Cal Raleigh ($3,200) is by far my favorite p/$ catcher, and James Outman ($2,000) might just be too cheap to fade given the upside he showed in spring training along with last night.
- Corbin Carroll ($3,100) and Jake McCarthy ($3,300) have a tough matchup against May, but they both bring power and speed to the table and are two of my favorite value plays on DK. Both are almost automatic stolen bases when they get on, which is a huge bonus in cash games and something I heavily target.
- Other value to consider include Garrett Cooper ($3,200), Oscar Colas ($2,000), and Jarred Kelenic ($2,700).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!