Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (June 30)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Ugly, ugly Tuesday for the article. Whitlock was bad, regression finally caught up to Teheran and Rich Hill held the Padres in check.
It happens. Need to bounce back today.
Bryce Miller’s Limited Arsenal vs. Tampa Bay’s Fastball Feasting
Miller’s rookie year has been a rollercoaster. He posted a 1.15 ERA across his first five starts and followed it with a 7.40 ERA in his next five outings. It hasn’t been all bad recently, as Miller shut down the Royals and White Sox in mid-June. He’s just struggled against some of the better offenses (18 ER vs. Yankees with Judge, Rangers, Orioles).
It’s all about the fastball with Miller. He throws the 4-seamer exactly two-thirds of the time, easily the most among starters. Only Michael Kopech and Justin Steele are even above 60% 4-seam usage (both are at 62.5%).
The pitch doesn’t overwhelm with velocity (averages 95 MPH), but it’s 99th percentile in spin rate. Miller’s 4-seamer has held hitters to a .208 average, though it’s also responsible for 4 of the 5 HRs he’s allowed.
The Rays hit everything well, but they’re especially powerful against right-handed 4-seamers. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has a ridiculous .290 ISO against the pitch, compared to a (still great) .210 ISO vs. all pitches.
SUMMARY: Tampa Bay is a tough matchup regardless, but their strengths line up particularly well against Miller. Their prices will keep ownership in check, making this an excellent tournament stack if you can afford it. Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley and Jose Siri all have ISOs above .245 against right-handed 4-seamers.
I’m taking their team total Over 3.5 (-135 on DraftKings) as well.
Carlos Carrasco Falling Behind vs. San Francisco Getting Ahead
Carrasco was quietly solid in 2022, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and topping 150 innings for the first time since 2018. This season has been a different story, largely due to an evaporating strikeout rate. Carrasco’s K% has tumbled to 15.1%, easily the worst mark of his career and a far cry from the 23.6% he posted last season.
The whiffs are down and the contact rate is up, as you’d expect, but the most alarming trend is the 1st pitch strike rate. Carrasco is getting ahead of hitters just 55% of the time, well below league average (60.8%) and nowhere near his 2022 rate (68.4%, a career-high).
So Carrasco is constantly in disadvantageous counts. The question is whether San Francisco hitters can get ahead, as they have the 5th-highest 1st pitch strike rate. It’s not entirely out of their control either, since balls in play count toward the metric. The top three is a who’s who of bad offenses, with the A’s leading the way and the White Sox and Tigers not far behind.
SUMMARY: I like the Giants, but I’m going to be selective with the type of hitters here. Joc Pederson stands out as a hitter that gets ahead often (49.7% 1st pitch strike rate). Lamonte Wade is solid as well (59.7%). I’m worried about the aggressiveness of the other hitters, so won’t be going full stack.
Steady Jose Berrios vs. Boston’s Scuffling Offense
Berrios has been remarkably consistent for two months, a welcome change after his disastrous 2022. He has a 3.12 ERA since the start of May, along with a 6-2 record.
Shane McClanahan is the only true ace on today’s slate and he’s coming off a start where he left early with back tightness. We have him projected for 90 pitches, which is probably close to the ceiling. Speaking of ceilings, Berrios’ ceiling projection is less than a point behind McClanahan’s on FanDuel.
Boston was just swept by Miami and scored a total of three runs in the series. The Red Sox are 19th in wRC+ vs. RHPs in June.
SUMMARY: On a slate without many superstars, give me the consistency of Berrios. A quality start + win will go a long way today.