Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (July 25)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Fascinating pitching slate today. Tons of aces, prices are all over the place across sites, and there aren’t many cheap options to consider. Getting SP right will be the key to cashing.
Aaron Civale’s Price vs. Paying Up at SP
Today’s pitching slate is complicated, but the first decision is a binary one. Either pay up for one of the many, many aces or take the savings on Civale.
Kansas City is a slam-dunk matchup for righties these days. The Royals are 29th in wRC+ vs. RHPs over the past 30 days, and while their strikeout rate is only 10th-worst (24.4%), they’re K:BB is dead last. Civale took advantage of this matchup earlier this month, firing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts.
The issue is he’ll have to be that good again to compete with the top arms on this slate. So are the savings enough to potentially sacrifice some upside? Less than $1K separates him from Kirby/Lopez/Gallen on FanDuel. But on DraftKings, he’s about $3K (!!) cheaper than Snell/Lopez. It’s tempting.
SUMMARY: Sometimes there’s an urge to spread out SP exposure when there are so many great options. The more useful approach might be to narrow your pool to a couple aces for one build and Civale for another build.
Cleveland’s Shifting Perception vs. Struggling Zack Greinke
The Guardians used to be an offense to target with SPs, but they’ve turned it around recently. Since the start of June, Cleveland is 6th in wRC+ vs. RHPs, and they’ve maintained a minuscule K% (league-low 17.4%).
This lineup is plenty viable against subpar right-handers and Greinke certainly fits the bill. He has a 7.60 ERA over his last seven starts, including an 11-hit, zero-strikeout outing vs. Cleveland at the end of June. He did hold the Guardians to 2 ER in that start.
Jose Ramirez (.198 ISO, .388 wOBA) is the obvious name to lock in, but Josh Naylor (.210 ISO, .379 wOBA) has been as good (if not better) against right-handers. Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez make sense as cheaper options. I wouldn’t mind Bo Naylor either, especially on DK where you need a catcher.
SUMMARY: We like the Cleveland offense now. They make for a nice stack at reasonable ownership. Even if Greinke is chased early, he’ll give way to a bullpen with the 3rd-worst ERA this season.
As I often do with teams I stack, I’ll also be taking the Guardians team total Over 4.5 (-130 on PointsBet).
Padres Pounding Lefties vs. Old Man Rich Hill
San Diego is the offense that’ll tempt you to save some money with Civale. The Padres are 4th in ISO and 6th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
With the help of some small samples (looking at you Matthew Batten), today’s projected lineup has a .318 ISO and a .428 wOBA vs. LHPs. And, of course, they’re priced accordingly. Shoot, Fernando Tatis is only $700 cheaper than Civale on DK.
Hill has allowed 15 ER in 20.2 IP this month, along with a gruesome 14:9 K:BB. He’s held lefties in check, but righties have a 51% hard-hit rate against him.
SUMMARY: It’s likely contingent on rostering Civale (or someone even cheaper), but the Padres stack might have the most upside on the slate. I’ll be doing my best to fit Tatis and Manny Machado along with cheaper guys like Ha-Seong Kim and whoever starts at catcher (Sanchez and Campusano are both viable).