Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (May 16)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
There’s going to be a buy-low opportunity on Alek Manoah. We’re not there yet, but it’s coming. He can’t be broken forever.
Kevin Gausman When They Hit It vs. Kevin Gausman When They Don’t Hit It
Gausman is 92nd percentile in K% and 94th percentile in BB%. He’s also 97th percentile in chase rate. Basically if the ball gets to the catcher’s mitt, good things are happening.
But when there’s contact? Yeesh. Gausman is allowing career highs in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He’s had six quality starts, including four scoreless outings, along with two absolute disasters (7+ ER in less than five innings).
The question is whether the Yankees can make enough contact to get to Gausman. New York has the 7th-highest CSW% (called strike + swinging strike rate). They’re 19th in chase rate.
SUMMARY: Game logs aren’t everything, but Gausman fired seven scoreless with 11 Ks against this lineup a few weeks ago. The massive upside is there. Gausman won’t be low-owned, but we have his ownership projected behind some of the other aces (Kershaw, Javier).
Two of our guys over at ScoresAndOdds already bet Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (-115 on BetMGM).
Texas Facing a Weak Lefty vs. Coors Field
The Rangers are today’s answer to “which stack has the upside of the Coors Field game?” Texas is top five in all major offensive categories vs. LHPs. Jared Shuster has two career starts to his name and he’s allowed 8 ER over 8.2 innings.
This lineup is expected to get Corey Seager back today, giving them six hitters with above-average ISOs and seven with above-average hard-hit rates against lefties.
Now, the Rangers are expensive. You won’t be able to fit them in addition to a Rockies or Reds stack, it’ll have to be instead of those teams.
SUMMARY: If you’re looking to get away from the Coors chalk, Texas is the way to go. Virtually the entire lineup is viable, but I’d start with Seager and Adolis Garcia then mix in Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe and Ezequiel Duran depending on who you can fit.
Give me the Rangers’ team total Over 4.5 (-115 on DraftKings) as well.
Jordan Montgomery Mediocre Skills vs. Milwaukee’s Continued LHP Struggles
We picked on the Brew Crew a couple of weeks back with another low-upside lefty (Tyler Anderson) and we’re going back to the well on Tuesday.
Milwaukee continues to be dreadful against southpaws, dead last in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and a distant 1st in K%. The Brewers’ 31% strikeout rate vs. LHPs is 3.6% higher than the next-closest team.
Montgomery has lost five straight decisions, but he hasn’t pitched terribly. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in six-of-eight starts despite averaging less than a strikeout per inning. He’s the 12th-most expensive SP on FanDuel and the 13th-most expensive SP on DraftKings.
SUMMARY: The matchup has juiced Montgomery’s projection ahead of bigger names like Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Lance Lynn. I’m inclined to take the savings on him to afford the expensive hitting stacks.