Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (May 23)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Solid Friday for the article. Hit the Lane Thomas HR bet and Paxton had another nice outing. Curious to see how the sites price Paxton against the Angels tomorrow.
Oakland’s Wikipedia Lineup vs. Marco Gonzales’ Minimal Skills
The Athletics are an uninspiring mix of failed prospects and AAAA players. It’s the type of lineup where you end up Googling half the guys just to remember who they are and how they got to Oakland.
Counterpoint … Marco Gonzales. The veteran lefty was hammered for 8 ER over 1.2 IP in his last start. He’s given up 13 runs over 13.2 innings in May.
The Athletics are actually above league average against LHPs. They’re currently 11th in wRC+ and 14th in OPS. Not the kind of eye-popping rankings we usually highlight, but important considering the perception of this Oakland group.
SUMMARY: No one is going to play these guys. Only Aledmys Diaz on DraftKings is above 6% pOWN. It’s an intriguing situation for tournaments. Brent Rooker and Ramon Laureano are a good duo to start with (high ISOs vs. LHPs) and you can mix in cheapies like Jesus Aguilar and Diaz.
I’ll take Rooker to hit a home run as well (+390 on FanDuel).
Sonny Gray’s Pending Regression vs. His Strikeout Upside
Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider headline this slate. Unsurprisingly, they project as the two highest-owned SPs.
If you’re hunting for a pivot option who could match their strikeout potential, Gray might be the play. He’s flipped his arsenal, fading the 4-seamer and sinker for his curveball and cutter. The new mix has led to a K/9 (10.95) we haven’t seen since the shortened 2020 campaign. Gray has 7+ strikeouts in 5-of-9 starts. His ceiling projection is actually slightly higher than Strider’s on FanDuel.
There are some red flags. Gray’s 1.64 ERA is nowhere near his (still solid) 3.16 xERA. His 84.2% LOB is by far a career high and the 41.1% hard-hit rate is his highest since 2016. Not to mention Gray’s allowed exactly ZERO home runs.
SUMMARY: San Francisco has six hitters with strikeout rates above 21% vs. RHPs. There’s an opportunity for Gray to challenge Cole/Strider as the highest-scoring SP. He should provide some savings along with an ownership discount.
Drew Smyly’s Efficiency vs New York’s Contact Skills
Smyly made an appearance in this space a couple weeks back and delivered a quality start + win against Minnesota. I mentioned efficiency is the key, as the Cubs have limited his innings and pitch counts. Smyly only threw 75 pitches in that start, and followed it with another strong outing against Houston (1 ER in 6 IP), but again on just 84 pitches.
The Mets make a ton of contact, especially against LHPs. Their projected lineup has a tiny 14.0% strikeout rate vs. lefties. But that also helps keep their pitches per plate appearance down. New York is 22nd in Pit/PA.
Smyly is only $8.9K on FanDuel and $7.3K on DraftKings.
SUMMARY: There isn’t a ton of upside here, but the matchup should lead to another efficient outing for Smyly. He makes sense as a cheap SP, in particular if you aren’t paying up for two aces on DK.