Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (May 9)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
It was a huge Friday for the article; probably the best performance of the season. Great starts from Tanner Bibee and Graham Ashcraft plus a two-homer game from Anthony Santander. Let’s keep rolling!
Brandon Pfaadt’s Awful Debut vs. His Price on Both Sites
Pfaadt’s first career start was a disaster. Texas beat him up for 7 ER over 4.2 IP, including four home runs. Pfaadt allowed a 93.8 MPH average exit velocity and a goofy 63.2% hard-hit rate.
But that was the Rangers. They’re good! Miami is far less imposing, especially against RHPs (they’ve actually hit lefties well). The Marlins are 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handers.
This is the ideal soft landing spot for Pfaadt after a difficult debut. And he’s the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings.
SUMMARY: People will be scared away from Pfaadt. Trust the pedigree here. He’s clearly mispriced for his upside.
Kansas City’s Red-Hot Offense vs. Lucas Giolito’s Hot Start
Every sample is a small sample right now, however, Kansas City’s recent stretch is such a drastic improvement that we have to take notice. The Royals spent the first few weeks of the season at the basement of the offensive leaderboards, but they’ve been sizzling over the past ten days.
Kansas City is 4th or better in every major offensive category vs. RHPs during that stretch. They got to alleged Cy Young contender Dylan Cease for 7 ER on Monday, ultimately putting up a dozen runs on the White Sox.
Giolito continued dominating last week, holding Minnesota to just two hits over 7 IP. He’s only had one truly bad start, a 7 ER stinker vs. Pittsburgh.
SUMMARY: Giolito will be somewhat popular, but I’m playing the Kansas City stack. Only Bobby Witt projects to draw significant ownership. Let’s build around the power + fly balls of Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and MJ Melendez.
With Jordan Lyles on the other side, the First 5 Innings total of 4.5 runs seems a little light. Give me the Over (-110 on BetMGM).
George Kirby’s Skills vs. Texas’ Potent Offense
The strikeouts haven’t been there for Kirby, but he’s rattled off five straight quality starts. His WHIP is under 1 and he’s allowed just two home runs over 30.2 IP.
Pretty easy to see why Kirby is currently projected as the highest-owned SP on FanDuel and DraftKings.
This will be his toughest test of the season, though. Kirby’s benefitted from a handful of easy matchups (Cleveland, Colorado, St. Louis, Oakland), and he got the Phillies without Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto.
SUMMARY: Texas is the second-highest scoring team in the league. I’m fading Kirby here given the matchup. He has the skills to navigate this tough lineup, but the risk outweighs the reward.