Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (September 5)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Favorite small sample of the day: Davis Schneider has a .640 ISO and a .627 wOBA vs. LHPs in 30 plate appearances.
Toronto’s Plate Discipline vs. Ken Waldichuk’s Control Issues
The Blue Jays certainly won’t be sneaky today, but the projected ownership isn’t scaring me off. I’ll be getting different elsewhere.
Toronto is 3rd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs since the start of July. They’re also 1st in K/BB against lefties on the season, and that’s a big issue for Waldichuk. The young lefty has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, but he hasn’t shaken the bad walk rate in either role. Waldichuk is 9th percentile in BB% and doesn’t have the strikeout ability to overcome it (21.6% K%).
Not a ton of big power bats in this lineup; much more of a full stack for me.
SUMMARY: Schneider being the most expensive Blue Jay on FanDuel is amazing, and it might be the best way to get unique with this stack. Schneider/Guerrero/Springer + a cheapie or two is the play for me.
Dean Kremer’s Upside vs. Alternatives at SP
Seeing Kremer at $9K on FanDuel feels like an auto-fade at first glance, and then you see the rest of the pitching pool. Who else stands out? You’re either eating the massive chalk with Gerrit Cole or Chris Bassitt, rolling the dice on a struggling Framber Valdez or hoping Dylan Cease figures it out.
The Angels have been dreadful against RHPs since the start of August, ranking 28th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. And that’s with Shohei Ohtani in the lineup most nights, who’s now dealing with an oblique issue.
Kremer is a middling talent at best, but he works deep into games and pitches for a good team. That’s going to translate into quality starts and wins.
SUMMARY: It’s an ugly pitching pool. I usually try to fade high-owned SPs in my single-entry lineups, which means crossing off Cole and Bassitt. That leaves Kremer as the best bet for a quality start and win, which might be all it takes on this slate.
Kyle Hendricks’ Approach vs. Windy Wrigley Weather
Hendricks was going to be my top target until the weather report came out. “Warm, humid, winds are out to left at 15mph … the hitters trifecta,” according to Kevin Roth.
So not ideal for pitchers, though maybe not a death sentence for someone who pitches like Hendricks? He never strikes anyone out (9th percentile), but also never walks anyone (9th percentile) and limits hard contact at an excellent rate (98th percentile in hard-hit rate, 90th percentile in average exit velocity). It could be a recipe for surviving the windy weather.
I’ll probably just find the extra $900 for Kremer on FD. On DK, they’re both under $9K. If you’re going double-cheap at SP, I don’t hate that pairing.
SUMMARY: The wind is a major factor, but there’s a chance Hendricks’ mix of skills can navigate it. He should be included as a cheap SP2 option on DK, especially as leverage against the San Francisco bats.