MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, September 3
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
With Coors Field only on the FanDuel slate, there’s not much strategy to discuss there. Play the Blue Jays chalk against Chase Anderson with whomever you want, or fade them to really, really play whomever you want. The decision has nothing to do with Anderson or the Jays’ stats. On DraftKings, there aren’t many teams I feel great about, but those teams that are great today are really great today for different reasons.
Chalk Stacks – Marlins at Josiah Gray and Red Sox at Taylor Clarke and Zack Greinke
Josiah Gray doesn’t miss many bats, and he walks a ton of people, but he isn’t giving up many homers this year: 1.18 HR/9 on a reasonable 11.0% HR/FB rate. His barrel rate is up near 9.0%, but we’re only talking about a 75.8% contact rate because of the 4.64 BB/9.
Any time we’re talking about this many walks against a lineup that has had a 9.1% barrel rate against righties, we wanna play the lineup. But do we wanna play the lineup as chalk?
Between Jake Burger, Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, and Josh Bell, there’s plenty of power from which to curate full stacks without holding our noses to play Luis Arraez, Joey Wendle, or whoever catches.
The Marlins can totally break the slate when we factor in that the Nationals bullpen is projected by THE BAT as a bottom-three bullpen, but do we wanna stack them more than the Red Sox, who are floating in the same pOWN% range.
The Red Sox don’t just draw a really bad Zack Greinke, but do so in Kauffman Stadium, which plays as a hitters park in the heat. It’ll be 92 degrees at first pitch in Kansas City and slowly rising during the game.
The shell of Greinke is really terrible right now, and he is the projected long reliever in a bullpen game for the Royals. Though he isn’t walking anyone, he has had a 5.09 xERA and 1.73 HR/9 allowed. His barrel rate allowed is only 8.1%, and it’s on an 84.8% contact rate. The Red Sox don’t strike out much as it is, so we should have a high quantity of high-quality contact from Boston today.
Greinke has no significant splits in the Statcast data, but his ISO allowed against lefties has been .250 versus .150 to righties, while his wOBA allowed to lefties has been .406 to .293 against righties. So there’s an edge to Rafael Devers and Triston Casas over Trevor Story and Adam Duvall, but all four are the top plays in this lineup.
A couple of hours before lock, I’m not sure what I’m doing with either of these teams. They’re in good spots but not the best spots, and they do cost a lot in ownership. On FanDuel, where the Blue Jays in Coors Field are gonna suck up a lot of ownership, we should just go overweight on the Marlins and Red Sox, not overthinking things. I would not go underweight on either of these teams. The question is whether or not we go overweight and by how much.
My gut says to be slightly over on the Marlins and double the field on the Red Sox simply because the Red Sox are more likely to succeed. There aren’t many stacks to spread our money around, but spending 40% of lineups on these two isn’t as handcuffing as it might sound.
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