MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 16th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There is a ton of projected ownership flocking toward pitchers who give up a lot of power, so leverage is gonna be easy to come by on this slate to where we don’t have to be so careful with the chalk. I say to play the chalk and maximize the leverage with the chalk. Let’s discuss how.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, April 16th
CHALK STACKS
Dodgers vs. Patrick Corbin
Braves at Hunter Brown
Cubs at Tommy Henry
The Braves and Dodgers are interchangeable. Both are great offenses in good hitting environments. The Braves are coming in at just a tad more projected ownership, and dare I say that I think that’s gonna be a mistake by the field.
The Dodgers have the highest implied total on the board (6.05), and Patrick Corbin has a long track record of giving up dongs in bulk. His 1.61 HR/9 and 9.2% barrel rate aren’t the worst on the slate, but Dodger Stadium is one of the best hitting parks on the slate, those numbers are still really high, and the Dodgers are the Dodgers.
We should see six righties in the Dodgers lineup — Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Kike Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, and likely either Chris Taylor or Andy Pages. Corbin’s 8.5% barrel rate allowed to righties has been bad, but it’s the sneaky 12.1% coughed up to lefties that really intrigues me, as the Dodgers will have three lefties in the lineup with high barrel rates against LHP, Shohei Ohtani (16.5%), Freddie Freeman (11.3%), and Max Muncy (9.2%).
Because this is a play-everyone spot with reverse platoon splits involved, there are ways to play the Dodgers without our combos being too chalky.
The Braves draw Hunter Brown, who’s a fine pitcher, according to the scouting reports, but has yet to prove that he can consistently strike guys out and harness soft contact. He’s given up a 10.4% barrel rate on a 51.1% hard-hit rate with no splits to be seen. His fly-ball rate is low (21.7%), and his ground-ball rate is high (51.4%), but the Braves are adept at lifting the ball against just about anyone — especially Ozzie Albies (36.4% against RHP), Matt Olson (34.6%), and Marcell Ozuna (30.4%). Factor in the high barrel rates against RHP from Ronald Acuna (14.7%), Austin Riley (12.8%), Jarred Kelenic (10.9%), Michael Harris (10.4%), and Travis d’Arnaud (9.2%), and we have another play-everyone spot.
THE BAT has the Dodgers and Braves slightly identical, but our Opto% highly favors the Braves — ~14% to ~7%. We’re saying the ownership will be identical enough to not agonize over which of the two to prioritize. I say treat them equally and move on to other decisions with our time and energy in MME. In single-entry tournaments, I’m likely taking the Dodgers implied total over everything else on this slate.
The Cubs are projected for similar ownership right now, but I’m personally predicting that the Dodgers and Braves will gain steam at the expense of some Cubs ownership. This is a high-powered offense against a lefty, Tommy Henry, who has only a 6.9 K/9. The only thing keeping his contact rate down in the 80% range is that he has 3.67 BB/9 — 4.5 this season. The power hasn’t hurt him yet, but soon…
Henry’s generally a neutral ground ball to fly ball guy who gets hit hard by righties (47.5%) and surrenders a high fly-ball rate to them too (30%). I’m off of Cody Bellinger against this profile, but inject the barrel rates of Christopher Morel (23.6%), Dansby Swanson (12.1%), and Garrett Cooper (11.3%) into my veins. Alexander Canario bounced around a lot last year but has 60-grade raw power, according to FanGraphs, and hit 37 homers across the minors to go with 23 steals in 2022. There’s our 4-man stack right there. Pick whomever you want as the 5th man when full-stacking the Cubs in MME or as a single-entry pivot off of the Dodgers and Braves chalk.
But they will be owned, so they will cost us high exposure in MME to go overweight.
PIVOT STACKS
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