MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 22nd

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MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

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We have differing slates depending on the DFS site of your choice. DraftKings is going with a 10-game main slate that includes all games starting at 6:40 PM ET or later. FanDuel is going with an 8-game main slate that also starts at 6:40 PM ET but does not include the COL/OAK or ARI/LAD games in the late evening.

For the purposes of this article, we will focus on the 8 games that are mutually available on both sites.

All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, May 22nd

CHALK STACKS

Padres at Nick Martinez

Blue Jays vs. Nick Nastrini

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As has been the case for much of the season, we don’t officially have a “chalk” stack. Pitching is pretty solid across the board, and there are no obvious pitchers to pick on. The two spots that stand out are the Padres with a huge ballpark upgrade going into Cincinnati to face a low-strikeout pitcher, and the Blue Jays at home against an inexperienced rookie for the White Sox.

The Padres have been a top-10 offense this season, as their 110 wRC+ ranks 7th in MLB and their .317 wOBA ranks 9th. They also receive a huge park upgrade on the road in Great American Ballpark.

The Reds will send right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound for his 5th start of the season, as he has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. Martinez has seen his strikeout rate fall to just 17.7% and his ground-ball rate drop to 32.5% this season. The strikeouts (22.1%) and ground balls (50.6%) were both much stronger his last two seasons as a full-time starter for the Padres. However, he has excelled at managing contact this season, allowing just 27.3% hard hits and 3.1% barrels.

Jake Cronenworth has been the Padres best hitter against RHP in each of the last two seasons (not counting Juan Soto, who has moved on to New York), as he owns a .186 ISO and .334 wOBA.

Fernando Tatis Jr. still possesses the most upside thanks to his power/speed profile; he owns a .188 ISO against RHP and has stolen 35 bases since the beginning of last season.

Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar have been solid additions and should hit at/near the top of the order. Arraez would be an “only in stacks” option thanks to his lack of power, but Profar has actually posted a .171 ISO against RHP this season.

Manny Machado has had a rough season and may still be feeling the effects from his elbow surgery last year. His salary has fallen to levels where he is certainly still worth rostering.

Ha-Seong Kim has been moved down the order recently, but he still offers enough power (.153 ISO vs. RHP this season) and speed (11 stolen bases) to be useful.

Rookie Jackson Merrill and catcher Luis Campusano are value options that can be included to round out the stack.

According to the Top Stacks tool, the Padres project for the highest ownership on both sites. Although, neither the 13% on FD nor the 11.5% on DK are numbers that would cause me to fade them in any format. The larger issue would be their Opto% coming in short of pOWN% on both sites.

The park upgrade is enough for me to consider them among the top options of the slate, but it is not a slam-dunk spot by any means.

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Perhaps the best matchup of the slate belongs to the Blue Jays, as they take on rookie right-hander Nick Nastrini of the White Sox. Nastrini was acquired from the Dodgers in the Lance Lynn deal at last season’s trade deadline, and he has made just 2 big league starts. The results have not been pretty, as he has allowed 9 hits, 8 runs, and 7 walks in his 8 MLB innings. We should see a bad White Sox bullpen for a heavy workload in this one as well.

The Blue Jays have been disappointing this season, as both their 94 wRC+ and .298 wOBA are well below the league average. Davis Schneider and Danny Jansen have outhit the much bigger names in this Blue Jays lineup.

Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and George Springer have all struggled with elevated ground-ball rates, but this might be a matchup for them to get over those issues. Nastrini has not registered a ground-ball rate above 35% since the lowest levels of the minor leagues, and he has allowed a 42.9% fly-ball rate and 2.76 HR/9 in Triple-A this season.

Daulton Varsho is one of the few batters who holds the platoon advantage against Nastrini, and early data suggests Nastrini could have pretty wide splits with significant struggles against lefties.

The Blue Jays project as the 2nd-most-popular stack of the slate, but they are still barely cracking double-digit pOWN%. Also, unlike the Padres, their Opto% far exceeds their pOWN%.

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