MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/13/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have some serious rain to worry about today in a few games with CLE/CIN looking like a game to fade with winds blowing in at 15-20 mph and rain likely coming down at first pitch and getting heavier as the night goes on. I’m expecting this game to get PPD and the debut of Nick Lodolo to get pushed back a day but even if it somehow starts on time I’m not looking to target anyone here with too much risk this game doesn’t finish along with the ugly hitting conditions. KCR/STL is in a similar position with rain at first pitch and it getting much heavier the later it goes but if they move the start time to much later this evening this game might get played today but overall I’m probably avoiding this one too. BOS/DET is the final main slate game with rain to worry about although there’s less of a chance of a postponement with scattered showers in the area but a mid-game delay is not out of the question so pitchers in this one are a bit risky if they start the game but then have to stop for a couple hours and get pulled early.
UPDATE: KCR/STL has been POSTPONED
Games with wind blowing out include NYM/PHI (~10 mph), LAD/MIN (~17 mph), and SD/SF (~12 mph and only on FD main slate) while WSH/ATL and CHC/PIT both have 10-12 mph winds blowing in from right.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYM/PHI are +20% while ERA for LAD/MIN is -14%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
After putting up 16 runs yesterday the Braves currently have the highest projected team total today and are definitely a team to target especially with no rain concerns like a few other games. The Dodgers are also standing out as a team to stack with an over 5 run team total and wind blowing out almost 20 mph to center and facing a pitcher in Chris Paddack with a career HR/9 over 1.50. Houston is only on DK’s main slate but they too are close to a 5 team total and although Merrill Kelly looked good in his first outing this offense should still put up some runs today. I’m curious where Seiya Suzuki is going to hit in the order for the Cubs today as I think he’s earned higher than the 6-hole with 3 HR’s in his last two games and an OPS of 1.289 this season but regardless I love his price on FD of just $2,800. I’ll probably be fading the bats in the NYM/PHI game with the elite pitchers of Scherzer and Nola going while the SD/SF bats don’t excite me either with solid pitching on both sides in that one too in Manaea and Webb.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Marcell Ozuna is the same price he was yesterday ($2,900) and all he did was blast two HR’s and score over 45 FP. He has a tougher matchup against the righty Josiah Gray today but he’s a streaky hitter and that price is just a bit too cheap to fade for me today as I want some exposure to ATL bats. I also want some Dodgers exposure and Max Muncy for $3,000 is the first guy I’m locking in hitting cleanup with wind blowing out and a great price. Freddie Freeman for $3,600 is also a bit too cheap and will likely make my main build along with likely one of Mookie Betts ($3,800) or Trea Turner ($3,700). I already mentioned him but Seiya Suzuki is too cheap on FD at $2,800 coming off a multi-HR game and he’s increased his fantasy production in every game he’s played this season and although I’m not expecting him to increase the 37 FP he put up yesterday I think he should put up 10+ FP which is great for that price. I also like his teammate Ian Happ for $2,900 likely hitting cleanup with 2+ hits in every game he’s played this year. Some other FD value guys I like include Eddie Rosario ($2,800), Bobby Dalbec ($2,500), Michael Brantley ($2,900), and Bryan Reynolds ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings Ian Happ for $3,100 is my favorite value play and although he’s way more expensive than FD I still like Seiya Suzuki for $4,300 especially if he hits higher than the 6-hole. Getting Dodgers exposure is going to cost you more than FD but Max Muncy is still my favorite for the price at $4,300 and the same can be said for the Braves with Marcell Ozuna the best value at $4,400. Some other cheap DK hitters I’m looking at are Tyler Naquin ($3,700), Aristides Aquino ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($3,000), and Tyler Stephenson ($3,100).
My top pitcher today is Aaron Nola on both sites and for GPP’s I like Kyle Hendricks, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Lodolo (if that game plays).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn