MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/10/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
All games look clear from rain although CLE/CHW has a slight chance of seeing light rain towards the end of the game but not enough to cause any issues most likely.
TOR/NYY, NYM/WSH, CLE/CHW, and CHC/SDP all see slight winds blowing in while COL/SFG and TBR/LAA will see ~10mph winds blowing out. BAL/STL will have ~5mph winds blowing out but it will also be very hot with temps as high as 90 so expect some balls to fly far in that game. KCR/TEX, PHI/SEA, and MIA/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TOR/NYY are -13.8% while total runs for BAL/STL are +24.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Not much injuries to report as most lineups should have the usual guys depending on if the team is facing a lefty or righty but Manuel Margot tweaked his hamstring yesterday so he’ll likely be out which is a bummer as he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately and Brandon Belt has been scratched twice from the lineup with neck stiffness but for now he’s projected in.
My two favorite stacks today are the Cardinals and White Sox as both are at home facing mediocre righties in great hitting conditions with temps between 80 and 90 degrees in both games. I also like the Yankees as a GPP stack facing the lefty Kikuchi and yes they were just shut down by him six days ago but that was in Toronto so back in Yankee Stadium today I think they get to Kikuchi and could be a pretty low-owned team today. The Marlins and Giants are a couple of other stacks that I really like today as Bumgarner and Senzatela just don’t strike out many guys and both lineups are cheap especially on FanDuel.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I have to go back to the White Sox again like yesterday as they’re just too cheap especially Yoan Moncada ($2,800) and Yasmani Grandal ($2,400) while Tim Anderson and Luis Robert are both $3,600 which is too cheap for their upside especially as a full stack. I definitely want some STL exposure today with wind blowing out in 85+ degree heat against Bradish and for the price I love Juan Yepez at just $2,500 likely hitting 5th as all he has done is hit since joining the team with nine hits in his first five games. Tyler O’Neill is also at a great price of $3,300 and depending on your positional needs and salary available I would try getting in at least one of Nolan Arenado ($4,300) or Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900). If you need more value I really like Randy Arozarena at just $2,800 likely hitting 3rd or 4th with the platoon advantage on Detmers; Bobby Witt likely hitting leadoff for $2,600 with power and SB upside against the lefty Perez; and Garrett Cooper likely hitting 3rd or 4th at just $2,500 against Bumgarner. I have to mention Pete Alonso as a top spend-up option today as he’s very affordable at $3,800 coming off a two-HR game and is hitting .345 in 29 career AB’s against Corbin including a .379 ISO.
Looking at DraftKings Juan Yepez is standing out as my favorite value play at just $2,500 along with Garrett Cooper at $2,600 with both coming off HR games and great options to help spend up at other spots. The White Sox are much more expensive on DK than FD but I still like Yoan Moncada at $4,300 and Luis Robert for $5,100 and for cheap I like Gavin Sheets at $3,700. My top overall play is going to be Pete Alonso for just $4,800 as that’s just too cheap for a guy with multi-HR upside against a pitcher he has crushed in his career and Randy Arozarena ($3,900) and Bobby Witt ($3,400) are squarely in play as well for those prices. The Orioles have a bunch of cheap guys on DK today with Anthony Santander ($2,500) and Ryan Mountcastle ($2,400) coming in as my favorites for the price in great hitting weather. Other DK bats I’m considering include Mark Canha ($2,700), Brad Miller ($2,700) and Jorge Soler ($3,600).
There are some great pitching options today but I think Justin Verlander is still the SP1 on both sites while Carlos Carrasco, Lucas Giolito, and Aaron Nola are right behind him. Martin Perez for $6,500 on DK is standing out as a top salary saver at home against the Royals as Perez is yet to allow a HR this year and has just 1 ER in his last three starts. Jesus Luzardo, Alex Wood, and Garrett Whitlock are my favorite GPP pitchers today.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn