MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/24/2022
Big 14-game main slate to end the week with a lot of fun matchups including Joc Pederson vs. Tommy Pham in the last game of the night and Freddie Freeman makes his big return to Atlanta.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAD/ATL is the biggest rain spot to monitor as there will be scattered storms in the general area of the ballpark all night so depending on where they hit we could have a delay at any point of the game making the pitchers pretty risky. COL/MIN could have a few pop-up showers that might cause a delay but much less likely than in ATL.
CHC/STL, LAD/ATL, COL/MIN, and OAK/KCR will all see hot temps in the mid 80’s while HOU/NYY, BOS/CLE, BAL/CHW, and SEA/LAA are looking at temps in the mid to high 70s. PIT/TBR, WSH/TEX, TOR/MIL, and DET/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/STL are +13% while total runs for LAD/ATL are +36%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Byron Buxton remains out with his knee soreness while George Springer elbow will keep him out at least another game as they determine the severity and don’t expect to see Ty France today as his wrist/elbow got bent back awkwardly on a play at first base yesterday causing him to leave immediately. Brandon Crawford has a slight chance to return in the last game of the night while Josh Harrison is likely out for the White Sox with a triceps contusion so look for Leury Garcia or newly called up Lenyn Sosa to get the call at 2B today and it’s sounding like Manny Machado could pinch-hit soon but isn’t ready to play in the field yet and Salvador Perez is out indefinitely after thumb surgery. KeBryan Hayes is also out of the lineup after hurting his shoulder yesterday.
There’s a few stacks I really like tonight in the Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Giants. The Twins, Orioles, and Angels are close behind but I prefer the matchups of the first five stacks mentioned and for GPP longshots I like taking a chance on the Cubs and Diamondbacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Max Muncy for just $2,600 hitting in hot and humid Atlanta coming off a 3 hit game with an HR and I also want Freddie Freeman for just $4,000 as he’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball with 3 HR’s over his last four games and you know he wants to hit one against his former team. With Springer still out for Toronto Santiago Espinal will hit leadoff again I will definitely be using him for just $2,200 and also on the Jays I love the salaries of Bo Bichette ($3,100), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000), and Alejandro Kirk ($3,000) as a very cheap, high-upside stack. The Twins are another team with some nice value options in Max Kepler ($2,500), Luis Arraez ($3,200), and Carlos Correa ($3,300) in great hitting conditions against Marquez who’s allowed 6 HR’s over his last four starts. One more cheap mini-stack I really like is Tim Anderson ($3,300) and Jose Abreu ($3,100) who have combined for 10 hits over their last three games and I’m expecting to the White Sox to put up some runs today against Voth. Some more value FD bats I like include Jarren Duran ($2,700), Will Smith ($2,900), Marcus Semien ($3,000), Brendan Rodgers ($2,700), Hunter Dozier ($2,300), Ramon Laureano ($2,500), Jesse Winker ($2,800), Patrick Wisdom ($3,000), Adley Rutschman ($2,400), and Trey Mancini ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings the Dodgers are super expensive so aren’t a cash game priority for me along with Bichette and Hernandez for TOR while Espinal ($4,500) and Kirk ($4,300) are still pretty affordable. The Twins are also priced up compared to DK but Alex Kirilloff ($2,600) is still crazy cheap if you want some exposure and for the White Sox Jose Abreu ($4,000) is my favorite play for the price. The Cubs are actually looking like a place to go for value in Christopher Morel ($3,400), Ian Happ ($3,600), and Patrick Wisdom ($3,800) hitting in great conditions along with Nolan Gorman ($3,700) on the other side of that game. There’s plenty of other value options out there with my favorites being Jesse Winker ($3,300), Alek Thomas ($2,900), Trey Mancini ($3,500), Adley Rutschman ($3,300), Hunter Dozier ($3,000), Jarren Duran ($3,500), and Alex Verdugo ($3,100).
Aaron Nola is my SP1 on both sites especially if Machado remains out for the Padres and on DK I really like the price of Merrill Kelly ($7,900) as an SP2 against Detroit and for GPP’s I like Verlander, Severino, Pivetta, Bundy, and Manoah.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn