MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/8/22
Pretty straightforward 7-game slate to begin the week and we finally get a break from serious rain concerns!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Just one game has a slim chance of any rain in TOR/BAL but it’s definitely not a game to fade or anything as it’s looking at temps in the high 80s with wind blowing out at 9mph. CIN/NYM will also have great hitting weather with temps in the mid 80s and 10-13mph wind blowing out to left but WSH/CHC will see wind blowing in at 15mph in 70 degree temps which should benefit pitchers. SFG/SDP and LAA/OAK will see temps in the low 70s and high 60s with slight breezes blowing out and the dome games are PIT/ARI & NYY/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TOR/BAL are +25.2% while total runs for CIN/NYM are +32.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
George Springer landed on the IL over the weekend with his elbow injury so Whit Merrifield will hit leadoff today as Gurriel is getting a day off while the Orioles will get Austin Hays back from his oblique injury. The Giants will get Evan Longoria back from the IL but won’t have Yermin Mercedes as he was DFA’d to make room for Thairo Estrada return from the IL yesterday. Mitch Haniger came off the IL Saturday for Seattle and Julio Rodriguez is targeting a return later this week while the Yankees could be without Anthony Rizzo again today with his back injury.
The Mets and Blue Jays are the clear top stacks today both hitting in the best weather of the slate with the Mets as my 1A stack facing Justin Dunn who was just promoted from AAA where he has a 6.75 ERA in 28 IP this season. Toronto gets Lyles in Camden Yards where he has been much better than on the road but with a team total over 5 in great hitting weather I will be all over Jays bats as my 1B stack behind the Mets. Arizona is my next favorite stack with a team total around 5 currently at home against Beede who is more of an opener than a starter but did get shelled in his last “start” for 4 ER in just an inning pitched and I’m not worried about any pitchers after Beede as the Pirates’ bullpen has the 5th highest ERA in MLB at 4.40 with the 9th most HR’s allowed. I also like the Padres and Orioles as stacks both at home facing blow-up prone lefties and although the wind is blowing in at Wrigley the Cubs are a decent GPP stack option as Anibal Sanchez is just a really bad pitcher at this point of his career having allowed 6 HRs and 17 ERs over his last four starts this season.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m targeting Mets first with Brandon Nimmo ($3,200) and Daniel Vogelbach ($3,000) as my top value options and then Pete Alonso ($4,200) and Francisco Lindor ($3,900) as my favorite expensive options while Marte, McNeil, and Naquin are all great options as well. Next I’m looking at TOR and ARI value in Whit Merrifield ($3,100) and Bo Bichette ($3,400) being my favorite Jays bats for the price and I will pick and choose between Rojas, Thomas, Marte, Walker, and Varsho for ARI depending on positional needs and salary available. Some more FD value bats to consider today include Alejandro Kirk ($3,000), Raimel Tapia ($2,700), Adley Rutschman ($3,100), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100), Ramon Urias ($2,800), Ryan McKenna ($2,000), Seiya Suzuki ($2,800), Jesse Winker ($2,700), and Josh Donaldson ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite overall play is Daniel Vogelbach at just $3,700 and I really like Whit Merrifield hitting leadoff for TOR at $4,300. Brandon Nimmo ($4,700), Bo Bichette ($4,500), and Teoscar Hernandez ($4,600) are my next favorite plays and for ARI I’m looking at Alek Thomas ($3,600), Christian Walker ($3,800), and Daulton Varsho ($4,100) for value options. If you need some extreme value I’d consider Victor Robles ($2,300), Yadiel Hernandez ($2,000), Rafael Ortega ($2,600), Ryan McKenna ($2,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100), Jonah Bride ($2,400), Chad Pinder ($2,800), Jo Adell ($2,500), or J.D. Davis ($2,200).
Chris Bassitt and Blake Snell are my top SPs today while Zac Gallen on DK is very close behind them at just $7,900. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley I think Keegan Thompson is a fine value option on DK for just $6,700 and I don’t mind taking shots on Suarez, Irvin, Taillon, or Gilbert in GPPs.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn